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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Still no height rises showing up over Greenland as far as the eye can see....out to 240hrs anyway.

Yes the flow is turning cooler with hill snow for the North. Nothing unusual for mid winter though of course will feel .cold after the incredibly benign and mild last few weeks. The grass is growing here like it's mid march

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Pretty good snow figures for your area too, a mean of 3cm!

(Snow depths are just for fun though, I know that! ;)

Yes thats a stonker although i don't look at them, but 3cm is good given that there is still going to be a significant mild cluster with 0cm.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Still no height rises showing up over Greenland as far as the eye can see....out to 240hrs anyway.

Yes the flow is turning cooler with hill snow for the North. Nothing unusual for mid winter though of course will feel .cold after the incredibly benign and mild last few weeks. The grass is growing here like it's mid march

I did mention this yesterday , nothing consistent with regards a GH - early days though 8th Jan 

Its a slower run with regards getting cooler /colder air from the NW

One run so no need to worry 

Edited by Banbury
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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Struggling to see a way to cold from this, looks flat. Only one run, hopefully a rogue one. 

37D8EE25-2D07-44A2-9596-226090516B4F.png

But that Artic high is much more robust  expect the vortex to melt away   ho-pefully

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Struggling to see a way to cold from this, looks flat. Only one run, hopefully a rogue one. 

37D8EE25-2D07-44A2-9596-226090516B4F.png

Its actually cold right there at that point!!!   and one frame later -8c isn't far off Scotland.

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9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Still no height rises showing up over Greenland as far as the eye can see....out to 240hrs anyway.

Yes the flow is turning cooler with hill snow for the North. Nothing unusual for mid winter though of course will feel .cold after the incredibly benign and mild last few weeks. The grass isYgrowing here like it's mid march

Take yer eyepatch off yer eye then! After 240 is when the fun is expected to begin.

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Pub run T240:

image.thumb.jpg.ad70bd3d445980e6f598725f1ecfbb87.jpg

This one looks like it has totally lost the plot.  That low in the North Atlantic, and then the lack of surface pressure contours in that horrid vortex west of Greenland. Really?

For the bin!

Edited by Mike Poole
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run T240:

image.thumb.jpg.ad70bd3d445980e6f598725f1ecfbb87.jpg

This one looks like it has totally lost the plot.  That low in the North Atlantic, and then the lack of surface pressure contours in that horrid vortex west of Greenland. 

For the bin!

It might still end Ok actually.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I don’t want to pour cold water on the seemingly festive mood in here but until we see concrete changes count down then we need to be cautious .

The rampant PV lobe over ne Canada needs to weaken and displace further to the nw .

The ECM somehow manages to get the cold quite far south but I’m not impressed with how it does that and the Arctic high has weakened .

Theres a danger the EC longer range is being seen as a done deal . 

Oh yes, although im still reasonably optimistic, the last few GFS runs stratospherically haven't done a great deal favourable to help this happen - yes sufficiently for cold spells, not sufficiently for a stonking long lasting Greenland high.

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

Well it ends well ?

BB0DFFCF-A1ED-4398-8F05-81B7BA1DC64F.png

671C0F9E-2063-418D-B07E-AB5810FC034E.png

another scenario being played out   this time it was around the houses.  stonking arctic high on that run though

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Notwithstanding what i have just said about the strat though, the last 2 GFS runs have shown serious longjevity and repeated episodes of the split 3 daughter vortice situation and IF verified, would probably give chances of cold spells right the way through the meteorological winter.

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6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well it ends well ?

BB0DFFCF-A1ED-4398-8F05-81B7BA1DC64F.png

671C0F9E-2063-418D-B07E-AB5810FC034E.png

All roads lead to Rome when a SSW is calling the shots!  That does actually look like the expected end position, consistent with many ensemble members, just looked dodgy to me earlier on!  And in that case can we really take the T384 chart seriously?   Probably not, but there will be more runs in the morning...

Edited by Mike Poole
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FV3-GFS not available for the rest of the night hopefully back online tomorrow already it looks much better than it's older brother in the way of wild swings and better verification stats as for last GFS pub run straight for the bin night all things looking up again?

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