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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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People shouldn't be shocked by the ICON, this is a 50/50 evolution. 

As I've said, I wouldn't be surprised if we bypass the Greenland heights phase and go Scandi heights very late Jan/early Feb

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UKMO not following the ECM unfortunately. Takes LP with the jet straight through the GIN corridor. Not enough of an angle for a diving low.

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2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

UKMO not following the ECM unfortunately. Takes LP with the jet straight through the GIN corridor. Not enough of an angle for a diving low.

Yes, too fast with that low exiting the ESB to allow an EC progression post day 6

Edited by CreweCold

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5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

GFS same, nite.

GEM looks decent though...lol

image.thumb.png.969d38836aead3b352d24a367c207e31.png

EC has the mighty GEM by its side. Lord help us.

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

As I've said, I wouldn't be surprised if we bypass the Greenland heights phase and go Scandi heights very late Jan/early Feb

image.thumb.png.43b991e659eb2f8d32d67e3fbacd4fc4.png

Maybe sniffing around my expectation for very end of Jan? 

Edited by CreweCold

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GEFS even worse than the 18z - less amplification.

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Not much support for ECM except just maybe UKMO would have some disruption and a handful of GFS ensemble members still go with good trough disruption around day 7/8 but many are flatter.

GEM, GFS and ICON are all pretty poor tbh.

Still plenty of drama to come I guess.

 

Edited by Mucka

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Least it's the models with the worst verification stats and lowest resolutions that are poor, waiting for ecm to restore the balance, hopefully 👌

Edited by SLEETY

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5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Not much support for ECM except just maybe UKMO would have some disruption and a handful of GFS ensemble members still go with good trough disruption around day 7/8 but many are flatter.

GEM, GFS and ICON are all pretty poor tbh.

Still plenty of drama to come I guess.

 

Ensemble mean at odds with EC46, that's for sure

image.thumb.png.b2bef7db5e5bb60acdb74ce02a1eb233.png

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Moving briefly forward from the short range with the gfs. The trough east of Greenland will track east and the associated fronts will briefly suppress the ridge as they track south east across the country on Tuesday bringing some rain sleet and snow along with some strong winds After this the high again surges but it's a continuing battle with the energy exiting the eastern seaboard.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_27.thumb.png.8f7d58faa9e8e24259381d6f0fc0f00c.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_32.thumb.png.d2e6aba92fed3775cc22dc56a74d94ea.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_37.thumb.png.b78441ca57493adf694854dabe3d2106.png

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Ensemble mean at odds with EC46, that's for sure

image.thumb.png.b2bef7db5e5bb60acdb74ce02a1eb233.png

And the GFS has 0% support from the EC

997769FA-4360-44DD-863F-7D56A1F075B7.thumb.png.40dfb576c358abd58df1de6726c19193.png

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4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Least it's the models with the worst verification stats and lowest resolutions that are poor, waiting for ecm to restore the balance, hopefully 👌

Oh most of them then ha ha 🤣 

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

And the GFS has 0% support from the EC

997769FA-4360-44DD-863F-7D56A1F075B7.thumb.png.40dfb576c358abd58df1de6726c19193.png

Matters not one jot if the EC turns out to be wrong. 

Not sure what your issue is, I've not dismissed cold and/or snow chances anywhere... And I've repeatedly said that I expect a Scandi high month's end. 

Edited by CreweCold

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Matters not one jot if the EC turns out to be wrong

How comes it doesn't matter I don't understand. 

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2 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

How comes it doesn't matter I don't understand. 

Because it'll all be academic and water under the bridge by that point as the clusters will have been wrong (in that scenario) 

Edited by CreweCold

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4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

And the GFS has 0% support from the EC

997769FA-4360-44DD-863F-7D56A1F075B7.thumb.png.40dfb576c358abd58df1de6726c19193.png

not strictly true, dont forget that a high anomaly in the Greenland locale can still mean a vortex, a low one is a vortex by definition - because the climatology is a vortex.

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What is it about the 0z runs - they always downgrade cold scenarios. 

I would be shocked if the ECM and it's clusters are so wrong given the timescale. 

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

not strictly true, dont forget that a high anomaly in the Greenland locale can still mean a vortex, a low one is a vortex by definition - because the climatology is a vortex.

He owns a weather website (I think) you'd think (hope) he would already know that. 

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Best we can hope for now is ECM op and ens to hold firm and see if we can have another go tonight at reversing it, can't see the 6z gefs all swinging back in one go

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At least GFSp gives it a go even if it fails by taking too much of the split energy NE.

gfsnh-0-168.png

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Not much in GFS ensembles to suggest any deep cold 

graphe3_1000_267_117___.gif

London temps certainly don't look much like last nights ECM's either

graphe6_1000_294_145___.gif

Edited by Mucka

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Back to hoping EC is on target!!

Agree with the others, 00z runs are not pretty viewing..

Not liking the look of that low coming off the ESB at 144 or either UKMO or GFS..

UKMO 144

image.thumb.png.0fbd2b58f341d8bd5910ef25fcfd9863.png

Think its fair to say if EC looks much like that then we have a major problem..(look at the tilt on the azores high) 😞

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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