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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    Just now, ICE COLD said:

    When is the JMA extended out can’t wait to see the next frame ?? 

    10:30 ish.

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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    7 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

    A similar situation occurred in Jan 2013 (just before the SSW?)

    image.thumb.png.d6b48fb9f527d1698cea4df83cb68585.png

    2013 SSW was Jan 6th.

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  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    ECM ensembles watch : I thought I'd pick D10 (26th January), as it looks unclear from the mean chart. Indeed, studying the individual members, it is very unclear, and the mean doesn't really represent as there's such a big split between a. runs that do not let the Atlantic in (generally easterly or northerly), b. runs where the Atlantic has got through (westerly / south westerly), and c. runs where the Atlantic is disrupting as it reaches the UK, generally maintaining cold but not exclusively. The cold options just about have the lead but enough milder runs for there to be good doubt. I counted as follows for D10 (totally imo)

    Runs probably cold enough for snow: 28

    Runs probably not cold enough : 17

    Borderline : 6

    What with the general ups and downs of the past few ensemble sets, I think it's too hard to call extended period at the moment, except that the colder synoptics maintain the "lead" ?

    A sobering post and perhaps a good time to see it after what the 12z ops and gefs 

    the ec op could easily jump back to the a mobile group in the morning 

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  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
    1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

    2013 SSW was Jan 6th.

    Thanks. This has been a real slug in downwelling to the tropos! That particular example is likely, at least in part as a result of the SSW. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    A sobering post and perhaps a good time to see it after what the 12z ops and gefs 

    the ec op could easily jump back to the a mobile group in the morning 

    What’s surprising is all the ops are going for the scandi region now and not Greenland heights . So would that not go against the EC46 ?? 

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  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    What’s surprising is all the ops are going for the scandi region now and not Greenland heights . So would that not go against the EC46 ?? 

    Scandi to Greenland?

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  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    What’s surprising is all the ops are going for the scandi region now and not Greenland heights . So would that not go against the EC46 ?? 

    Yes. Scandy may well end up the direction of travel come February - but it feels a bit quick in evolution on op runs at the moment. 

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  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    More improvements at just 108

    7A96FA1B-AA9B-4353-82F4-025E63A42DB6.png

    306BE1F4-9549-4EBC-9C03-BFBC0D6F5C62.png

    Yep. More amplified and that low diving more nicely.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Aaaaah drop trough!!drop!!what a beauty at 126 hours!!better than ecm!!

    This is better than 12z gfs and all the fun and games start from this friday!madness!!

    Edited by shaky
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  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    So given the decent nature of the 12z GFS we need to see that replicated or even improved on the pub run, key time T120ish, the amplification there to build the ridge? 

    Sound at T126:

    image.thumb.jpg.3794cc2050c17127bdfa530e7ce03a60.jpg

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  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Another stonker coming up, very slight improvement on 12z with slightly sharper trough, Oh dear Stav Danaos - you've just had your Guy's brother moment.

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  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Def more of a trough disruption on the 18z at 126 v 12z 132

    gfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.edc4deb3c408c483599893a13225bdf0.pnggfsnh-0-132.thumb.png.25238cc4873088fb5af771c182deb9ce.png

     

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  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    GFS / UKMO / ECM at 144 (GFS 138)... All good but pub run is looking really positive at this point..... plenty of time for it to go 'titticus verticus' though!

    GFS image.thumb.png.69d36b800ff8d7abd4461333741f7619.png UK image.thumb.png.46e9c8fc5ebdbad005a36185cd089b07.png ECM image.thumb.png.61be1c805366a475f2b24a60daa973d9.png

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  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL

    GFS 18z could well and truly lead on to a long lasting easterly for sure. The snow event at +132 for comparison, the uppers are slightly more marginal, M4 northwards most favourable.

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  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    It’s soooo hard not to get excited when we see charts like this and not like 10 days away but it’s all so up and down at the mo we really need to keep calm

    AB501DB3-A4C7-4D17-B13E-10BB92B8AA5F.png

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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