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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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Cheer up folks as we all know this is a rapidly evolving situation and the models will playout all the possible outcomes and some runs will be better for cold than others.  it doesn't mean the last runs are going to happen and the next set will show a different outcome.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I see what you’re doing here & I agree it’s not a bad method to keep grounded. but it’s dangerous in here... a lot of members will take it as downgrades, it’s all bust..  😬

Yes i think you are right there Karlos- Blue is for sure someone who knows his eggs, any hint of negativity from Blue and i reach for the bottle ..

Humour aside i'm relieved the op was a mild outlier- would be very helpful if the 12z ops are better viewing though..

Edited by northwestsnow

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My mood is neutral this morning !

Prospects haven’t got worse but neither are we seeing proper cold being ushered in with great fan fare!

I think we’re in a holding pattern , the models throw in some suggestions of better to come but have tended to drop the baton before the finish line so far .

 

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40 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Where's that for location wise pls?

central northern England 

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Simple post

 

Nothings really changed 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps stay solid .....

Phew!!

I'm sure thats made people feel much better Bue 🙂

Excellent new rgds Fergies comments..

Edited by northwestsnow

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Phew!!

I'm sure thats made people feel much better Bue 🙂

I was just thinking, as long as that graph stays similar - no worries yet - could operational's be better? yes, but nothing a good GFS 6z wouldn't put right.

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4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

central northern England 

Ta, I'm liking those ppn spikes alongside dropping temps

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was just thinking, as long as that graph stays similar - no worries yet - could operational's be better? yes, but nothing a good GFS 6z wouldn't put right.

TBH as soon as i saw the EC mean rolling out i felt quite relaxed det would be faulty..

As i said earlier, could do with a decent det this evening- hopefully the last wobble before we see some stonking operational's..

I got some nice long johns for christmas, they need christening lol..

Edited by northwestsnow

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All. Please note that there is a separate thread for tweets. Any more will be moved to the appropriate thread. There is also a media topic.

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH as soon as i saw the EC mean rolling out i felt quite relaxed det would be faulty..

As i said earlier, could do with a decent det this evening- hopefully the last wobble before we see some stonking operational's..

I got some nice long johns for christmas, they need christening lol..

Nothing wrong with the op ... control similar and a stonking fi follows 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Nothing wrong with the op ... control similar and a stonking fi follows 

It was a mild outlier Blue?

OK, so maybe some pain for long term gain?

🙂

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Nothing wrong with the op ... control similar and a stonking fi follows 

Yeah, control is not bad😜

AAA7DE5F-B891-4A82-BB32-093B1FC11C0A.png

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Can someone tell me why there is no GFSP today, thanks.

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16 day 0z temp anomalies looking rather good for the UK

2m temp for my area also looking good, think they are the best so far, save most on my phone and it looks at least as good if not slightly better than the 18z, the mean is certainly lower than a few days a go and that's a good trend for me 🙂

Not a lot to be downbeat with this morning, although we'd love consistency from the models all the way through to potential cold weather arriving, experience tells me we'll have a few wobbles getting there

graphe6_1000___-1.833_54.8518_.gif

IMG_20190109_083228.jpg

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1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Yeah, control is not bad😜

AAA7DE5F-B891-4A82-BB32-093B1FC11C0A.png

Think Blue meant EC control..

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Looks like ECM was a cold outlier for the Dutch later  so god knows how to interpret thatScreenshot_20190109-084851_Chrome.thumb.jpg.05a0f6f11f8848bcb2f2da87caac3274.jpg

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nothing wrong with the op ... control similar and a stonking fi follows 

Guessing the low dives SE to leave us in a very cold easterly on the EC control?

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It was a mild outlier Blue?

OK, so maybe some pain for long term gain?

🙂

Transient warm sector 

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Posted (edited)

With regard tweets. Here is the thread. It is called Model Tweets. Please read Paul's introduction. I am now going to move all the above posts.

Lol. Goodness knows why Fergie's bit has appeared.

Edited by Blessed Weather

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11 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Can someone tell me why there is no GFSP today, thanks.

I believe it's to do with a government shutdown significantly reducing weather services from the US.

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8 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

With regard tweets. Here is the thread. It is called Model Tweets. Please read Paul's introduction. I am now going to move all the above posts.

Lol. Goodness knows why Fergie's bit has appeared.

Banned!!! Lol....but yes thanks for the constant tidying up!

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, KTtom said:

Strange, but all I see from the ukmo day 6 is a strong vortex posting a westerly through the UK...ecm has a southwesterly at day 6 and gfs has a monster vortex throughout...Perhaps I'm being negative by only looking at the UK weather.

Your not being negative, just taking the charts at face value. There will always be the background signals, or blocking appearing appearing in the N.H charts, but as long as a chunk of PV is sat over Greenland it really doesn't bode well.

Edited by Lloyds32

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