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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Just a thought they will be going off the 00z runs . GFS 00z had the high coming in from the west . The ECM 00z had easterly still same as tonight . 

 

That would make sense, as the American model output they showed had high pressure centred too far south to bring in an easterly and instead had milder Atlantic air coming round the top of it, into the UK. Whereas the 12z GFS has a weak easterly  flow, thanks to the high being slightly further north.

On that basis, maybe a swing towards the easterly (ECM) solution since that video was put together. That would certainly be closer to what the seasonal models have been predicting.

Edited by MattStoke

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33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Here’s your day 9 50hpa to compare with yesterday’s day 10 you posted 

A4C82AD3-353E-4113-85FC-DDAD04D90F10.thumb.jpeg.97210bd0bca0a59858625f7705640a7b.jpeg

Hehe - so even better then 🙂 

EDIT - like that view too - better than the Berlin format I think. I wish I could remember the exact shape of the Beast downwell from Feb - from memory the initial trough wasn't so deep and we had a handy shard drive east to west from the Siberian side bringing the tropospheric pattern with it. This time we wont have that immediate easterly feed - but slower build leading to longevity. And the 850s I posted earlier across Europe and Scandy are fantastic...….

Edited by Catacol

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That would make sense, as the American model output they showed had high pressure centred too far south to bring in an easterly and instead had milder Atlantic air coming round the top of it, into the UK. Whereas the 12z GFS has a weak easterly  flow, thanks to the high being slightly further north.

On that basis, maybe a swing towards the easterly (ECM) solution since that video was put together.

Yep you got it the gfs has started  to come round as the days gone on 👍

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That would make sense, as the American model output they showed had high pressure centred too far south to bring in an easterly and instead had milder Atlantic air coming round the top of it, into the UK. Whereas the 12z GFS has a weak easterly  flow, thanks to the high being slightly further north.

On that basis, maybe a swing towards the easterly (ECM) solution since that video was put together. That would certainly be closer to what the seasonal models have been predicting.

Looked to me like the para 12z run that d bett was showing just then 

with the eps sitting somewhere in between the two op solutions end next week, I guess the no preferred outcome isn’t a shock 

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Just now, chionomaniac said:

The ECM has better strat resolution so will pick up on this sooner. I would expect to see some great blocking charts on the GFS too from now onwards.....

Thanks for the reply 

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At least I can retire in the almost certain knowledge that, tomorrow morning, all thing will be pointing SNOW...?:unsure2:

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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The N24 forecast due up now will helpfully be using newer data .......

just confused me even more so it did..

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

At least I can retire in the almost certain knowledge that, tomorrow morning, all thing will be pointing SNOW...?

How long have you been doing this Ed???

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1 minute ago, bigsnow said:

just confused me even more so it did..

Fence sitting at its best !!

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4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The ECM has better strat resolution so will pick up on this sooner. I would expect to see some great blocking charts on the GFS too from now onwards.....

Good luck with that C!!

 

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Wondering if the 18z may move even more to ecm? Would be good to see, oh and now we are starting to see some snaw chances where is mr snaw himself? He’s disappeared. Maybe he’s getting his sledge ready 

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GFS definitely more amplified towards Greenland.

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OK, a comparison between the GFS 18z at 138 vs the ECM and UKMO at 144

GFS image.thumb.png.3a05bb0dda0814f84f427c0b92045b96.png ECM image.thumb.png.baf2de20d334a99b398d20bd0e9fef15.png UK image.thumb.png.b962e06663c9b993ba1b05b41c98b5bc.png

GFS is looking very like the ECM, UKMO on it's own!!!

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3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Wondering if the 18z may move even more to ecm? Would be good to see, oh and now we are starting to see some snaw chances where is mr snaw himself? He’s disappeared. Maybe he’s getting his sledge ready 

Are you talking about more snow?  i was watching the banter thread and all his posts are now under guest! no idea what that means maybe left the site or something like that i would say. 

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Just now, chionomaniac said:

Mark my words this gts run is going to be better. Look at the difference in mid Atlantic trough separation and amplification compared to last run at t+132

Hope your right C . This place will go into meltdown if it moves towards the EC 👍

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Pub run T138

image.thumb.jpg.0a9cd745800f0947925d5a77ba7d1dea.jpg

You can tell now this is going to be a more amplified run leading to good things later!

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Gfs 18z..

As thought..

See the separation.

And angle of-atlantic jet-dip..

Its the ecm haunting the sister mod!!!

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7 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Wondering if the 18z may move even more to ecm? Would be good to see, oh and now we are starting to see some snaw chances where is mr snaw himself? He’s disappeared. Maybe he’s getting his sledge ready 

Yea it's getting there that's for sure.

gfsnh-0-156.png

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17 minutes ago, Nick F said:

While the 18z roll us out, noticed the 12z GFS is finally picking up on the easterly winds pushing down through the stratosphere making their imprint in the troposphere, -5 u-wind below 500mb at the end of the month, this infers high latitude blocking to develop.

12zGFS_uwind.thumb.JPG.23cc2f23280b4ab3f24f44b0fa7d1ea7.JPG

Couple this with impressive Rossby wave breaking over the N Atlantic in response to upstream deep cold vortex lobe pushed south across N America, as shown towards the tropopause in the 315K chart from 12z EC below, 

loop.thumb.gif.ba847c607684df2c94a213530240aece.gif

this wave breaking is usually the precursor to omega blocking highs that have staying power, you can even make out the omega shape, the block favoured by EC to be over far N Atlantic/Greenland/Iceland. This block further re-inforced by the easterly wind imprint from the lower stratosphere dripping down. This pattern could be hard to shift it forms, thanks to forces from above and below.

 

Indeed we've just endured a 3 week period of an omega block, but unfortunately the centre of the block was over the UK and the cold was spilled out down through central and eastern europe - alas this time round the centre should be much further to the west, enabling the cold to spill down over the UK - that't the theory - anyhow given how weak the zonal westerlies are forecast to be over coming weeks, then such a pattern should have a long holding power - the theme since the SSW last year, we've had long lengthy locked in periods of similiar weather - with the atlantic in slumber throughout.

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Not all that different from the 12z ECM thus far on the GFS. I think the 18z GFS will probably still initially favour the Scandi high rather than Greenland looking at the way the LP over NE Canada is deepening and the slant of it, but got to think that any true northern blocking wouldn't be far behind.

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ECM ensembles - the mean daily maximum goes below 5C on Thursday, and then never gets back to 5C until the end of the run on the 30th. In fact after the weekend the mean maximum stays below 3C until the 30th. An extended spell of cold coming up. But the snow depths have dropped in the past 36 hours. 

Edited by Man With Beard

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