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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Just now, booferking said:

FV3-GFS not available for the rest of the night hopefully back online tomorrow already it looks much better than it's older brother in the way of wild swings and better verification stats as for last GFS pub run straight for the bin night all things looking up again🤙

I'd have thought the reliability of GFS availability may become more problematic the longer the Trump shutdown goes on...

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18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I don’t want to pour cold water on the seemingly festive mood in here but until we see concrete changes count down then we need to be cautious .

The rampant PV lobe over ne Canada needs to weaken and displace further to the nw .

The ECM somehow manages to get the cold quite far south but I’m not impressed with how it does that and the Arctic high has weakened .

Theres a danger the EC longer range is being seen as a done deal . 

I should add shortwaves that form near Iceland won’t be picked up at this stage . That’s why when medium term outputs show the cold getting far south with a strong PV they overdo this and will correct further north .

Cold advection south can only be trusted when you have a strong block to deliver that.

Completely agree with this point. The Greenland High in particularly unpredictable, and we need to see very high anomalies before considering this as a forecast 

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I’m not convinced we will see a greeny block  ...... as long as we get the sceuro trough then I expect even a dumbelling mid Atlantic ridge to suffice ... I actually think we have as much chance of Iceland height rises as we do greeny ...... anyway, lots of water (or ice)  to flow under the proverbial before we see how this cold spell plays out ......

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Just now, bluearmy said:

I’m not convinced we will see a greeny block  ...... as long as we get the sceuro trough then I expect even a dumbelling mid Atlantic ridge to suffice ... I actually think we have as much chance of Iceland height rises as we do greeny ...... anyway, lots of water (or ice)  to flow under the proverbial before we see how this cold spell plays out ......

That might be the case but we still need a decent high pressure to the nw allied with the Euro troughing and that won’t happen until that PV lobe over Canada relents and moves further to the nw .

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I’m not convinced we will see a greeny block  ...... as long as we get the sceuro trough then I expect even a dumbelling mid Atlantic ridge to suffice ... I actually think we have as much chance of Iceland height rises as we do greeny ...... anyway, lots of water (or ice)  to flow under the proverbial before we see how this cold spell plays out ......

Yes, i have thought that for a while now, of course the ultimate goal is a scandi high.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That might be the case but we still need a decent high pressure to the nw allied with the Euro troughing and that won’t happen until that PV lobe over Canada relents and moves further to the nw .

Or sinks south a bit allied to a gentle lessening of its depth ......... a deep e USA trough will draw its influence further south and encourage the mid Atlantic ridging 

i meant to comment earlier that the most encouraging part of the gefs week 2 was the stationary nature of the ridging to our west ..... up until now, it had tended to be rather mobile 

Edited by bluearmy

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Good news is, the GFS ensembles look stable or even like they might have improved.

12z

B410A413-C737-4AFF-8FB3-A50EF4F50220.thumb.png.e77858ef9a32f47cff188783bbd49706.png

18z

0481919B-15C8-4E78-B95E-0D40869DBA15.thumb.png.17020481cbc3a3430e35b52a761510ca.png

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Posted (edited)

Snowy northwesterly on the control run

gens-0-1-264.png

gens-0-0-276.png

Then going northerly or northeasterly

gens-0-1-312.png

Edited by The Eagle

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Posted (edited)

controls  fun backed  vortex says hello  with -8 from the west  then this

gensnh-0-1-324.png

Edited by weirpig

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Looks very interesting modelling that ties in with the SSW and the teleconnections forecasts. Has the GFS finally got a grip on the cold scenarios or is it leading us up the garden path (again)?

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ensembles  some cold runs in there

image.thumb.png.84813a484ab80a1f74f29f7e526ff3f1.png

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18z GEFS mean a good example of bluearmy's point about the stationary nature of the block, usually when its more rounded on a GEFS mean at say 276 for example in this setup, once the high moves a little closer there is usually only 2 outcomes - a sinker or a brief UK ridge, this time it continues to back west or at the very least hold its own - a sure fire singal for a cold spell and not just one of those pie in the sky ones that the ensembles pick up with no backing because of a wrongly modelled MJO or other tropical / teleconnective signals

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Very cold ENS 

8623EF58-8309-4F91-8853-405B952C7F63.thumb.gif.4794f2bd1c30193db310cbeab6fcf54c.gif

The Mean on the 23rd is about 3c 😱🥶

Kind of knew that was coming after i saw my own area mean struggling to 1c at times on the MEAN.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Kind of knew that was coming after i saw my own area mean struggling to 1c at times on the MEAN.

Reality is that’s skewed by the warmer runs. Not to say they aren’t possible, but the bulk are colder, so Ice days a real possibility !

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

Reality is that’s skewed by the warmer runs. Not to say they aren’t possible, but the bulk are colder, so Ice days a real possibility !

Yes, certainly 2c max - the last 3 days at least.

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11 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

Looks very interesting modelling that ties in with the SSW and the teleconnections forecasts. Has the GFS finally got a grip on the cold scenarios or is it leading us up the garden path (again)?

Can't say anything is for sure, but there is very sound reasoning for the colder runs coming out now, thats one thing for certain.

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Posted (edited)

17th/18th is a potentially interesting period, fair few purbs dipping the 850’s to very cold territory with nice ppn spikes!

again this is Central South Coast. 

683C4DE6-0E24-42A0-B9EA-72EFA8658E62.thumb.gif.69e037686e082f414eb0ad0689d83fa3.gif

Central England 

C8693114-2977-47AF-8C3F-FF80F8367BA4.thumb.gif.23745b2e54c48c3ec6f9ae3d2342a919.gif

I’m guessing slider!

Edited by karlos1983

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

If my land rover sees this, there'll be a puddle of engine wee in the morning...

 

 

Well,i am getting a little wee exited as the upgrades on upgrades keep on coming in,some fabulous outputs/models and posts today and it's great to see this thread getting along just nicely..for once🙂

now to add to some exellent posts/outputs today just to ramp it up a bit more:-

the latest from cpc 8-14 day 500mb outlook still shows a link up of heights in the atlantic with the arctic high and trough into Scandi including the uk now so the pattern (forecasted) to show the ridge further west in the atlantic to previous,we don't want it to back further west or we will run the risk of a west based -NAO

814day_03.thumb.gif.68b31b1b120f9449a69b30ff8faf564d.gif

again some nice model output this evening and here is the 18z gfs 500 + geo height anomoly of which is a perfect evolution to what we want to tick down to t0

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.c421c5bbe7b87806198b85a10f8fc7bf.pnggfsnh-12-384.thumb.png.53a6cfada438135bbc9ed4d5d842ba26.png

the control is another nice run too but that's as far west as we would like it,again further west and we run the risk of west based -NAO and the trough would fling milder air from it's eastern flank from the south

gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.dce228ae1b24b48e9461317c2b9a488a.pnggensnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.f1cbf4517b381122612f0b1590f8173f.pnggensnh-0-5-384.thumb.png.a04e3e4b12e3153bb5553a094f926d93.png

Gefs ens shows ridge west.trough east,that's not a bad mean at 384 hrs is it.

gensnh-21-1-384.thumb.png.68570b522a89daf930ba979f8b77e9ef.pnggensnh-21-5-384.thumb.png.d294411454290e6d2d4afe7c34305582.png

for my local(i am not imby)🙂as there is cold sets further south too,that is cold with just a few stragglers getting above the 0c line

graphe_ens3_pgz1.thumb.gif.e0e23d45a7ac164a7fd3e870fcea4f1d.gif

the black circles i want to see upgrades from and the left chart is for the wind direction and will be looking into this in the next few days,the right chart is the snow spikes,there is quiet a few there with some showing upto 8cm's

 

eps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.77ed94bc551259a2aff1169ba77ace3b.pngpluim_06260_0_12_60.thumb.png.b312964e221a21ac3d21548e7f702d0b.png

ok all the above are well into FL but we are looking for trends and the trends are going the right way🙂

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Even with the gfs and its overblown lows it still gets us on the Polar express. It's seems late Jan into March will reward our patience. Bring on those beautiful white flakes and sparkling frosts. Winters coming Home.

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Posted (edited)

Great ICON this morning, here T180 showing the start of the pattern that we are getting used to seeing by as early as next Wednesday.

image.thumb.jpg.c73240b07d930618ed581956a378b944.jpg

Lift off on the GEM too at T228:

image.thumb.jpg.cd31718b5754dbfb92eb57be6c762cf4.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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Posted (edited)

GFS again not bringing in the cold by next Wed like some of the the other models and plenty of the GEFS, although the 00z could still be a good FI. Hoping to see the GEFS start these snow chances by later next week again.

623159FA-4F66-47D5-9E11-853B1E86A4EE.png

Does come it with a baby scandy high by next Sat!! 

9B6109C7-1077-4CB7-8EB4-09ECFB1EEAC0.png

Edited by Ali1977

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Strange chart and evidence the GFS is picking up on a pattern change in FI-

The smallest of surface highs advects cold to UK-

image.thumb.png.3819262ef49f42ab98ec61ad3f9d989e.png

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