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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Cheer up folks as we all know this is a rapidly evolving situation and the models will playout all the possible outcomes and some runs will be better for cold than others.  it doesn't mean the last runs are going to happen and the next set will show a different outcome.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I see what you’re doing here & I agree it’s not a bad method to keep grounded. but it’s dangerous in here... a lot of members will take it as downgrades, it’s all bust..  ?

Yes i think you are right there Karlos- Blue is for sure someone who knows his eggs, any hint of negativity from Blue and i reach for the bottle ..

Humour aside i'm relieved the op was a mild outlier- would be very helpful if the 12z ops are better viewing though..

Edited by northwestsnow
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My mood is neutral this morning !

Prospects haven’t got worse but neither are we seeing proper cold being ushered in with great fan fare!

I think we’re in a holding pattern , the models throw in some suggestions of better to come but have tended to drop the baton before the finish line so far .

 

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps stay solid .....

Phew!!

I'm sure thats made people feel much better Bue ?

Excellent new rgds Fergies comments..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Phew!!

I'm sure thats made people feel much better Bue ?

I was just thinking, as long as that graph stays similar - no worries yet - could operational's be better? yes, but nothing a good GFS 6z wouldn't put right.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was just thinking, as long as that graph stays similar - no worries yet - could operational's be better? yes, but nothing a good GFS 6z wouldn't put right.

TBH as soon as i saw the EC mean rolling out i felt quite relaxed det would be faulty..

As i said earlier, could do with a decent det this evening- hopefully the last wobble before we see some stonking operational's..

I got some nice long johns for christmas, they need christening lol..

Edited by northwestsnow
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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH as soon as i saw the EC mean rolling out i felt quite relaxed det would be faulty..

As i said earlier, could do with a decent det this evening- hopefully the last wobble before we see some stonking operational's..

I got some nice long johns for christmas, they need christening lol..

Nothing wrong with the op ... control similar and a stonking fi follows 

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16 day 0z temp anomalies looking rather good for the UK

2m temp for my area also looking good, think they are the best so far, save most on my phone and it looks at least as good if not slightly better than the 18z, the mean is certainly lower than a few days a go and that's a good trend for me ?

Not a lot to be downbeat with this morning, although we'd love consistency from the models all the way through to potential cold weather arriving, experience tells me we'll have a few wobbles getting there

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nothing wrong with the op ... control similar and a stonking fi follows 

Guessing the low dives SE to leave us in a very cold easterly on the EC control?

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With regard tweets. Here is the thread. It is called Model Tweets. Please read Paul's introduction. I am now going to move all the above posts.

Lol. Goodness knows why Fergie's bit has appeared.

Edited by Blessed Weather
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2 hours ago, KTtom said:

Strange, but all I see from the ukmo day 6 is a strong vortex posting a westerly through the UK...ecm has a southwesterly at day 6 and gfs has a monster vortex throughout...Perhaps I'm being negative by only looking at the UK weather.

Your not being negative, just taking the charts at face value. There will always be the background signals, or blocking appearing appearing in the N.H charts, but as long as a chunk of PV is sat over Greenland it really doesn't bode well.

Edited by Lloyds32
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