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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

 

should keep the interest going ......

incidentally @catcol, you may need to revisit your strat charts in the morning .....they will be rather different than they have been - both ec runs consistent today ........

Is that a positive or negative.......

this is hardly the time for cryptic messages. 🤨

Edited by karlos1983

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19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

incidentally @catcol, you may need to revisit your strat charts in the morning .....they will be rather different than they have been - both ec runs consistent today ........

That's intriguing......what's the trend today? I envy you lucky early data-birds.... 🙂

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Just tearing through the ECM ensembles, some VERY snowy looking runs again, though probably an increase of the runs that give little when compared to the 12z/00z previous runs. Many widespread 4-6 inches on there between the 21st-25th Jan and thus a very snowy set overall, with surprisingly good agreement on timings of the LP dropping southwards.

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2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

That's intriguing......what's the trend today? I envy you lucky early data-birds.... 🙂

CB0B7ECB-7632-4B0B-8F09-F9B0AF073E1A.thumb.gif.e0e437215779498b897d1de7c24e10b7.gif

Yesterdays data already has shown the ability for high pressure to oscillate between Scandinavia and Greenland regions. I’m intrigued.

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10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Is that a positive or negative.......

this is hardly the time for cryptic messages. 🤨

I`m taking that as a positive Karlos, only due to musings on the other side of the pond where they are expecting the effects of the SSW to open the doors on their doorstep.

EDIT: What I mean by that is that if the effects are starting to happen there then they must be starting here as presumed.

Edited by Stuie W

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And 30hpa .... gfs op latest runs have also shifted this way though the ridge placement bit further east than ec

EDD40A2D-936D-4D2C-8EB1-E1CE72BE6DC8.thumb.jpeg.4bd14803fce2ee04a0f35833b6c3cded.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Here’s your day 9 50hpa to compare with yesterday’s day 10 you posted 

A4C82AD3-353E-4113-85FC-DDAD04D90F10.thumb.jpeg.97210bd0bca0a59858625f7705640a7b.jpeg

Could you explain the implications?

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Here’s your day 9 50hpa to compare with yesterday’s day 10 you posted 

A4C82AD3-353E-4113-85FC-DDAD04D90F10.thumb.jpeg.97210bd0bca0a59858625f7705640a7b.jpeg

Blue, if i am looking at that chart correctly.. that is amazing heights/blocking over the pole

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BBC 10 day video showed both the ECM and GFS output for next week and said there is currently no favoured evolution.

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6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

BBC 10 day video showed both the ECM and GFS output for next week and said there is currently no favoured evolution.

Well, let`s be honest, we would take both.

Edit: a blend that is.

gfsnh-0-186.png

ECH1-192.png

Edited by Stuie W

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And 30hpa .... gfs op latest runs have also shifted this way though the ridge placement bit further east than ec

EDD40A2D-936D-4D2C-8EB1-E1CE72BE6DC8.thumb.jpeg.4bd14803fce2ee04a0f35833b6c3cded.jpeg

could you explain what this means for us?? thanks.

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7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

BBC 10 day video showed both the ECM and GFS output for next week and said there is currently no favoured evolution.

As GFS has swung towards ECM , I'd be happy with their prognosis 

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Looks as if everything's positive: HLB, easterly winds and snow at times...What could be better?:santa-emoji:

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

BBC 10 day video showed both the ECM and GFS output for next week and said there is currently no favoured evolution.

They sure did . Watch this space . They showed the low sliding into Southern Europe. Think we’re take that one 👇

69847EDC-F800-426A-A113-EDC21812325E.png

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Actually, when they showed what they said the American model (GFS) is showing, it had the high pressure over the UK centred further south with milder Atlantic air coming over the top of it. It looked worse than the GFS op really 🤔

They did also show the ECM outlook, with cold easterly winds bringing in snow showers.

High uncertainty basically. Depends how far north that area of high pressure sets up.

Edited by MattStoke

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3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The charts ba has posted shows the geopotential height anomaly towards the lower reaches of the stratosphere. It shows that the SSW has downwelled to the level just above the trop and significantly so. It favours trop HLBs gig time! That is a very negative NAM which translates to a very negative AO

So negatives that are a positive! all sound dam good to me. 

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5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Actually, when they showed what they said the American model (GFS) is showing, it had the high pressure over the UK centred further south with milder Atlantic air coming over the top of it. It looked worse than the GFS op really 🤔

They did also show the ECM outlook, with cold easterly winds bringing in snow showers.

High uncertainty basically.

Just a thought they will be going off the 00z runs . GFS 00z had the high coming in from the west . The ECM 00z had easterly still same as tonight . 

There always work on the mornings runs data . 

Edited by ICE COLD

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

Just a thought they will be going off the 00z runs . GFS 00z had the high coming in from the west . The ECM 00z had easterly still same as tonight . 

 

The N24 forecast due up now will helpfully be using newer data .......

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

well firstly, as the op output has suddenly seen some big Atlantic riidging appear, the mid strat has responded almost in tandem. It should be the other way around ....it may well be but the timescales are very close considering the difference between 50 hpa and 500 hpa 

also note the lack of vortex over ne Canada. That’s a change and allows the greeny ridge to exist.  If the trop and mid /lower strat are as close as this then generally the trop output is fairly reliable.  The changes seen today probably reflects the downwelling imprinting from strat to trop .... shame we don’t have the eps strat data to see how that compares .....

Is this why we are seeing the Stella charts from the ECM ? It’s picked up the signal ?

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