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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted (edited)

Gfs looking good at day 10!!

Cant post image on fone at work..

Azores high bit of a pain on this run however..

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs looking good at day 10!!

Cant post image on fone at work..

 

Not a great run though, hopefully off the mark and the rest are better this morning!! 

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Getting there at the end though its a slow process..

🙂

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17 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Not a great gfs op fi this morning, oh well, ens should show a better picture. Great from the UKMO and GEM and icon. Now onto the ec.

GEM is indeed a nice run.. much better than GFS.. 🙂

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Getting there at the end though its a slow process..

🙂

Not a bad set of GEFS to day 10 but definitely not as many cold options as the last few runs, plenty of support for the Op type scenario. Over to the ECM!! GEM and UKMO Much better as mentioned, and the ICON, and of course the GEFS may be better later on, infact by day 12 they are looking much better!! 👌

Edited by Ali1977

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GEFS trickling out, at T240, P3 at the extreme end of what we can maybe expect!

image.thumb.jpg.50aa7a3055663f784aed988bc94e62e4.jpg

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GFS 144

image.thumb.png.0ba2e68db9303b74b7af3c6a3aa6d1d6.png

UKMO 144

image.thumb.png.2242a0a4fad5b418a2c280add2279f3b.png

Blocking high over the Pole more evident on UKMO, perhaps that will make a difference moving forward?

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Posted (edited)

GEM goes off early, referee still marking the line and the ball in the net. 

It could become the rarely seen GEM-ECM vs GFS alignment, any time that happens, bet on the GEM-ECM because they tend to have opposite biases. 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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If you don't normally go over to banter, I posted something fairly serious in there earlier (Tuesday) about length and timing of UK cold spells. Seems that there's a bimodal distribution of onset dates, one cluster before 10th of January and another in early February. But the early February cluster often have quite cold lead-up intervals before the main sustained cold arrives. Not sure why but about 18 to 25 January less likely to initiate a sustained cold spell. Might just be law of averages waiting for a balancing. 

The jet seems to be dropping south over eastern North America this week, hopefully it does not then direct its energy towards central Atlantic, a better outcome would be return flow to west Greenland. The jet keeps on scouring across Greenland this winter, PV slightly displaced by this but no real northern blocking, just a long way around and central Europe reaping the benefits. From Pole to Poland you could say (but it Bavaries). 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Awmsome UKMO this morning

95827140-7DAB-410B-B234-943F4DB89980.thumb.jpeg.e7a47dc638a85668a35abd459bbf1bdb.jpeg

Poised for atlantic blocking like the ECM

Yes i think i agree with you Steve..

Big EC coming up !!

🙂

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Posted (edited)

Even at T96 you can see the ECM looks slightly better with the jet stream more NW/SE and heights slightly better around S Greenland 

F4CAAE23-62A4-4C21-BE50-A3707E7F6456.png

27E6B023-B93E-4810-83B1-BE9F450A1FFB.png

By 120 ECM  has better ridging, stronger Arctic, and makes less of the LP around Newfoundland - should be a good run.

BDB8C20A-AADD-480E-952D-C8B04178B632.png

33106253-EDD5-4356-9FF3-F3DD1411CA9B.png

Edited by Ali1977

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Posted (edited)

They look very similar to me Ali..

Dont want EC looking like GFS 00Z thats for sure..

Hope this azores high isnt going to be the spoiler.

Edited by northwestsnow

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Strange, but all I see from the ukmo day 6 is a strong vortex posting a westerly through the UK...ecm has a southwesterly at day 6 and gfs has a monster vortex throughout...Perhaps I'm being negative by only looking at the UK weather.

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

They look very similar to me Ali..

Dont want EC looking like GFS 00Z thats for sure..

Hope this azores high isnt going to be the spoiler.

This ec should be different to last as system off Newfoundland is developed rather than a stretched non event by day 6 ..... wouldn’t expect that meandering non descript cold fi we saw yesterday  

the gefs have lost that stable Atlantic ridge signal we saw previous two runs 

the geps seem to be still with that but looks to be a renewing feature rather than a single solid ridge .......let’s talk about the risks as I mused yesterday ..... I can see a larger possibility that the whole pattern edges a bit too fat to the east with the Atlantic ridging a bit close to the uk ..... 

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5 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Strange, but all I see from the ukmo day 6 is a strong vortex posting a westerly through the UK...ecm has a southwesterly at day 6 and gfs has a monster vortex throughout...Perhaps I'm being negative by only looking at the UK weather.

Correct .. you need to look hemispherically at what is going on 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This ec should be different to last as system off Newfoundland is developed rather than a stretched non event by day 6 ..... wouldn’t expect that meandering non descript cold fi we saw yesterday  

the gefs have lost that stable Atlantic ridge signal we saw previous two runs 

the geps seem to be still with that but looks to be a renewing feature rather than a single solid ridge .......let’s talk about the risks as I mused yesterday ..... I can see a larger possibility that the whole pattern edges a bit too fat to the east with the Atlantic ridging a bit close to the uk ..... 

Dear me...

Not liking the sound of that Blue..

192 looks ok though..

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

They look very similar to me Ali..

Dont want EC looking like GFS 00Z thats for sure..

Hope this azores high isnt going to be the spoiler.

Yup was gona say ali.looking to much into it!!infact if i was to say ukmo looks better and colder for the uk at 120 hours compared to the other 2!!but yeh gota be carefull cos the pattern could still easily flatten out and  delay any onset on cold thats if we get it at all!!remember operations rule the ensembles and will pick out nuisance shortwaves!!seen it happen before and it made me sick😫

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Correct .. you need to look hemispherically at what is going on 

I understand what you are saying, but living in the UK, and with my experience in model watching, and I do have a few years under my belt, yes the chart below has the vortex in tatters, however a constant seems to be the purples over Greenland,  which to me equals wet and windy for the UK no matter what is happening elsewhere.

ECMOPNH00_168_1.png

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Posted (edited)

Much happier with this than the GFS , cold air flooding south and again it could be as early as next Fri we are in the “snow zone”

FA41552C-F263-4BC0-82F6-22445E073979.png

Edited by Ali1977

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Much happier with this than the GFS , cold air flooding south and again it could be as early as next Fri we are in the “snow zone”

FA41552C-F263-4BC0-82F6-22445E073979.png

Need the LP to dive into Europe at 216..

 

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2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I understand what you are saying, but living in the UK, and with my experience in model watching, and I do have a few years under my belt, yes the chart below has the vortex in tatters, however a constant seems to be the purples over Greenland,  which to me equals wet and windy for the UK no matter what is happening elsewhere.

ECMOPNH00_168_1.png

I don’t believe anyone is saying that things will suddenly flip ... it’s a transition of around ten days from now and during that period, we could see sliders but we should see a more mobile period courtesy of the purples you refer to! 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Need the LP to dive into Europe at 216..

 

It didn’t really go how I thought it might, real cold air only up North!!

024572EB-9B7B-4FA3-9101-66BF6620AA8B.png

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