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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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1 minute ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

The BBC News Channel weather outlook is stating, a few weeks of normal British winter weather ahead, but with next week having below normal temperatures, yet what we can see, shows the greatest likelihood to be for very cold weather next week with an easterly and the promise of more cold or very cold weather after that. I know that they no longer have the Met Office data to view, but they can still see what we are seeing so why is their forecast at odds with the current model output?  

 

Simple - we don't know whats going to happen - something has to give tomorrow as the undercut is at too short a lead time then to collapse if the 0z and 12z repeat it, what is up for grabs though is how much snow or just very cold with not much snow

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21 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

The BBC News Channel weather outlook is stating, a few weeks of normal British winter weather ahead, but with next week having below normal temperatures, yet what we can see, shows the greatest likelihood to be for very cold weather next week with an easterly and the promise of more cold or very cold weather after that. I know that they no longer have the Met Office data to view, but they can still see what we are seeing so why is their forecast at odds with the current model output?  

 

An overnight thought if allowed by the mods seeing as it will be quieter in here ?. The BBC I feel are feeling the pinch of the UK economy. As a publicly funded organisation we deserve better. Imo they have decided to cut costs and took on a below par product. Meteogroup are part of mm International who own several products and are a profit based organisation. They have quite simply undercut the metoffice and sold the BBC a product that does not have the same experience and quality of the metoffice. Just a reminder of the metoffice closing statement on the closure deal with the BBC and the fact that we still have other TV chanels who still Do use metoffice products to conduct their forecasts ?Screenshot_20190117-004814.thumb.jpg.5e1f185a67ec851706d76f037fe89969.jpg

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18 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

The BBC News Channel weather outlook is stating, a few weeks of normal British winter weather ahead, but with next week having below normal temperatures, yet what we can see, shows the greatest likelihood to be for very cold weather next week with an easterly and the promise of more cold or very cold weather after that. I know that they no longer have the Met Office data to view, but they can still see what we are seeing so why is their forecast at odds with the current model output?  

 

The BBC forecasts for the longer range are based on this mornings 00z ECM run which did not show much blocking over Scandinavia and certainly was fairly underwhelming so no surprises that forecast sounded underwhelming. That said i do think forecasters should add a cavat and mention that some computor runs suggests a high developing over Scandinavia and instead of milder wetter westerly winds we could well see colder drier easterlies with a risk of snowfall. Some forecasters would do this as i have seen it before but some dont. 

As always with the output changes in the short term will alter the longer term so if the attempted Atlantic ridging is poor then things could turn rather flat even if there is evidence of blocking over Scandi. I think the risk of colder easterlies is certainly there but its by no means a certainty and its too far out worrying about the details in terms of how cold the uppers are for example. 

Probably the first time this winter a stronger signal for potentially much colder weather is on the cards are appearing on the models but as the mornings 00Z runs show it can be quite fickle so more consistency is needed. 

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27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Simple - we don't know whats going to happen - something has to give tomorrow as the undercut is at too short a lead time then to collapse if the 0z and 12z repeat it, what is up for grabs though is how much snow or just very cold with not much snow

Thank you for the response which I totally agree with, but my point is that they are giving a forecast supposedly based on the current best information, and in it they are not stating that they don't know what is going to happen, or that the most current information favours a very cold outlook, they are boldly stating that it will only be below normal next week. Hopefully the 0z will be a step forward tomorrow. Fingers crossed.    

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1 minute ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Thank you for the response which I totally agree with, but my point is that they are giving a forecast supposedly based on the current best information, and in it they are not stating that they don't know what is going to happen, or that the most current information favours a very cold outlook, they are boldly stating that it will only be below normal next week. Hopefully the 0z will be a step forward tomorrow. Fingers crossed.    

TBF though they could still be right after next week and it could be a short lived cold spell - so only time will tell, nothing nailed down even post 120 yet but should be after tomorrow, but even then - if this Easterly is nailed, there will still remain doubt beyond 240.

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12 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Thank you for the response which I totally agree with, but my point is that they are giving a forecast supposedly based on the current best information, and in it they are not stating that they don't know what is going to happen, or that the most current information favours a very cold outlook, they are boldly stating that it will only be below normal next week. Hopefully the 0z will be a step forward tomorrow. Fingers crossed.    

But he did say uncertainty regarding next week, next updated forecast should be a belter if the midnight runs do not downgrade for a change! 

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5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Easterly on Ukmo in six days with frigid uppers over the continent ??

No beast post day 6 JMA style on the UKMO, but as you say nice very cold Easterly with -8s heading back into the UK with some form of snow event Tues-

GFS has better heights to the NNE & rain > Snow in the SE at 144 with winds heading Easterly as well-

Again not spectacular but both models pointing to long term cold, GFS looks a bit more realistic V UKMO looks a bit odd height wise to the North-

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

&168 GFS brings in deep cold from the East- Great for the NE

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Not as good as last nite but it's the 00Z so it will get better as the day goes on just seen my 1st snow of the Winter here. Hope we all get some snow as so far it's been a miserable Winter for Snow lovers. How's the Snow potential looking for Tuesday Steve my 1st glance says marginal but I bow down to your superior knowledge.

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3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Not as good as last nite but it's the 00Z so it will get better as the day goes on just seen my 1st snow of the Winter here. Hope we all get some snow as so far it's been a miserable Winter for Snow lovers. How's the Snow potential looking for Tuesday Steve my 1st glance says marginal but I bow down to your superior knowledge.

Marginal is a fair word to use - UKMO lower heights 120-144 indicates to me a higher chance of snow... just difficult to offer a 168 solution ( apart from cold from the continent settling into the UK )

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GFS not a bad run, easterly middle of next week looks marginal for all snow, may be mixed wintry showers at those thicknesses, snow on hills for certain -- then a bitter cold high modifying slightly before a strong northerly in FI. No idea if it's right, of course. Perhaps we should just start forecasting what is on no guidance, expecting it all to be wrong? 

Sunny and hot with intense thunderstorms. ?

 

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morning  all the over  night  gfs  is outstanding    even into   deep    fantasy  world, if you like  snow their looks  like their  plenty  coming our way  it going to get very cold  it looks  like 

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Much better start to the day than the last few. Looking below average from here on out. Hopefully we can get those 850s a tad lower so we can lose the marginal rain/snow, and have all snow. 

 

 

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