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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Thats on the first notion..(still an open case!.)

The P- SAYS ITS GOUNG THE RITE WAY AS AN OVERALL SYNOP..

gfsnh-0-168 (1).png

Yep and hopefully it can turn around on the 12z run just need to dissect that low to open the snow gates..

Edited by booferking
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I’ve said before that I’m comfortable if one of the gfs/gfsp is in the right place 

however, we are now seeing important differences at day 5/6 and you would really want to see all ops singing the broad right tune at that timescale 

had we lost the normal gfs by now (as may well have have happpened) one wonders how quiet this thread would currently be ........

the clusters look good

i was reminded of looking at the wow extended clusters last Friday and now I’m seeing similar output in the extended but also the wow clusters are in the 6/10 day now !!!

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As for the para, yeah it's not going with it BUT it is doing a poor job it seems like with the USA winter storm and is too flabby and weak with it, which reduces WAA and makes it more likely to phase with other lows. We want that storm to stay strong and discrete. Yes it is a balancing act because too strong and it will flatten things anyway, but the oara is badly looking like the odd one out at the moment.

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I know it's a great time to be following the models at the moment, but if we can keep the full-on ramps etc to the banter thread, it'll be better for all those wanting to follow this thread. I've moved a few over there just now - it's only a click away (link at the top of every page on this thread), so should be simple to follow and take part-in next to this discussion ? 

 

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The global pattern is totally different on the 06p, luckily the ECM looks far closer to the 06z on the global stage (especially across the US/Canada).

Good to see that the para has the same issues as the op has though with overdoing it...no wonder the para has shown 0 improvement over the op.

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11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Snow fall / depth would be monumental if that 06z gfs run came true...level depths of 50cm in places! 

55217B7A-8A84-41BA-9262-EA796A5714F1.png

Spare a thought foe eastern Ireland who don’t even get a dusting while you guys dig yourselves outl! Though I know these maps are not worth much 

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3 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Spare a thought foe eastern Ireland who don’t even get a dusting while you guys dig yourselves outl! Though I know these maps are not worth much 

I've seen that before and it won't happen like that, more runs needed iam sticking with ECM/ukmo.

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46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What an absolute STONKER of a run, that was! And a fantastic finale, too...And, assuming it comes-off anything like that, a fabulous coup, for the teleconnections/long-term signals guys!:hi:

image.thumb.png.6f48a674b1bb9185122fba3a0e677b5e.png

One of best GFS runs I've seen Ed, especially for Tuesday, won't come off like that though

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Ok quick summary for folk catching up.

 

The Good.

image.thumb.png.5b44b2c8f136a042d5437fdbdebb344c.pngimage.thumb.png.15330300fbe603c4d48e9094a60d2a78.png  

 

The Bad

image.thumb.png.7da6372cc0dcaa2582d576ec35d5dfa6.png   

 

The Indifferent

image.thumb.png.dae9cc6b506ae411f1cf2f58a10a6a34.png

Its all to do with the storm off the Eastern side of the Us  we need that to stay tight to the coast and quite strong  this in tern will amplify the high   . Still loads to be resolved  as the GFS will testify 

image.thumb.png.93838a478c3223344c1db34ce2929aa0.png

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4 hours ago, geordiekev said:

Great to see the 0zs playing ball for a change, if they upgrade through the day as is the case normally we're in for some corkers and with snow melt not so much an issue this time of year, could certainly get very interesting. 

However, if I were you, you might want to double check your window, having ran to window and being on northern hill, think you must be seeing things as here zilch ?

But accum charts from ECM showing almost whole of UK in on action at some point in next 10.

Screenshot_20190117-073952_Chrome.jpg

Charts look amazing even for south east. 

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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Just as well its just for a laugh, horrendous chart for those in Poole/Bournemouth

I wouldn’t worry about that! Same charts were showing like that last year for the Match spell...... look what happened there ❄️❄️

Ignore the detail, the fact we have charts showing widespread snow chances is all that matters for now 

Edited by karlos1983
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About 50% of the clusters more or less support the det run at day ten although of course the truncated view to the east is a problem Thereafter merely emphasizes how tricky the evolution of the pattern is

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011700_240.thumb.png.8c53c089048f143eb2306192841ee0d5.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011700_312.thumb.png.0ed25c1f60a3e1e1395aaf133ef727cb.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011700_360.thumb.png.d0ed30d798f9f54b5dce447f8295d75f.png

 

Edited by knocker
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GFS para eventually gives us a very Luke cool shot as the Atlantic finally puffs out. But the run is throwing dartboard lows over the place and goes from slightly positive to raging  positive AO with a strengthen ing, though still fragmented PV.

What might be true is it may require a couple of bites to get the upper blocking in, but GFSP takes the biscuit on that one!

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15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The question was it an outlier?

graphe3_1000_256_31___.gif

No it has support even in the south East
graphe3_1000_337_158___.gif

Yeah it is (day 6+), probably expected given those charts, that said, it takes a couple of members with it.

Mind you, on a plus note, those means are fabulous.

Edited by Skyraker
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12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I wouldn’t worry about that! Same charts were showing like that last year for the Match spell...... look what happened there ❄️❄️

Ignore the detail, the fact we have charts showing widespread snow chances is all that matters for now 

NW Bingo coming up,.....yep get the cold in first and then the snow will follow

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