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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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It's important what happens over the pond, I know their is a lot of uncertainty from the pros about the final outcome. Need to see these charts in the reliable at 96 hours ahead  before we open the champagne corks! 

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8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In terms of the upstream pattern over the USA and Canada .

Still uncertainty there day 5 onwards in relation to the speed and amplitude of several shortwaves which have originated in the Pacific.

NCEP commented that the latest GFS and GEFS are more progressive . This is why you don’t have the later fireworks because this effects where the PV goes .

The more progressive pattern pushes that further se , the ECM pulls the PV lobe further away .

 

Spot on Nick , to many times eye candy charts have downgraded closer we get to T+0 as the energy over the pond gets modelled better

 

Im wondering also what impact snow cover in the Alps (if any ) may play in cooling temps at the surface should we draw a more continetal feed next week 

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10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In terms of the upstream pattern over the USA and Canada .

Still uncertainty there day 5 onwards in relation to the speed and amplitude of several shortwaves which have originated in the Pacific.

NCEP commented that the latest GFS and GEFS are more progressive . This is why you don’t have the later fireworks because this effects where the PV goes .

The more progressive pattern pushes that further se , the ECM pulls the PV lobe further away .

 

Interesting and makes sense. Who’d of thought, a more progressive GFS resulting in a great run! Typical! ?

I think we need a Nick special! Time to get the paintbrush out! Help the learners ?

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9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Interesting and makes sense. Who’d of thought, a more progressive GFS resulting in a great run! Typical! ?

I think we need a Nick special! Time to get the paintbrush out! Help the learners ?

Yes please. I'm a beginner and love t learn. Has the ssw finished now. What was it's duration and what is the likely duration of cold for the UK from. Heronin

Edited by snowfish1
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3 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Yes please. I'm a beginner and love t learn. Has the ssw finished now. What was it's duration and what is the likely duration of cold for the UK from. Heronin

Head to the SSW thread for in-depth discussion surrounding that ?. But the strat has not recovered and is unlikely to fully recover now. But not out of the question.

Cold *chances* could well extend through February. So plenty of opportunities, however we are an impatient bunch & want it now! Nothing is guaranteed though, so try to not get to excited about any potential cold spell just yet or it could lead to massive disappointment. Enjoy the ride ??  

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Might be a daft question but why is there a lot of attention given to De Bilt when it’s in the Netherlands and we are in the UK?

I note sometimes it’s mentioned even when there is no easterly wind in the offing. 

Edited by Paul_1978
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Strange to see the para holding on with the trough not dropping through convincingly and the subsequent northern arm flat .... ICON also there ... the eps spreads wide days 9/10 so no assumptions on where this goes post the dropping trough ....

I expect to see Exeter’s wording a tad colder for later next week 

Gefs end week two look like a very split tpv

the eps AO not very keen on tanking 

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Good point Blue..best to keep the champagne on ice until GFS(p) and Icon are onboard. Remember if it wasn’t for Trumps wall the GFS would probably be toast by now and we would just be referring the GFSp as the GFS

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12 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Might be a daft question but why is there a lot of attention given to De Bilt when it’s in the Netherlands and we are in the UK?

I note sometimes it’s mentioned even when there is no easterly wind in the offing. 

Because they are one of the few location specific ensembles that are freely available (and it's close enough to the UK that it probably doesn't make much odds).

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The best thing about the output this morning....is that the perennial 'is it cold enough for snow? Have we got the right ingredients?' questions can be thrown in the bin. If these chars verify, it's snow all the way! Just have to sit back and keep everything cross that it verifies as modelled.

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12 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Because they are one of the few location specific ensembles that are freely available (and it's close enough to the UK that it probably doesn't make much odds).

DeBilt would generally be colder in an easterly, as there is nothing but continental landmass upwind. In a northerly or northwesterly it could be less cold than some inland UK locations, due to Holland coastal areas exposed to the North Sea track and the moderation the SSTs have on the northerly flow.

Edited by Nick F
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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

DeBilt would generally be colder in an easterly, as there is nothing but continental landmass upwind. In an northerly it could be less cold than some inland UK locations, due to Holland coastal areas exposed to the North Sea track and the moderation the SSTs have on the northerly flow.

Yes 

As a rule of thumb for the UK in a direct easterly is +1/+1.5c on Debilt

so the mean & operational being about -1c by day next week is a great sign for us!

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The GFS this morning is still doing it's best to provide some snow for many parts of the UK next week, especially Scotland, but has back-pedalled a bit overnight on the overall extent and amount.  These are the charts I was trying to animate yesterday but failed completely!....

Monday             image.thumb.gif.3e220255284e8bb6676868183afa4728.gif image.thumb.gif.e8a5a2bcb3b963388c53613ad3a4d59c.gif

Tuesday            image.thumb.gif.68a2fa6a20b468b17268ab568d09841e.gif image.thumb.gif.397ef1fe97564a1858128436b956513a.gif

Wednesday       image.thumb.gif.3367209b69addf12ae9a6e0cbc3b999e.gif image.thumb.gif.5c37af8d30fd35b2e02ba9ec195010b6.gif

Thursday           image.thumb.gif.06af8fb0fa3524fd6ae27c2e85bf6e66.gif image.thumb.gif.4b5f2b55d23beec2537d1ae2bbf319a0.gif

Friday                image.thumb.gif.f362c820edd4d5d3a48bf70e9b384f6b.gif image.thumb.gif.60f6ed445ac7d8633f90bd229cb9f50a.gif

The GFS(p) is similar but places the snow and sleet more in the west.  Its looking more likely now that we are in for five days of wintry conditions in a row and we can't grumble about that!

 

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12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

DeBilt would generally be colder in an easterly, as there is nothing but continental landmass upwind. In a northerly or northwesterly it could be less cold than some inland UK locations, due to Holland coastal areas exposed to the North Sea track and the moderation the SSTs have on the northerly flow.

Absolutely, Nick. It's not perfect, but I think my answer to his question is correct!

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8 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

 

The GFS(p) is similar but places the snow and sleet more in the west.  Its looking more likely now that we are in for five days of wintry conditions in a row and we can't grumble about that!

 

Hopefully some westward corrections over the next couple of days, but looking good for many to see snow

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I know we should all be cautious about taking the FI charts seriously, but you have to have a little hit of fun sometimes..... 

Just look at the end of the GFS run from last night - it's sheer model poetry:

image.thumb.gif.3a90135ae2ea181df9300f05639aff59.gif  image.thumb.gif.22cae1f244d7ff1ae8ffd73f49447401.gif

That would bring seriously cold conditions nationwide. 

 

Edited by Sky Full
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9 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

The GFS this morning is still doing it's best to provide some snow for many parts of the UK next week, especially Scotland, but has back-pedalled a bit overnight on the overall extent and amount.  These are the charts I was trying to animate yesterday but failed completely!....

Monday             image.thumb.gif.3e220255284e8bb6676868183afa4728.gif image.thumb.gif.e8a5a2bcb3b963388c53613ad3a4d59c.gif

Tuesday            image.thumb.gif.68a2fa6a20b468b17268ab568d09841e.gif image.thumb.gif.397ef1fe97564a1858128436b956513a.gif

Wednesday       image.thumb.gif.3367209b69addf12ae9a6e0cbc3b999e.gif image.thumb.gif.5c37af8d30fd35b2e02ba9ec195010b6.gif

Thursday           image.thumb.gif.06af8fb0fa3524fd6ae27c2e85bf6e66.gif image.thumb.gif.4b5f2b55d23beec2537d1ae2bbf319a0.gif

Friday                image.thumb.gif.f362c820edd4d5d3a48bf70e9b384f6b.gif image.thumb.gif.60f6ed445ac7d8633f90bd229cb9f50a.gif

The GFS(p) is similar but places the snow and sleet more in the west.  Its looking more likely now that we are in for five days of wintry conditions in a row and we can't grumble about that!

 

I wouldn't worry to much sky in these charts, they are wrong at T+6 hours most of the time it's nice viewing and certainly shows us some potential. 

Plus if the ECM was right, then there would be a lot more snow down Eastern half of country and western with any systems trying to push up against cold 

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