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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all

As we await the next instalment of the roller coaster, a thought or two from me as to where we might be going.

Last evening's ECM 12z got a lot of people very excited but this morning's offering more disappointing. The GFS 06Z OP once again promises bounty at the very end - the T+408 chart would be worth seeing while the NAVGEM 00Z output was well worth a look for cold fans.

The notion of "cold zonality" gets people agitated as it often leads to marginal set ups at low ground for snow. Yes, if you're up high and up north it usually delivers and it may be true some low ground will also get a covering but for the bulk of us in England and you'd better believe that's true of lowland East London, it's cold rain and unpleasant cold winds.

IF the trough digs south, we really need to see the heights respond to the NE but we continue to have upstream dramas. GFS 06Z Parallel maintained a strong PV right through firing off vigorous LP one after another but the Control drains away the PV letting a more amplified scenario evolve while the OP hints at the PV moving to the west also allowing amplification.and the resolution of that which is beyond my comprehension at this time.

As Johnny Nash said in 1972 "there are more questions than answers".

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The colder trend in the outputs showing for so long for around mid-month look to be on the money although i think we were hoping for deeper cold than currently showing.

 

559128473_ensemble-tt6-london(2).thumb.gif.84ba4b7b5fc7875b1d5b9e04d5f52072.gif

As it is the cold zonal pattern looks to be favoured for now with ongoing trough disruption heading se across the UK area around the ever present AH.This will bring transient injections of Arctic cold such as we see this week interspersed with some less cold interludes from the azores ridging.

It is frustrating though that we continue to wait for any consistent modeling of Arctic blocking even though the pv is weaker and stretched the space between the 2 main sectors at 500h Pa. is insufficient to allow more than Atlantic ridging.

Day 10 eps day 5/10


EDH1-120.thumb.gif.daf45c307981e4fe6fce808f2955f80c.gif1808306302_EDH1-240(2).thumb.gif.a26fbec23302169b91c456c8af333b1a.gif

Certainly some snowfall is likely further north and especially higher up and we cannot rule out some further south if we get an injection of Arctic air directly on a northerly/north easterly as any low on a favourable track heads south east with cold air to it's east being pulled into it's circulation.

The drawback is though it's still a mobile pattern and not yet a blocked cold outlook with deeper cold established which i feel many of us are still hoping for.

Just to finish the downwell of zonal wind reversal has been a protracted and far from smooth affair and this i an sure has caused NWP modeling to be so inconsistent.Developments to our desired setup then not necessarily off the table but for the time being we rely on a mobile cold but not deep cold pattern.

 

 

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Icon totally different with the way it handles the ESB low no separation what so ever now and runs along the base of the main low around Greenland.

iconnh-0-135.png

Leading to a flat solution .....

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Leading to a flat solution .....

The quicker the models get to an agreement on this low the better, causing a lot of noise.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

As a pancake.

iconnh-0-180.png

icon-0-180 (1).png

Couldn't ask for a worse start to the 12z really. I really can't see the UKMET being that much better in 20 minutes or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Couldn't ask for a worse start to the 12z really. I really can't see the UKMET being that much better in 20 minutes or so.

Q Nirvana charts :oldrofl: If yesterday taught us anything, it should be to not make assumptions at the moment. It's pretty chaotic in the nwp terms at the minute

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Hideous start from the ICON, things can only get better from the start to the 12zs! If we STILL get a result like this from the SSW, background signals and starting point we’ve had I think a lot of people will give up on this winter! 

76E6AF8B-C5D9-4F68-9E06-D782DFCE240C.png

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
5 minutes ago, booferking said:

As a pancake.

iconnh-0-180.png

icon-0-180 (1).png

That is like the gfs a few days ago. Absoulute shocking start and hard to see any blocking or true cold from there. So much energy crushing any ridging atempts.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Just now, frosty ground said:

Why can't you see an unrelated model being better?

The relatively short time frame that we're talking about.

Even if the UKMet is more amplified than the Icon, given the flatness of the Icon, I cannot see how the Met office will be sufficiently amplified to offer a cold/snowy solution.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

More than a few -5C minima, tomorrow night, perhaps? image.thumb.png.d1787a7265abe5cc2f999c549e28f18f.png

And maybe some sleet/snow on Friday afternoon?image.thumb.png.375e5b174b9c26498c6a489e8aa48bc4.png 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

That Azores high nudging into Iberia has been the bane of this winter so far, it hasn't had the decent opportunity to edge far enough North and instead keeps toppling over or to the SW of the UK as we get closer to T+0. I am still hopeful for something down the line, given the background signals and MetO updates, and await this evenings runs from behind the sofa...

The general theme of heights lowering in parts of Europe is still a positive, I feel.

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, Ed Stone said:

More than a few -5s, tomorrow night, perhaps? image.thumb.png.d1787a7265abe5cc2f999c549e28f18f.png

Especially under snow - slightly colder uppers in Fri so maybe more chance of some midlands north than the 06z

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The relatively short time frame that we're talking about.

Even if the UKMet is more amplified than the Icon, given the flatness of the Icon, I cannot see how the Met office will be sufficiently amplified to offer a cold/snowy solution.

So the GFS is wrong then?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Looks a tad better so far very early with better disruption, hopefully bodes well for the rest of the run.

gfsnh-0-84.png?12

UKMO also looking better at 12o

UN120-21.GIF?16-16

 

 

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

GFS 06z 96z and UKMO 12Z 96

gfs-0-96.png

UW96-21.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

UKMO probably going to end flat, although does again seem a bit of an improvement at +120

image.thumb.png.9809895b3fca63c5d63616dad299abd9.png

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