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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

icon-0-114.png

Icon is further East, would this indicate a flatter pattern after this piont?

I thought it looked better  tighter storm  

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ICON edging towards the GFS and ECM shearing more of the low off hopefully helping high to get further North.

icon-0-120.png

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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I thought it looked better  tighter storm  

better ridging  also at 126 hrs

Edited by swfc
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2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Usual rant from me, these "snow depth charts" are in no way indicative of what the EC is actually showing. The algorithms in them are hyped up purely for clickbait, that's the only explanation I can think of.

Edit: Just noticed that foot and a half of snow near Dublin, yeah alright ?

Yeah Nick well aware, re the accum charts, but posted merely to show that nearly whole of UK would see some snow falling at some point from the EC run. To be fair in March they weren't that far off the mark where I live but that was exceptional circumstances.

Screenshot_20190117-073952_Chrome.jpg

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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I thought it looked better  tighter storm  

Yeah the storm or the Eastern US is further west than the 0z Icon run

iconnh-0-126.png?17-12image.thumb.png.a1728729e67486c741e71e3b51ac32a8.png

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Better icon and more amplified across the eastern us!!trough is dropping straight through alright!

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Definitely moving in the right direction 12z vs 00z good to see?

icon-0-126.png

icon-0-138.png

Edited by booferking
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People need 2 factor in hours..already past since last run/runs, 

Then-tack fact and cause..

But all in all- thats a good thing atm..

And catch up and float..is gaining on every run...

Edited by tight isobar
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Not this time from the icon.  onto the GFS  12z

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7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not this time from the icon.  onto the GFS  12z

Why? would you be able to explain for those less experienced (me included) as it helps to learn.  

Edited by P-M
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9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not this time from the icon.  onto the GFS  12z

Can you explain please ?

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5 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Could be a hectic rush hour on Tuesday

image.png

Can someone explain why the weather techs on TV don't even show this kind of setup next week they only show cloudy days and max temps of 7c .

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3 minutes ago, P-M said:

Why? would you be able to explain for those (me included) as it helps to learn.  

From what I know the trough drops into Europe too far east and not enough energy drops into Europe with it. This allows the high to move eastwards across us bringing westerlies.

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16 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Yeah Nick well aware, re the accum charts, but posted merely to show that nearly whole of UK would see some snow falling at some point from the EC run. To be fair in March they weren't that far off the mark where I live but that was exceptional circumstances.

Screenshot_20190117-073952_Chrome.jpg

I'm an hour south of Dublin,just 2 miles from the coast and only 162ft asl

Last march when Emma was done we had over 2 feet of level snow and roads blocked by 8ft drifts so that kind of total here isn't impossible,I've seen it a few times in my lifetime 

Edited by Tristrame
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2 minutes ago, P-M said:

Why? would you be able to explain for those (me included) as it helps to learn.  

Sorry   Basic summary on the Icon  first pic   the high does not amplify enough  and the low (ex storm ) energy goes over the top squashing the ridge  bringing in westerly winds.  The ecm  amplyfies the high and migrates to Scandi so the low cannot barrel over the top so the high stays in place and gives winds from a easterly direction. 

 

iconnh-0-153.png

ECH1-168.gif

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4 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Can someone explain why the weather techs on TV don't even show this kind of setup next week they only show cloudy days and max temps of 7c .

Becuase they are most likely are using a different model. I would expect them to change over the weekend.

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The problem with the ICON is that it's moving the USA storm Eastwards much faster than the other models - Worth noting NOAA went with an ECM EPS/GFS Blend beyond 36hrs so it would seem the ICON is being too progressive with that storm. 

It's slightly better on the 12z but not good enough and it sends energy East preventing the high from pushing Northwards in the Atlantic and this has a knock on effect to the UK weather. The good news is that the ICON seems to be largely on it's own at the moment regarding the storm track. 

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