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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Well that was hilarious watching GFS use every dirty trick in the book to stop the widespread HLB delivering us cold beyond the middle of next week!

Largely set in motion by it failing to separate areas of low heights (common GFS shortfall) plus the usual poleward bias.

If trends continue HLB-wise, especially N and NE of the UK, such a long-lived ‘trolling’ outcome will soon be invalidated (I’m not ruling out temporary LP position / alignment frustrations as those are unfortunately quite common).

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GFSP looking slightly more amplified out to +138 hours. 

12z vs 18z.

gfsp1.png

gfsp2.png

Another step in the right direction?

Edited by MattStoke
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10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFSP looking slightly more amplified out to +138 hours. 

12z vs 18z.

gfsp1.png

gfsp2.png

Another step in the right direction?

Not a huge step towards the ECM from the GFSP in the end, but a step nonetheless. Hopefully that continues tomorrow!

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The last Beast from the East in my neck of the woods 6ft  snow drifts all roads blocked off for 7 days.

Potential for another cracking easterly 

GFS seems frantic on the 18z. 

Nice ECM tonight lets hope that low coming of North America isn't going to affect this to much. 

20180301_140303.jpg

20180301_135258.jpg

Edited by sorepaw1
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29 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM ens - one straggler nearly hits -16c uppers for my area in the extended!!!

Getting near that minus 20c we talked about last night then daytime highs around minus 3 at minus16 hpa I think, not bad 🤗

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Please note that there are threads for the Met office longer range forecasts. Please use these threads for discussions relating to these forecasts as they will be removed from the Model thread which is busy enough with the current output.

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A warmer continental easterly here now by the GFS P. The synoptic pattern is there again but you just need that cold pool to feed on!

And then as if by magic we go on to form our own cold pool!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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GEFS 18z seem to be stuck on meteociel but the anomaly charts seem to be fine on here 

264h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_45.thumb.png.8b3774e0c3b3a609f282ab4c8143503c.png  306h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_52.thumb.png.add52a39a74c2ffe3d6de1e1ad0539c7.png  384h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.6c10a6aba066b5a835afe2ced8074ad0.png days 10 - 14 gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_10.thumb.png.8b2363b360a449882f2a520337465da7.png 

days 11-15 981744243_gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_11(1).thumb.png.6a067b78143b67b7e8ff223cc4b4e9aa.png  days 12 - 16 gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.thumb.png.935a23453900f5597951e87567119243.png  a few others gfs-ens_mslpaMean_nhem_12.thumb.png.ba83f59d76a1ba772a6d31c2a3fed079.png  gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_44.thumb.png.6c42ec009b1843c683ed6f41d1c0f082.png gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_50.thumb.png.f12cc3992bbf5d0852fb252da6ba1940.png gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_65.thumb.png.f9227a9ff8103ec6bec045a693bac126.png  still on route for blocking 😍 🙂 

 

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18 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Getting near that minus 20c we talked about last night then daytime highs around minus 3 at minus16 hpa I think, not bad 🤗

Did you find out if the year was 1895 btw?

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4 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

GEFS 18z seem to be stuck on meteociel but the anomaly charts seem to be fine on here 

264h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_45.thumb.png.8b3774e0c3b3a609f282ab4c8143503c.png  306h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_52.thumb.png.add52a39a74c2ffe3d6de1e1ad0539c7.png  384h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.6c10a6aba066b5a835afe2ced8074ad0.png days 10 - 14 gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_10.thumb.png.8b2363b360a449882f2a520337465da7.png 

days 11-15 981744243_gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_11(1).thumb.png.6a067b78143b67b7e8ff223cc4b4e9aa.png  days 12 - 16 gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.thumb.png.935a23453900f5597951e87567119243.png  a few others gfs-ens_mslpaMean_nhem_12.thumb.png.ba83f59d76a1ba772a6d31c2a3fed079.png  gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_44.thumb.png.6c42ec009b1843c683ed6f41d1c0f082.png gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_50.thumb.png.f12cc3992bbf5d0852fb252da6ba1940.png gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_65.thumb.png.f9227a9ff8103ec6bec045a693bac126.png  still on route for blocking 😍 🙂 

 

What does that mean in layman's terms and what are the areas showing please 

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A few GEFS members going sig below -10c now as well.

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Did you find out if the year was 1895 btw?

No I think it was earlier, but website that showed it has gone 😞if the trend in the models continue we could be looking at a severe February like 1947,or1895, hoping. The cma Chinese model is very similar to ecm too from its 12z run

Edited by SLEETY
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GFS 18z ensembles, what a mess!🤣

It will smell the coffee soon enough no doubt!:cold:

graphe_ens3.gif

Edited by snowray

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The running CET for Feb 1895 was --4.3 C as late as 14th and 15th. For 1855 it was --3.1 C by the 20th. These months were only passed by 1947 on the last day or so, when that year set the lowest February CET of --1.9. The cold spell in Feb 1895 set several daily records below -7 and lost one when it failed to overcome the -8.8 from 1816 (but that was in a much shorter cold spell). 

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6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

No I think it was earlier, but website that showed it has gone 😞if the trend in the models continue we could be looking at a severe February like 1847,or1895, hoping. The cma Chinese model is very similar to ecm too from its 12z run

The gfs ensembles are trending lower, forget minus 10,the minus 15 hpa line is the new form horse 😉

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3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The running CET for Feb 1895 was --4.3 C as late as 14th and 15th. For 1855 it was --3.1 C by the 20th. These months were only passed by 1947 on the last day or so, when that year set the lowest February CET of --1.9. The cold spell in Feb 1895 set several daily records below -7 and lost one when it failed to overcome the -8.8 from 1816 (but that was in a much shorter cold spell). 

Do you know the Feb that had a mean temp. Of minus 6.6c for first half . Might be getting near that this month if this trend continues. 

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I believe the JMA long ranger was painting quite an extreme picture for February, with easterly winds all around the globe at say 50 degrees north. 

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2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

The gfs ensembles are trending lower, forget minus 10,the minus 15 hpa line is the new form horse 😉

Yes but they are quite frankly all over the place, so pretty useless.

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26 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Do you know the Feb that had a mean temp. Of minus 6.6c for first half . Might be getting near that this month if this trend continues. 

I have worked out the lowest running values from the daily data and that -4.3 is the lowest (for 1-14 or 1-15 Feb). You can find the coldest weeks on record in my post in the historical weather section (the 2012 edition, has not been updated to the 2018 edition yet). Maybe what you saw was an average for the core of the 1895 cold spell because it wasn't extremely cold for the first few days. Certainly the second week would have averaged close to -6.6 though.

For late January cold, 1776 had a week that averaged -6 C and still holds all daily records for 27th to 31st. 1795, 1881 and 1963 had some very low average values for consecutive days in late January also. I think the bottom line is that this cold spell on some guidance is approaching those limits and the absolute limit must be the -12 C that was the coldest daily mean on record in Jan 1838. That was on the 20th. 

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44 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I have worked out the lowest running values from the daily data and that -4.3 is the lowest (for 1-14 or 1-15 Feb). You can find the coldest weeks on record in my post in the historical weather section (the 2012 edition, has not been updated to the 2018 edition yet). Maybe what you saw was an average for the core of the 1895 cold spell because it wasn't extremely cold for the first few days. Certainly the second week would have averaged close to -6.6 though.

For late January cold, 1776 had a week that averaged -6 C and still holds all daily records for 27th to 31st. 1795, 1881 and 1963 had some very low average values for consecutive days in late January also. I think the bottom line is that this cold spell on some guidance is approaching those limits and the absolute limit must be the -12 C that was the coldest daily mean on record in Jan 1838. That was on the 20th. 

Wow. That's some statement Roger if you think some of the records could be  equalled. A mean of minus 12 would have to see max temps of around minus 10c!

You must think the models must have underestimated the depth of cold coming so far. Does seem that way if you look how much colder the ensembles are trending now. 

This forum might be going into bedlam soon! 

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I don't think that -12 is in a lot of danger but some of the daily records around 3-5 February are weak ones (low hanging fruit so to speak) and if cold intensifies around then, one of those could fall. These more robust records are near the outer edge but last March we did nip one from 1785 (1st of March, -3.8) and weeks ending 2-4 March 2018 rank second coldest. But I'm basically just responding to your conversation about what the absolute coldest periods were at this time of year. Anything seems possible given the range of model output we've been seeing, but with the warmer oceans, it's difficult to get within 1 or even 2 degrees of old records, you can have the same atmosphere but it does pick up that extra bit of warmth (and then dumps it as extra bits of snow, perhaps). That was certainly the case in Wexford and Wicklow last year (70 cm of snow reported in places).

Edited by Roger J Smith
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