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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Could be wrong until the time frame is about 72 hours out

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12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I said yesterday that ECM and GFS would meet in the middle today, here is the 2 charts from yesterday’s ECM and GFS and today’s ECM. Perhaps a little too much GFS bashing yesterday ?

A5A1692E-2434-49F5-8547-81FC63F24A66.png

7B83FED1-0D4D-41B1-80EA-15603556EEBE.gif

9E174A87-5208-460E-B3AA-17C8E1643047.gif

It would be really helpful to compare like with like here. I would like to see the 0z charts from yesterday and today compared. 

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ECM Moyennes not too shabby

144z  168z 192z

 

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

Edited by winterof79

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 well disappointing to say the least anyway looking at the ECMWF this morning and last night GFS I think come next week it will be a blend between EC and GFS a half way house I think that this is what will happen 

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8 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

And this is why you shouldn't ramp one run and overnight it has decided to downgrade 😕

Now hopefully it's just a bilp but to be fair the GFS even though it has been bashed to oblivion...it could be right so I wouldn't discount it 

It was 2 runs like for like text book stuff you shouldn't ramp anything that's not 72hr are under you mean.

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17 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Let’s reserve judgement till we actually get to the dates shown on those maps. 

......which means "look out of the window"?

Computers eh?

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Too long?😁

Ditto:crazy:

At least we are not looking at a mild outlook, the GEFS 00z mean doesn't indicate anything mild, just less cold at times with an increasingly zonal set up with northern hills / mountains doing well for snow.

 

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Just out of curiosity, what’s the reaction if the 06z shows blocking akin to ECM from the 12z of yesterday? :shok:

 

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Just out of curiosity, what’s the reaction if the 06z shows blocking akin to ECM from the 12z of yesterday? :shok:

 

That would be the going up part of the roller coaster.

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

That would be the going up part of the roller coaster.

:oldrofl: Actually i think members usually skip that bit...... they just arrive at the top and it's all downhill from there 

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1 hour ago, markw2680 said:

ITS FI FOR A REASON! Did people really expect to come on here this morning to be greeted by the same charts as last night? Really, there will be upgrades and downgrades in every run between now and next week, don’t worry about it let’s get the cold here first before all the panic about a possible easterly 

And it's the same every morning lately then upgrades later in the day. So just wait a few hours 😊

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11 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

Which neither the GFS or ECM show. Both models still support troughing into Europe which is the opposite of the high pressure which we saw over the past month. At 240 hours (beyond any sort of reliable timeframe given the uncertainty over exact details), the ECM shows this:

image.thumb.png.5e8613692efc66832ee00e7596665571.png

The kink in the isobars to the West of Ireland suggests trough disruption which would prevent high pressure establishing to our South. To further muddy the smaller scale details, there is another storm exiting NE US/Canada, so again amplification would depend on the track of that storm. Given that we still don't know how the energy will phase for the storm forecast for early next week, it is pointless speculating on exactly how any further storms will affect the pattern downstream. For now, the high remains in the mid-Atlantic with ridging attempts. The MJO is forecast to move towards phase 6 by around the 23rd, which is much more conducive to blocking towards the north, so chances should increase after this point.

A further spanner in the works is the handling of the Pacific pattern; yesterday showed a strong push of heights from Alaska towards the Pole. This is much less pronounced today which also suggests that we await further resolution in that area:

image.thumb.png.a397747f0a7baec2018f55b5e2ce42df.png

 

 

Post of the morning..thus far.

And contains everything-that is....in a nutshell

👌👍

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2 hours ago, DCee said:

After years of watching models did anyone really expect the ECM not to back track? The GFS is a worthy model and compliments (balances) the ECM very well.

Absolutely, I kept away from here last night as the ramping was verging on hysterical. The golden rule of model watching is always, always wait for cross model alignment at T96 and then cross your fingers as it can still go wrong at that range. Not saying I don't expect to see some swing backs later - I've been around long enough to know how the drama unfolds, but it does seem to be a slow, blending out of any substantial cold as each day progresses, leaving us with a dose of good ol' fashioned PM air bringing its usual, standard wintry mix, so plenty to look forward to for hill walkers and those living in the remote Scottish Highlands.

Seriously though, as I've said before, while I'm not championing any particular model, as a Nescafé blend is always better than Mellow Birds, the GFS is definitely the picked on kid in the playground. It has a tendency to blow up LPs off the eastern seaboard and pump up the AZH for a reason; its modelling of the Northern Hemisphere profile is better than ECM in my view, which year on year can't resist producing HLB scenarios, that rarely come to fruition. 

Caveat; I'm not saying that there won't be further drama (there always is) but the now out of favour) De Bilt aside, the signs look ropey.

Edited by Easton Luna Boys

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For 10 days out that is a really good effort by both GFS & ECM

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18 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

Which neither the GFS or ECM show. Both models still support troughing into Europe which is the opposite of the high pressure which we saw over the past month. At 240 hours (beyond any sort of reliable timeframe given the uncertainty over exact details), the ECM shows this:

image.thumb.png.5e8613692efc66832ee00e7596665571.png

The kink in the isobars to the West of Ireland suggests trough disruption which would prevent high pressure establishing to our South. To further muddy the smaller scale details, there is another storm exiting NE US/Canada, so again amplification would depend on the track of that storm. Given that we still don't know how the energy will phase for the storm forecast for early next week, it is pointless speculating on exactly how any further storms will affect the pattern downstream. For now, the high remains in the mid-Atlantic with ridging attempts. The MJO is forecast to move towards phase 6 by around the 23rd, which is much more conducive to blocking towards the north, so chances should increase after this point.

A further spanner in the works is the handling of the Pacific pattern; yesterday showed a strong push of heights from Alaska towards the Pole. This is much less pronounced today which also suggests that we await further resolution in that area:

image.thumb.png.a397747f0a7baec2018f55b5e2ce42df.png

 

 

This is still a major player in the ext period as part of the highly amplified upstream ridge/trough complex

index.thumb.png.c337463ae9787f9364759e953de51d0a.png

 

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1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

And this is why you shouldn't ramp one run and overnight it has decided to downgrade 😕

Now hopefully it's just a bilp but to be fair the GFS even though it has been bashed to oblivion...it could be right so I wouldn't discount it 

To be fair as far as ECM goes it was 2 runs. 

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Could be a better run this one🤔!!more trough disruption at 114 hours across us and maybe looks a bit better across eastern us!!!more of an easterly flow across the south aswel!

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Could be a better run this one🤔!!more trough disruption at 114 hours across us and maybe looks a bit better across eastern us!!!more of an easterly flow across the south aswel!

It's a bit better upstream, but not enough to stop the pattern flattening on this run

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