Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Pub run vs ECM at 162/168 - CHECK!

ECM image.thumb.png.42a1028e8f957629e17c531b285b26cf.png GFS image.thumb.png.3a10cd7893dd8d109ea5d5c26d019957.png

 Whilst not all the way there, this is a big move by the GFS, and by THE PUB RUN 😲

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pub run T168:

image.thumb.jpg.ee0c00d97b99d17e2467ca5190c52df7.jpg

Just as good as ECM, in my opinion.  This one will be a stonker! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The pacific sector being modeled a tad better here..

and falls in line..

The 18z should start 2 note the energy notions..and alarm the split..

And yes in the correct sectors!!

gfsnh-0-162.png

Edited by tight isobar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.d0859378c97645896cc171375c79673b.png

168..

That will do!!

Super chart somebody must have rebooted The GFS.It is smelling the coffee! Or Sherry😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Just remember folks that the GFS wont suddenly just flip to ECM output it will do it bit by bit hoping that nobody notices it.

Please don’t expect the GFS to move totally towards tonight’s ECM 12z. Anyone thinking that is setting themselves up for disappointment!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very big steps towards the ECM. Even if it doesn’t fully make it on this run.

Edited by MattStoke

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Please don’t expect the GFS to move totally towards tonight’s ECM 12z. Anyone thinking that is setting themselves up for disappointment!

exactly what i said!! i must be talking to myself. i clearly said the GFS WONT flip totally to the ECM.

Edited by bigsnow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAVGEM more or less in line with the ECM again. Good jet stream profile, only going one way.

navgem-0-174.png?15-23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Decent oscillation..

Though bless her..

Shes fighting with all ..

To make things as difficult as poss...

@gfs

 

Edited by tight isobar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slowly getting there, will take the gfs op a couple more runs maybe. Will be interesting to see how many ensembles have moved towards the ECM too. Look how different the 12z is vs 18z. Winter is coming! Never rated the gfs anyway ;)

AFB81DD3-4AD2-4D67-9C9F-3BD482C7BC75.png

50B9101A-79DB-4EAE-B6CB-73B810720FB3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It was doing great until 168, then it seems to have gone a bit silly with big differences versus the 12z

18z image.thumb.png.d8e85b8c5bc686401a84ddd73dd38101.png 12z image.thumb.png.46c401c3dff29734409af4bd2e7f77cc.png

Fair do's though, it did well up to day 7, which is a very good start.  Hopefully, the Para can climb aboard a bit later?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When viewing the GFS nxt 7 days..heres ya friend..

And the models foe!!.

Should see some elevated top dynamics..as ec..

Through the route!!

Screenshot_2019-01-15-22-31-27.png

Edited by tight isobar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

exactly what i said!! i must be talking to myself. i clearly said the GFS WONT flip totally to the ECM.

Sorry wasn’t clear. I mean it won’t totally move towards ECM. The final outcome will probably not be as good as its 12z offering, although I think the GFS will move further. It’s nearly always a blended solution.

Edited by Djdazzle

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A very nice window of heights opening up east of Iceland towards scandi on the pub run 🍻 

could be similar to ECM this run. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like the PV doesn't quite play ball on this run of the 18z, though its certainly moving in the right direction. The split this time seems to be focusing more on the Scandi high area, maybe a touch too far east for us, but we will see, its certainly a messy pattern the 198z GFS is showing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes keep an eye on developments over on the Pacific sector, a sharper more defined ridge being shown nosing its was into the Pole, which will mean a sharper more defined amplified flow over NE USA/E Canada, what remains of the PV lobe will be stretched, and conversely allows for WAA west side of Greenland - which will be for the key to enabling heights to build to our NW - with the core of any heights building to our NE quickly transferring towards Iceland and east Greenland region.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The jet stream is off on a trip south, by the look of it.

Do experienced posters expect the extent of downward energy to be modified as we go towards T=O? 

What usually happens regarding corrections in this kind of scenario? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...