Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

Posted Images

Very happy with EC/GFS..

UKMO, not so sure, looks very very marginal for me , and not set up as nice as the other 2 at 144..

Don't want to spoil the mood which is lovely to see, Exeter have updated overnight and its a great read, just UKMO nagging in my mind.

When i say very happy with GFS/EC, i think i meant ecstatic!! ?

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Very happy with EC/GFS..

UKMO, not so sure, looks very very marginal for me , and not set up as nice as the other 2 at 144..

Don't want to spoil the mood which is lovely to see, Exeter have updated overnight and its a great read, just UKMO nagging in my mind.

Go back 24 hours mate, not sure your post will spoil the mood lol no comparison, fantastic output this morning. UKMO isn’t by any means a bad run either! It’s just not the best. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Great to see no downgrades - my reverse psychology worked!

Just be cautious everyone - we’ve seen cross model agreement with these setups only to see the wheels come off at T72. Granted though this time, we have a lot more in our favour.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very happy with EC/GFS..

UKMO, not so sure, looks very very marginal for me , and not set up as nice as the other 2 at 144..

Don't want to spoil the mood which is lovely to see, Exeter have updated overnight and its a great read, just UKMO nagging in my mind.

When i say very happy with GFS/EC, i think i meant ecstatic!! ?

Was about to say, why so downbeat ?

Screenshot_20190117-073952_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Go back 24 hours mate, not sure your post will spoil the mood lol no comparison, fantastic output this morning. UKMO isn’t by any means a bad run either! It’s just not the beAst. 

Corrected that typo for you...

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

In terms of the upstream pattern over the USA and Canada .

Still uncertainty there day 5 onwards in relation to the speed and amplitude of several shortwaves which have originated in the Pacific.

NCEP commented that the latest GFS and GEFS are more progressive . This is why you don’t have the later fireworks because this effects where the PV goes .

The more progressive pattern pushes that further se , the ECM pulls the PV lobe further away .

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Debilt 2m Ts - good I would say! Have to click!!

ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

 

Daytime temperatures cluster there maxing out at -4C. That's cold. :cold:

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

It's important what happens over the pond, I know their is a lot of uncertainty from the pros about the final outcome. Need to see these charts in the reliable at 96 hours ahead  before we open the champagne corks! 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In terms of the upstream pattern over the USA and Canada .

Still uncertainty there day 5 onwards in relation to the speed and amplitude of several shortwaves which have originated in the Pacific.

NCEP commented that the latest GFS and GEFS are more progressive . This is why you don’t have the later fireworks because this effects where the PV goes .

The more progressive pattern pushes that further se , the ECM pulls the PV lobe further away .

 

Spot on Nick , to many times eye candy charts have downgraded closer we get to T+0 as the energy over the pond gets modelled better

 

Im wondering also what impact snow cover in the Alps (if any ) may play in cooling temps at the surface should we draw a more continetal feed next week 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In terms of the upstream pattern over the USA and Canada .

Still uncertainty there day 5 onwards in relation to the speed and amplitude of several shortwaves which have originated in the Pacific.

NCEP commented that the latest GFS and GEFS are more progressive . This is why you don’t have the later fireworks because this effects where the PV goes .

The more progressive pattern pushes that further se , the ECM pulls the PV lobe further away .

 

Interesting and makes sense. Who’d of thought, a more progressive GFS resulting in a great run! Typical! ?

I think we need a Nick special! Time to get the paintbrush out! Help the learners ?

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Interesting and makes sense. Who’d of thought, a more progressive GFS resulting in a great run! Typical! ?

I think we need a Nick special! Time to get the paintbrush out! Help the learners ?

Yes please. I'm a beginner and love t learn. Has the ssw finished now. What was it's duration and what is the likely duration of cold for the UK from. Heronin

Edited by snowfish1
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Yes please. I'm a beginner and love t learn. Has the ssw finished now. What was it's duration and what is the likely duration of cold for the UK from. Heronin

Head to the SSW thread for in-depth discussion surrounding that ?. But the strat has not recovered and is unlikely to fully recover now. But not out of the question.

Cold *chances* could well extend through February. So plenty of opportunities, however we are an impatient bunch & want it now! Nothing is guaranteed though, so try to not get to excited about any potential cold spell just yet or it could lead to massive disappointment. Enjoy the ride ??  

 

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Might be a daft question but why is there a lot of attention given to De Bilt when it’s in the Netherlands and we are in the UK?

I note sometimes it’s mentioned even when there is no easterly wind in the offing. 

Edited by Paul_1978
Link to post
Share on other sites

Strange to see the para holding on with the trough not dropping through convincingly and the subsequent northern arm flat .... ICON also there ... the eps spreads wide days 9/10 so no assumptions on where this goes post the dropping trough ....

I expect to see Exeter’s wording a tad colder for later next week 

Gefs end week two look like a very split tpv

the eps AO not very keen on tanking 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good point Blue..best to keep the champagne on ice until GFS(p) and Icon are onboard. Remember if it wasn’t for Trumps wall the GFS would probably be toast by now and we would just be referring the GFSp as the GFS

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...