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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Not sure what to make of that upstream after 240 - a bit flat

    Classic battleground situation. The alignment of the low to the west suggests pushback to me.

    Far too distant to look at in detail of course, but good signs 

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    So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

    I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

    It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Not sure what to make of that upstream after 240 - a bit flat

    After today's events, are you really worrying about upstream after day 10??

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Slightly bemused at the posts saying the T168 chart was a downgrade.  But moving on, the ECM T240 looks mega

    image.thumb.jpg.0a576a45f837ce3625b3c3227a748dd6.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e7957e4b29ce0c3b382baa8a73042b20.jpg

     

    It shows the UK in Atlantic winds with the Scandinavian ridge too far east?

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    1 minute ago, AWD said:

    It shows the UK in Atlantic winds with the Scandinavian ridge too far east?

    Wow, that's quite some take.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    After today's events, are you really worrying about upstream after day 10??

    IN any case im not sure it is flat, there is cold practically touching the deep South.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Just now, Vikos said:

    And tomorrow morning big hangover again....

    Yes, the 00z runs are a consistent downgrade and I fully expect it to be the same in the morning. Hope I’m wrong though!

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    2 minutes ago, AWD said:

    It shows the UK in Atlantic winds with the Scandinavian ridge too far east?

    It shows a building Scandinavian high with a negatively tilted trough approaching. That low to the West would slide SSE and the Scandinavian high ridge west. 

    Would the high sink? Don't think so looking at the shape of the pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Good to see that winter is back on after being over just 12 hours ago. You’d think people would learn not to post knee jerk reactions, but hey ho.

    Clearly much to be resolved later next week but it’s also clear that an easterly of some sort is on the table. The seasonal models and various signals are all promising for a quite prolonged period of generally below average temperatures, meaning the risk of some snow at times, and the possibility of more significant cold late Jan/early Feb. The daily models will just take time to resolve things and one op run will not make or break winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    A couple of posts have been hidden as off topic.

    Please keep to model discussions please all.Emotional one liners and general chat are for the other threads and will likely disappear.

    Everyone's help keeping the thread on track in this busy and interesting time would be much appreciated.

    Thanks all. 

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Yeah, what's wrong saying that tomorrow morning could bring a big catarsis AGAIN like today?

    Iceland 500mb ENS don't show much constistensy in my opinion....

    graphe_ens4.php?temp=2&x=&y=&ext=1&run=1

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    Just as the models were becoming more consistent in a more zonal picture developing, the brakes have been pulled on the North Atlantic somewhat. For the 25th of January there is a big shift to cold anticyclonic. Some following a cold easterly...

    image.thumb.png.be388e2441c3d11d4839da65a2b54a32.png

    This seems to have a butterfly effect on later output with more cold runs appearing later on 

    image.thumb.png.fdc25cfd9af61cdf22c69fee0a7ee6e4.png

    Amazing after all this time we don't have any sort of picture for January 25th yet. Perhaps the GFS was hungover this morning. ECM also a substantial improvement.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Just took a look at the ensembles for leicester!!temps dont get any higher than 2 or 3 degrees and stay below 0 every night till the end of the run!!what a set of runs!!i can only imagine had that ecm been 200 miles further this place would av exploded!!and to top it off there is now a chance of snow this friday for parts of England thanks to a colder undercut from the east!

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    EPS out to 126 seems to support the op in terms of the trough disruption at least.. lets hope it supports the height rises beyond that, too!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Looks like the emotional rollercoaster is in full swing for coldies !

    After the helpline being over run in the morning I’ve laid off the staff at least until tomorrow !

    Some nice nice upgrades this evening . The ECM though takes a little longer to get there with less trough disruption at day 6 .

    This is the part for coldies that is most nerve wracking . The tasty set ups aren’t stuck at day ten , you can almost smell the snow !

    If we can just get over that 6 day hurdle intact then even I might have a mini ramp !

    What do we ideally need to happen regarding developments over USA Nick?

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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