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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Decent oscillation..

Though bless her..

Shes fighting with all ..

To make things as difficult as poss...

@gfs

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Slowly getting there, will take the gfs op a couple more runs maybe. Will be interesting to see how many ensembles have moved towards the ECM too. Look how different the 12z is vs 18z. Winter is coming! Never rated the gfs anyway ;)

AFB81DD3-4AD2-4D67-9C9F-3BD482C7BC75.png

50B9101A-79DB-4EAE-B6CB-73B810720FB3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

It was doing great until 168, then it seems to have gone a bit silly with big differences versus the 12z

18z image.thumb.png.d8e85b8c5bc686401a84ddd73dd38101.png 12z image.thumb.png.46c401c3dff29734409af4bd2e7f77cc.png

Fair do's though, it did well up to day 7, which is a very good start.  Hopefully, the Para can climb aboard a bit later?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

When viewing the GFS nxt 7 days..heres ya friend..

And the models foe!!.

Should see some elevated top dynamics..as ec..

Through the route!!

Screenshot_2019-01-15-22-31-27.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
10 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

exactly what i said!! i must be talking to myself. i clearly said the GFS WONT flip totally to the ECM.

Sorry wasn’t clear. I mean it won’t totally move towards ECM. The final outcome will probably not be as good as its 12z offering, although I think the GFS will move further. It’s nearly always a blended solution.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

A very nice window of heights opening up east of Iceland towards scandi on the pub run  

could be similar to ECM this run. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Looks like the PV doesn't quite play ball on this run of the 18z, though its certainly moving in the right direction. The split this time seems to be focusing more on the Scandi high area, maybe a touch too far east for us, but we will see, its certainly a messy pattern the 198z GFS is showing.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Yes keep an eye on developments over on the Pacific sector, a sharper more defined ridge being shown nosing its was into the Pole, which will mean a sharper more defined amplified flow over NE USA/E Canada, what remains of the PV lobe will be stretched, and conversely allows for WAA west side of Greenland - which will be for the key to enabling heights to build to our NW - with the core of any heights building to our NE quickly transferring towards Iceland and east Greenland region.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Taking bare face values..

Ie -12z ens..@london @Aberdeen

Lets await and compare the 2 sets!!.

Already when outed a large scale difference is a worthy punt...via 850hpa!!

#we await...

Watch mean and-members!!!!

MT8_London_ens (12).png

MT8_Aberdeen_ens (1).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Stunning extended JMA

JE252-21_cdk9.GIF

Not too dissimilar to the the ECM. Just that the high pressure to our north is a bit further east. Better easterly flow as a result.

GFS looking rather isolated, once again.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Good to see some very good charts from different models cropping up in the 7-8 day range. Can we finally break the poor run of the 00z suites? Fed up with starting my day in a bad mood!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well the upper high has finally got going and developing a ridge, but there is an utter dearth of cold air due to the upper low that lingers near our shores and mixes out any cold we do get. Also the pattern may start to flatten upstream again by 312hrs and so any cold that does make it may not last that long.

Fairly poor GFS 18z all things considered, especially given how strong the arctic high becomes.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

I know it's deep in Fl but this chart is crazy, what's the AO -4,-5,  models picking up the tropospheric response to the SSW it's going to get lively in here

Screenshot_20190115-225250.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
5 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

The JMA is the beast in all its glory

Screenshot_20190115-224814.png

Screenshot_20190115-224828.png

JMA got the right idea. Stunning chart .

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Good to see some very good charts from different models cropping up in the 7-8 day range. Can we finally break the poor run of the 00z suites? Fed up with starting my day in a bad mood!

i know! just for once dammit

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

I think we are firmly on course here and the GFS transition is underway as of this evening. It all depends on the modelling of the jet and that low pressure coming out of North America between 144 and 168. I'll stick with ECM consistency but that JMA run is similarly awesome. And there is a lot of other evidence a corner has finally been turned in the long hunt for a substantial pattern change.

All good as of now.

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know it’s at T324 but that chart is just nuts . 

D215CAB2-5CB8-49CC-963F-F8EED969F432.png

Wow...all in all a good day looking at the models. some epic charts have been churned out, they may well be gone by the morning but they will return in the evening. im now 100% certain that the UK is about to be plunged into an epic winter spell that will live long in the memory and will be the focus point for winters to come, no more 1947 no more 1963 no more Jan 87.. it will be Jan/Feb/March 2019...i say bring it on give us all the snow we crave but also give us enough notice so we can go get bread an milk before the shops run out.. mon the snow

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