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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
15 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hehe - there is a first time for everything. Little story - if the mods will allow - I took a class of historians to the local Taunton archive a few years ago, and during the visit found an entry in a local church marriage register that was very odd. A very excited vicar (presumably) in the late 16th century (don't remember the exact year) had suddenly taken time to write a brief weather report in the middle of the marriage list. I can still see it now - "so much snow fell on this day that men fell and drowned in it." Have wondered ever since just how much snow must have fallen to have created an entry like this in a completely inappropriate place - and for the verb "drowned" to be used....but perhaps tells us that even the most outrageous scenario does occur from time to time!

If any model was going to be right I would favour the japenese over most, on the merit of being a leader in electrical/electronic engineering.

But I am new to model watching. Most people seem to concentrate on the big four but jma and wmc look logically more intelligent regarding an easterly lol.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yep. Horrible run. Should be a warning to people to retain some caution.

Good advice .

We need one more day of solid runs .  There’s no such thing as a certainty and we need to see the day 6 hurdle come within day 5 .

The trough disruption over the UK is likely but the build of high pressure over the top towards Scandi isn’t yet .

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
28 minutes ago, Philbill said:

I have always assumed the professionals have access to much better models than we do on this forum no matter who they work for

Unfortunately the BBC decided to take its business elsewhere last year just as the met office were driving a new 4WD vehicle. The BBC forecasts have to be seen to be laughed at nowadays. 

The Metoffice, Icon and Ecm look to be showing the way, as Ive said before, the ICON led the way last year with the Beast output.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
38 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Well, if the 12z NCEP / GFS blue line hugs the EPS average, then I say good chance of a cold easterly flow next week and beyond, the GFS has been at the mild end of the spread for a while until now

 

D7BE2AE2-62EA-4043-8293-E8AEE55E8A81.png

The contrast between the 18z and this mornings 00z is quite a turnaround

graphe3_1000_283_103___.gifgraphe3_1000_283_103___.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
8 minutes ago, icykev said:

If any model was going to be right I would favour the japenese over most, on the merit of being a leader in electrical/electronic engineering.

But I am new to model watching. Most people seem to concentrate on the big four but jma and wmc look logically more intelligent regarding an easterly lol.

 

The CMA China model seems to be one thats up and coming, like JMA it has been pretty consistent with some great looking runs for next week.

cmaeu-0-144.png

cmaeu-0-168.png

cmaeu-0-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
3 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

I always used to say that following an SSW that if downwelling occurred then it is a bit like a wheel of fortune spinning around the arctic where any block will set up. Never has that felt more right than following this SSW.

With weeks of downwelling still likely to occur, don’t let any run entice you in either way - always look at the bigger picture. Quite often you will see an output react to some new data and the pendulum swings far too much in the opposite direction, then when the renewed data is inputted for the next run the pendulum swings back again. Especially after an SSW.

I always think it's like a break in snooker.  You know where the balls should roll but in essence, every break is different.  The physics look simple but the outcome is surprisingly variable in snooker.

The split SSW is like the white ball and the voretex the reds.  You know the vortex will dissipate but exactly where and how remains an enigma. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
6 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Unfortunately the BBC decided to take its business elsewhere last year just as the met office were driving a new 4WD vehicle. The BBC forecasts have to be seen to be laughed at nowadays. 

The Metoffice, Icon and Ecm look to be showing the way, as Ive said before, the ICON led the way last year with the Beast output.

The icon has been up and down lately too . The 12z run was a shocker . But luckily it’s better on the 18z run . See the 12z below . 

EB5024EA-86FA-427E-BF0D-1A0599D63B6F.png

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The icon has been up and down lately too . The 12z run was a shocker . But luckily it’s better on the 18z run . See the 12z below . 

EB5024EA-86FA-427E-BF0D-1A0599D63B6F.png

Doesn't look likely now to say the least lol

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
54 minutes ago, snowray said:

The CMA China model seems to be one thats up and coming, like JMA it has been pretty consistent with some great looking runs for next week.

cmaeu-0-144.png

cmaeu-0-168.png

cmaeu-0-240.png

I always thought the  Asians had the best models. They have been the most consistent in showing the easterly, let's hope the morning runs don't downgrade again. I'M not the only one dreading them I would assume

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

To end the day things haven't really changed much for the 18z swingometers

For the 25th of January there are less anticyclonic members and more cold zonal but there are still some easterlies in the mix to keep things interesting. Still a really uncertain picture.

image.thumb.png.fa43160b76edb3b576ee502af8183db7.png

For the 31st of January things are perhaps even a bit of an upgrade, quite a lot of northern blocking towards the end of the month. Lets hope the 00z's aren't in a grumpy mood tomorrow morning....

image.thumb.png.fd8358d237e0b0a086cfe1600fe2d8b7.png

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

The BBC News Channel weather outlook is stating, a few weeks of normal British winter weather ahead, but with next week having below normal temperatures, yet what we can see, shows the greatest likelihood to be for very cold weather next week with an easterly and the promise of more cold or very cold weather after that. I know that they no longer have the Met Office data to view, but they can still see what we are seeing so why is their forecast at odds with the current model output?  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Not often that you see so many snow symbols on the GFS London ensembles.

graphe_ens3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

The BBC News Channel weather outlook is stating, a few weeks of normal British winter weather ahead, but with next week having below normal temperatures, yet what we can see, shows the greatest likelihood to be for very cold weather next week with an easterly and the promise of more cold or very cold weather after that. I know that they no longer have the Met Office data to view, but they can still see what we are seeing so why is their forecast at odds with the current model output?  

 

Simple - we don't know whats going to happen - something has to give tomorrow as the undercut is at too short a lead time then to collapse if the 0z and 12z repeat it, what is up for grabs though is how much snow or just very cold with not much snow

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
21 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

The BBC News Channel weather outlook is stating, a few weeks of normal British winter weather ahead, but with next week having below normal temperatures, yet what we can see, shows the greatest likelihood to be for very cold weather next week with an easterly and the promise of more cold or very cold weather after that. I know that they no longer have the Met Office data to view, but they can still see what we are seeing so why is their forecast at odds with the current model output?  

 

An overnight thought if allowed by the mods seeing as it will be quieter in here . The BBC I feel are feeling the pinch of the UK economy. As a publicly funded organisation we deserve better. Imo they have decided to cut costs and took on a below par product. Meteogroup are part of mm International who own several products and are a profit based organisation. They have quite simply undercut the metoffice and sold the BBC a product that does not have the same experience and quality of the metoffice. Just a reminder of the metoffice closing statement on the closure deal with the BBC and the fact that we still have other TV chanels who still Do use metoffice products to conduct their forecasts Screenshot_20190117-004814.thumb.jpg.5e1f185a67ec851706d76f037fe89969.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
18 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

The BBC News Channel weather outlook is stating, a few weeks of normal British winter weather ahead, but with next week having below normal temperatures, yet what we can see, shows the greatest likelihood to be for very cold weather next week with an easterly and the promise of more cold or very cold weather after that. I know that they no longer have the Met Office data to view, but they can still see what we are seeing so why is their forecast at odds with the current model output?  

 

The BBC forecasts for the longer range are based on this mornings 00z ECM run which did not show much blocking over Scandinavia and certainly was fairly underwhelming so no surprises that forecast sounded underwhelming. That said i do think forecasters should add a cavat and mention that some computor runs suggests a high developing over Scandinavia and instead of milder wetter westerly winds we could well see colder drier easterlies with a risk of snowfall. Some forecasters would do this as i have seen it before but some dont. 

As always with the output changes in the short term will alter the longer term so if the attempted Atlantic ridging is poor then things could turn rather flat even if there is evidence of blocking over Scandi. I think the risk of colder easterlies is certainly there but its by no means a certainty and its too far out worrying about the details in terms of how cold the uppers are for example. 

Probably the first time this winter a stronger signal for potentially much colder weather is on the cards are appearing on the models but as the mornings 00Z runs show it can be quite fickle so more consistency is needed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man
27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Simple - we don't know whats going to happen - something has to give tomorrow as the undercut is at too short a lead time then to collapse if the 0z and 12z repeat it, what is up for grabs though is how much snow or just very cold with not much snow

Thank you for the response which I totally agree with, but my point is that they are giving a forecast supposedly based on the current best information, and in it they are not stating that they don't know what is going to happen, or that the most current information favours a very cold outlook, they are boldly stating that it will only be below normal next week. Hopefully the 0z will be a step forward tomorrow. Fingers crossed.    

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Thank you for the response which I totally agree with, but my point is that they are giving a forecast supposedly based on the current best information, and in it they are not stating that they don't know what is going to happen, or that the most current information favours a very cold outlook, they are boldly stating that it will only be below normal next week. Hopefully the 0z will be a step forward tomorrow. Fingers crossed.    

TBF though they could still be right after next week and it could be a short lived cold spell - so only time will tell, nothing nailed down even post 120 yet but should be after tomorrow, but even then - if this Easterly is nailed, there will still remain doubt beyond 240.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
12 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Thank you for the response which I totally agree with, but my point is that they are giving a forecast supposedly based on the current best information, and in it they are not stating that they don't know what is going to happen, or that the most current information favours a very cold outlook, they are boldly stating that it will only be below normal next week. Hopefully the 0z will be a step forward tomorrow. Fingers crossed.    

But he did say uncertainty regarding next week, next updated forecast should be a belter if the midnight runs do not downgrade for a change! 

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

Looks like ridge heights already building on updateh500slp-1.thumb.png.2e7544da2a8a8f04704cbfeb174024be.png

 

h500slp.thumb.png.a8800fd6e2a9ae36ca5d0391cb8afafd.png

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Easterly on Ukmo in six days with frigid uppers over the continent

No beast post day 6 JMA style on the UKMO, but as you say nice very cold Easterly with -8s heading back into the UK with some form of snow event Tues-

GFS has better heights to the NNE & rain > Snow in the SE at 144 with winds heading Easterly as well-

Again not spectacular but both models pointing to long term cold, GFS looks a bit more realistic V UKMO looks a bit odd height wise to the North-

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

&168 GFS brings in deep cold from the East- Great for the NE

B272FA54-1831-4BFF-BDB5-3DFFEE206C0C.thumb.png.575da55f25c889c29bdbe44e764c3e19.png780ED0AB-B06D-4A0E-9C07-268A969D5FBC.thumb.png.254a4d8653c4d2a7f73d75fbae770fae.png72230785-D867-4CFF-9B51-860464C9C05B.thumb.png.3e68f5fc3ce118d1e785a671da539a9d.png

 

Not as good as last nite but it's the 00Z so it will get better as the day goes on just seen my 1st snow of the Winter here. Hope we all get some snow as so far it's been a miserable Winter for Snow lovers. How's the Snow potential looking for Tuesday Steve my 1st glance says marginal but I bow down to your superior knowledge.

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