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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
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Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    12z GFS is a downgrade if your looking for a strong easterly, but it's not a bad run and still on the cold side.

    And of course between now and then the strength of the Easterly will wax and wane

    Also in true GFS fashion disappear only to appear later  

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Maybe the GFS is struggling again because of the government shutdown..

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Reminds me of some of the initially 'marginal' set-ups from the late sixties: snow to sleet to snow to fizzle-out to patchy dense freezing fog...followed, couple of days' later, by a bone-chilling blast from the Continent...:cold:

    image.thumb.png.4b5cbda14e31be50b60e46ea4dedc300.png

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    A better prog perhaps..

    As height align draws more from the NE- sector..with a bigger punch and quicker...to the deep cold...

    We remain in very decent teritory!!

    gfsnh-1-168.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire

    So basically, the downgrade is it's not "Day After Tomorrow" territory then.

     

    I'm as confused as a man who's put in a barrel and told to go sit in the corner. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    Just now, Daniel Smith said:

    Maybe the GFS is struggling again because of the government shutdown..

    Why? because it’s downgraded come on! ?

    Just now, Daniel Smith said:

    Maybe the GFS is struggling again because of the government shutdown..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    1 minute ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    Why? because it’s downgraded come on! ?

     

    I was being sarcastic. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    GEM also disappointing, will we be left with just KING GFS by the end of the day!

    gem-0-168.thumb.png.61caecf6ef17e5f9032d621e08b48747.png

    Caveat GEM has never really been with the program.

    Edited by IDO
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    12 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    Man it's so confusing in here it's unbelievable ? Is this a downgrade/upgrade ????

    With experience you will start to learn who to listen to and who to ignore on this forum. 

    12z’s so far show a variation to the theme. We will keep getting these variations until we get the easterly into the 72/96hr time frame. We’re still on the right path. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    The models tend to have an eastward bias as shown with the slider over the next couple of days. At one point it was sliding down the coast of Norway. 

    Im sure the pattern for next week will be further west given known model bias. 

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 minute ago, booferking said:

    Whats the odds the FV3 becomes the gold choice model in 1hr flips against the others.?

    The same odds that people will make the same joke every day for the rest of winer. Your not getting odds on a dead cert pal

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    Just now, Kieran said:

    Country wide snow event showing again on the GFS for Tuesday. How likely to happen do you all think this is??? ❄️☃️?

    I’d say fairly likely now that at least some will see a snow event Tues. There isn’t many models not backing it. Sweet spot looks to be NW especially with elevation but it will come down to 24hrs before and the high res models to decipher 

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    Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

     

    Thats why US forecasters always pick it ahead of the others for nor’easters.

    Interestingly The Met mentioned in their Media output that a system of the West Coast of the US which is due to become a Nor'easter and firing up the Jet is the cause of the uncertainty

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The GFS fails with the first try and we will have to see another attempt around D10 to get sustained cold blocking.

    We have a small window as after D7 we see a Pacific Ridge and this will tighten up the PV and send lower heights to the Atlantic. If we don't get a block by then, we will have to await the next turn!

    D9 >>> 1927570796_gfs-0-216(2).thumb.png.f83f171eee034d5f97177f41ef7cb487.png

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