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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Not as good as last nite but it's the 00Z so it will get better as the day goes on just seen my 1st snow of the Winter here. Hope we all get some snow as so far it's been a miserable Winter for Snow lovers. How's the Snow potential looking for Tuesday Steve my 1st glance says marginal but I bow down to your superior knowledge.

Marginal is a fair word to use - UKMO lower heights 120-144 indicates to me a higher chance of snow... just difficult to offer a 168 solution ( apart from cold from the continent settling into the UK )

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

GFS not a bad run, easterly middle of next week looks marginal for all snow, may be mixed wintry showers at those thicknesses, snow on hills for certain -- then a bitter cold high modifying slightly before a strong northerly in FI. No idea if it's right, of course. Perhaps we should just start forecasting what is on no guidance, expecting it all to be wrong? 

Sunny and hot with intense thunderstorms.

 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

What a start! Corker of an easterly on the 0z. Then into FI, a full reversal of zonality!! 

A bit better than yesterday! Snow for many as it stands. 

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

morning  all the over  night  gfs  is outstanding    even into   deep    fantasy  world, if you like  snow their looks  like their  plenty  coming our way  it going to get very cold  it looks  like 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Much better start to the day than the last few. Looking below average from here on out. Hopefully we can get those 850s a tad lower so we can lose the marginal rain/snow, and have all snow. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&amp;ech=192&amp;carte=&amp;mode=0

i know  its  a long way off   but with that low sliding  down into deep poll of cold air over  the uk   could make things very interesting  soon

gens-16-1-336.png

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

00z has an E drag in from the continent next week.

8759A26E-02EA-476E-8BCC-6BBF69D139BF.thumb.png.0c56f20909ac12cafb8f48df5e4b0635.png

 

And FI is looking like Narnia on this run. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

The main thing longer term on the GF,S this morning is the retrogression  to the Greenland high as per the long term ens guidance.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Big 3 at day 6, slight nuances between them but overall good agreement generally, liking the vortex lobe dropping into Eastern Europe

F057896A-28DF-4FB2-B523-DE7AD3A5586A.gif

53FAB5AB-2BB3-4406-B301-C82485A66AFC.png

A5123213-6188-4FE6-A0B1-7DD7F9E230DA.png

 

 

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Fantastic ECM up to 192 this morning!

Such a pleasure to see the sight of low pressure in southern Europe.....fuelling our easterly.

The Alps will continued to be buried looking at this run (as we will hopefully).

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

The ecm looks better than the beast from the east with a longer looking easterly. Hopefully many places that missed the snow in March will get more this time assuming the charts verify!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Just had a dusting of snow tonight!!more forecast for tomorrow night maybe and then more till the end of april!!what a set of runs this morning!!ecm is a huge upgrade!!anyway time for a run!!

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