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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

That's some cold pool out east. There don't seem to be any of those pesky wee 'mild' bits, either:

image.thumb.png.699bab87ec4bb68c6e9919eeed2e0278.png

Nope. Deep midwinter cold with very little solar energy. An easterly has the potential to be very potent at this time of year! 

@s4lancia called it just about right with his probabilities earlier on I think. About 65% in favour of an easterly right now, but details to be defined. 

If easterly sets up a shown by Wednesday/Thursday as shown in GFS 6z then you would expect to see disturbances travelling East to West towards the UK. 

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And when we have another PV segment displacement and NW/SE trough, (imo likely as Scandi to be influential directly, then indirectly then directly etc etc) the air is so cold that insignificant warming (if any) out occurs.  Massive nationwide snow event towards end of month to support previous snowfall.  

That is one seriously cold run .......the evolution is plausible too, the depth of cold....? It’s so good even just getting 60-70 % of its potency would still be very wintry!!!  So a great start continues

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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