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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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I assume that the mean ridge is suppressed se on the mean compared to the op because plenty of eps members have a more positively tilted system off the esb day 7 which then evolves in a closer fashion to the gfs (though a little more traction with the upper ridge). The negatively tilted trough brings WAA to blow up the ridge and then undercuts it. Hopefully the ec op has this one correct as it’s the fastest route to wintry nirvana 

the trend in fi eps is to re amplify the mid Atlantic ridge as per the 00z suite and previous guidance 

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22 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Can never find that chart on TWO could you post the link,please,getting towards the minus 20 hpa now lol,their were some frigid ensemble runs yesterday evening.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

1 minute ago, Raythan said:

Always intrigued why you post ensembles 250 miles away from you , here’s ones a little nearer 

 

ED573DB1-3DF4-4B4B-9CC2-2DDD020C1059.jpeg

Just habbit London was the only one available when TWO 1st brought it out and that's the one I have bookmarked

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GFS gives a 48hr period from Tuesday with snow chances right across the country, still a possibility and if it deliveries it may receive more credit than it’s been given lately

1112D1AA-28E7-460C-A4C0-5C9FC4163095.png

81C04090-AA3E-496C-8B3F-22B41B043566.png

28815E42-A58C-4E08-A533-73A56CD44FED.png

1388BB29-79B7-4C89-8319-57631712A7D9.png

A2E454E5-81DF-4AB7-B61C-3CD1B48F920F.png

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4 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

GFS gives a 48hr period from Tuesday with snow chances right across the country, still a possibility and if it deliveries it may receive more credit than it’s been given lately

1112D1AA-28E7-460C-A4C0-5C9FC4163095.png

81C04090-AA3E-496C-8B3F-22B41B043566.png

28815E42-A58C-4E08-A533-73A56CD44FED.png

1388BB29-79B7-4C89-8319-57631712A7D9.png

A2E454E5-81DF-4AB7-B61C-3CD1B48F920F.png

So does the ECM.🤙

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019011512_180_1642_215.png

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Interesting slight change on the ensemble NAEFS 12z

linkup of heights at 300h naefsnh-0-0-300.thumb.png.be630460d4ecf9ad71c24c1bf58e9154.png then at the end of the run still has above average heights signal over Greenland but with a signal for the NW > SE angled lows (sliders)  naefsnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.6c19ab7b8d72d491e4798536bd392873.png I still believe that any one of these will have the potential to be big snow makers with the correct depth and amount of colder air in the mix , watch this space.

ensembles GEM 12z

gens-1-1-216.thumb.png.2faf41aac7382b896cb377ad4ea6c9c2.pnggens-1-1-228.thumb.png.940e02e58105ee9aa98c8d88f660aabe.pnggens-1-1-300.thumb.png.42fbbd663ec59e9d42464be66cfa9210.pnggens-2-1-204.thumb.png.4db5746b8a30ec9edabbb3bdd6d39b67.pnggensnh-3-1-384.thumb.png.6f24106f0aefebd1be3290a5a887340f.pnggens-4-1-348.thumb.png.d027ce83b7578f3b30080776d8a9f575.png      

gens-11-1-240.thumb.png.63321c574fc5b329c019adfd56731d30.pnggens-11-1-288.thumb.png.875af4d454ea88141ee0d4be43433172.pnggensnh-12-1-372.thumb.png.2944cecfe5074e8c782bbfd84a6561c9.pnggensnh-20-1-228.thumb.png.ffbf334bbd8dd4230ca0ebf7d7c6791d.pnggensnh-20-1-384.thumb.png.fa53bca7dafba829d2af90d4dfcba378.png    

ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 12z

gens-9-1-252.thumb.png.6b2fc0b62051555c5564bd785c7d20e8.pnggens-11-1-384.thumb.png.a6f1facf4dd485c303ea7360a991f9bd.pnggens-14-1-216.thumb.png.30ffef4d56604bd1c58341b82091aaad.pnggens-14-1-384.thumb.png.9e1350b43e4c7a5b1b1ec0d068850db5.pnggens-15-1-252.thumb.png.c0dd887932f0a20ebf771c6f93e8c655.pnggens-4-3-360.thumb.png.b1b9a881585d309ae6de4f5bb528fccc.png       

gens-5-3-324.thumb.png.573c321d4b1544e79b85e677da6630e4.pnggens-8-3-324.thumb.png.214dde8085f04347396d7886c96565b0.pnggens-9-3-192.thumb.png.689fe1a856d8f1541352876e1c18410b.pnggens-11-3-372.thumb.png.e9b6058b4616f41de1ab702dba5b41a7.pnggens-13-3-312.thumb.png.bf54ca662d75a4c1716f7794cc68ab3b.pnggens-14-3-192.thumb.png.a9188c0ab63f43eb15878ca832537d02.pnggens-14-3-384.thumb.png.8132de8efb97c66c12372f0210bbb6c7.pnggens-18-3-348.thumb.png.879591ff72ed20e627177e44dac5f450.png       

 

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

So does the ECM.🤙

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019011512_180_1642_215.png

Finally a snow depth chart thats not had Scotland chopped off of it. thank you.

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2 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Finally a snow depth chart thats not had Scotland chopped off of it. thank you.

Very snowy for our Irish friends!

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Very snowy for our Irish friends!

I saw a chart showing as much as 60cm a few days ago but, cant find it.

Maybe i imagined it!

Edited by Sparky68
added

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28 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Always intrigued why you post ensembles 250 miles away from you , here’s ones a little nearer 

 

ED573DB1-3DF4-4B4B-9CC2-2DDD020C1059.jpeg

London is always a good benchmark.

ANYWEATHER.png

ANYWEATHERX.png

Edited by mulzy

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Evening! A Quick check list for the upcoming weather...

1...Cold incoming ??     Yes!

2.... How much snow in my backyard.?.......Not Sure.!

3.....How cold will it get?   Not sure!

4.....How long will the cold last?   .......Not sure!

5......Ecm or Gfs right with detail?   ......No.!

6.......Enjoy the Rollercoster.......!

ANYWEATHER.png

ANYWEATHERX.png

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3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! A Quick check list for the upcoming weather...

1...Cold incoming ??     Yes!

2.... How much snow in my backyard.?.......Not Sure.!

3.....How cold will it get?   Not sure!

4.....How long will the cold last?   .......Not sure!

5......Ecm or Gfs right with detail?   ......No.!

6.......Enjoy the Rollercoster.......!

ANYWEATHER.png

ANYWEATHERX.png

Sums up the situation nicely.

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A look at the mean heights day 16 ....geps, gefs, eps

8C946586-9047-4B58-8838-E47E07C5B73D.thumb.jpeg.361aeb3a01804021cd5eb950b5bbdd4d.jpeg  C0111AF4-69CE-4F56-9D8C-4A2E5096981F.thumb.jpeg.b9a92281a2944a7ac72c6d90a01b0e35.jpeg  CDA9A14C-4A5A-43E7-9A79-51A4DCDDC553.thumb.jpeg.7053b400a0046976f5e43a97354ddff1.jpeg

 

should keep the interest going ......

incidentally @catcol, you may need to revisit your strat charts in the morning .....they will be rather different than they have been - both ec runs consistent today ........

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2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Colder uppers further west on ICON 18z vs 12z with precipitation in the same place

image.png

image.png

Better then nothing I suppose might make a bit of difference for some lucky people ;)

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Icon further west again between 72 and 90 hours!!

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Just a quick post about the 12z swingometers from me.

Not really helpful TBH, the runs are generally col for the 25th but they are sluggish to bring in some decent blocking as per the ECM, many of the runs are better at the end of January though.

image.thumb.png.f54c0b717f2ba49913c7e13c0b9dd4e1.png

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A good solid cold set of ENS for SW Holland

image.thumb.png.bdf583b12ec0c5bb458e58ff515c9180.png

😊

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29 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Finally a snow depth chart thats not had Scotland chopped off of it. thank you.

But a chart that gives Barcelona more snow than London... funny old game...

Finally time to get excited about model output after pulling teeth since Dec 1st.

This is OK, bit wobbly but OK. Wobbly as in the spread could just hang onto the wrong side of snow conducive but, again, OK.

graphe_ens3 (1).png

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31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very snowy for our Irish friends!

Yes fingers crossed I wonder what the pub run will show. Looking forward to the next few days of model watching hopefully everyone gets to see some white stuff. 

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30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very snowy for our Irish friends!

Very , from Dublin myself hoping for some white bliss . We wore so lucky with lasts beast at we wore in the right direction for the Irish Sea to produce streamers. Quality stuff, keep up the great work

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