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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

I suspect reloads from the north as the high migrates west.

Looks like from the NW in a minute again, now that would be interesting if we had a really cold surface already.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just wished it would be better uppers and hold its position and not sink.

That's not the point in my view, that's all in FI and probably won't happen, the earlier signal for an easterly at T144 is the main positive from this run, I think.  Later output as up in the air as ever, need to get the start of high lat blocking established before worrying about model output post day 6, I think.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No you need steep lapse rates not just from surface to 850 but further up than that as well in order to create convection - you don't need  -15c like march but -10 would be needed together with 520-530 (ish 500mb heights, preferably -12c

I was thinking more in terms of being cold enough for snow rather than convection.

All academic anyway at this range, and some model runs show it’s entirely possible that we may tap into much colder uppers should this easterly happen. Not worth worrying about at this stage.

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That's not the point in my view, that's all in FI and probably won't happen, the earlier signal for an easterly at T144 is the main positive from this run, I think.  Later output as up in the air as ever, need to get the start of high lat blocking established before worrying about model output post day 6, I think.

I like to temper expectations, though, that a surface flow from the East (no matter how long a fetch) can still be very dry, it will never be warm from that direction at this time of year but it doesn't automatically mean a tonking.

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so the pub run gives us stonking charts to back up the upgrades from earlier and the first thing some latch onto is the uppers? dear god if i had a quid for every time this happens i would be rich, every time we get a cold spell in the output folk go on about uppers and marginal etc. for the love of god lets at the very least get to the point when the cold or very cold is meant to come before stressing about the uppers..

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just wished it would be better uppers and hold its position and not sink.

Really?! I'd give my last rolo for this chart at the start of the winter. Great winter chart if cold is your thing

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2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Goodnight chaps see you in the morning 

18z fantastico

hope I see post when I wake up

 

flat as a pancake

alantic driven 

never look at charts past t96

Big downgrade

happens every year

whys steve muir not posting

We got 5 weeks left of winter

one for the bin

missing data

 

Don’t forget breast feeder 

seriously though there’s bound to be some doom and gloom in the morning otherwise it would be a pretty tame rollercoaster 

but then the upgrades will start all over again

5C354B7E-2D16-457E-B640-13B1B808442B.png

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21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

In terms of confidence we should be at the 75% mark for snow in the UK late Tues ( locale to be pinned )

& around 50-60% on the subsequent Easterly...

Any more westwards correction prediction Steve with regard to the cold air?

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Anyway 18z GFS gets the basics right before flinging PV lobes all over the show (something like 4 fragments at one point) which flattens everything out temporarily.

Also I do not the GFS has finally given up on a stronger low for Saturday and looks like the ECM did a few days ago ..

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Clusters are good for a few reasons

1) the op is too Far East with the trough and smallest cluster at 8%.  Other 5 clusters are further west 

2)by day 8, the op cluster is the largest of three 

3) in the extended period, the control cluster (griceland ridge scenario) remains the largest of three options 

That is very good news all round - fits the desired mould exactly. 

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Hope it is OK to ask this - what is now the informed opinion about how well GFS is doing, what with the government shutdown?

Maybe it's performing perfectly alright I don't know.

Edited by Bruegelian
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20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I would take a stab that the JMA daytime maxes at days 9/10 would be around -3/-4c for England...

If the JMA ever picked a time to verify it needs to be now!

I've been keeping a keen eye on the JMA too Steve, seems to me to have been the most consistent with the easterly theme, a bit extreme tonight but who knows, could be on the money?!?

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