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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

Moving on to the ECM ensemble mean, does it follow the op - it did spectacularly yesterday afternoon, looking very good at just T168:

image.thumb.jpg.84193faa999921c74b86adc1061af630.jpg

BOOM!

That i'll do me not much going further out. May actually see a winter snow flake then.

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14 minutes ago, The PIT said:

 Local forecast says not. It normally plays catch up though but to me says Friday still isn't set in stone. Fax has everything further south.

 

met office local forecast.jpg

20190114.2250.PPVM89.png

The chart I posted is accumulations on Saturday, ECM goes for a different track with the low pivoting as reflected in the Meto 5 day.

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...would think/suggest this evening gfs 18z suite sobers up...

And starts-further movement in line 👍

EDM1-240.gif

EEM1-240.gif

Edited by tight isobar

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It isn't quite as good as the March one, but you won't need quite as good uppers so who knows, i doubt it would be as good as either of the March ones for the North as the 500mb heights are a bit high, but further South it might still be very good.

Thanks for taking the time to explain, appreciated.

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The cold end to ECM is just beyond the spread on tonight's ens mean peaks around -7

london_ecmsd850.thumb.png.7f538714aa881fcf0f82b2b7b38f92b8.png

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8 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

The chart I posted is accumulations on Saturday, ECM goes for a different track with the low pivoting as reflected in the Meto 5 day.

Latest fax for friday doesnt push the front east nut but more north with the low pressure!!gota keep an eye on it as there could be a bit more interest to it than forecast!!

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The cold end to ECM is just beyond the spread on tonight's ens mean peaks around -7

london_ecmsd850.thumb.png.7f538714aa881fcf0f82b2b7b38f92b8.png

Miniscule..

And the fall in likely....as again we continue gain!!!

Edit..

I think we know where-we are headed here. (Overall)

Edited by tight isobar

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12 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

The chart I posted is accumulations on Saturday, ECM goes for a different track with the low pivoting as reflected in the Meto 5 day.

Well the date was chopped off so how would I know. Anyways Saturday for us only has light snow for an hour then dry so despite being up to date from the met it does indicate a level of uncertainty.

The Beeb has several hours of sleet instead.

Just need to find another forecast that has sunshine then we have a full house. I guess the details will firm up by Thursday.

Edited by The PIT

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1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Not sure. The one in March remember had significantly more solar strength, and reducing the snow depth potential. Plus, the sea wasn’t as warm, which put a hinder on the snow machine effect. Despite lower uppers. Conversion rates over the sea relatively speaking would give similar results if the ECM was to come off. 

That is the Stella run that we’ve been long awaiting this winter.

Dont forget we had inland convection, you might do alright from this one, all acedemic anyway as even if the Easterly verifies, there is no way the 500 - 850 profile or surface pressure will be exactly the same at 200 hours anyway, if anything we should be willing the amplification into Greenland at the same time to gain an even higher lattitude, that will help pull in cold uppers for longer.

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The 5-10 EPS mean anomaly reflects the det run and then a backtracking of the amplification

5-10.thumb.png.8e0037c998c70d2645a3402f16cde2db.png8-13.thumb.png.eef2c530dffed7dee26673b97686b290.png

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13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The cold end to ECM is just beyond the spread on tonight's ens mean peaks around -7

london_ecmsd850.thumb.png.7f538714aa881fcf0f82b2b7b38f92b8.png

Can never find that chart on TWO could you post the link,please,getting towards the minus 20 hpa now lol,their were some frigid ensemble runs yesterday evening.

Edited by SLEETY

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Its perfection in terms off north sea temps/tight reflective isobars 😊..

And upper/lower sync-..

@convective lake like effect.

Absolutely PRIMMED-if the ecm..ooz/12z are on or near the dollar..

There should maybe-be a contingency plan..flagged for be-known areas..

Thats no- ramp-nor hype..that actual...based on the given!!!

Expecting a similar outcome ?

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Just now, Sparky68 said:

Expecting a similar outcome ?

Me ???? 

Yes!!!

 

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10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Its perfection in terms off north sea temps/tight reflective isobars 😊..

And upper/lower sync-..

@convective lake like effect.

Absolutely PRIMMED-if the ecm..ooz/12z are on or near the dollar..

There should maybe-be a contingency plan..flagged for be-known areas..

Thats no- ramp-nor hype..that actual...based on the given!!!

The colder the models the more sense your posts make,tight

only joking love your posts  mate

inject a sense of, its only weather when things look bad.

long may they continue 

 

 

Edited by snowbob

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12 minutes ago, knocker said:

The 5-10 EPS mean anomaly reflects the det run and then a backtracking of the amplification

5-10.thumb.png.8e0037c998c70d2645a3402f16cde2db.png8-13.thumb.png.eef2c530dffed7dee26673b97686b290.png

All round decent..

Although the form of BACKTRAKING AMP..

Will do wonders for some...and indeed not others!!.

All a tad speculative @this point.

But the overall shouts are of exception!!!

Edited by tight isobar

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Not a bad mean chart for D8

image.thumb.png.7cf3840778900009550e4d407e03bd86.png

The amount of energy in the northern arm of the jet has been steadily reduced. Only a dramatic & unlikely, reversal of that trend would break the build of upper heights behind the surge of energy south next week.

👍

Edited by Purga

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10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Its perfection in terms off north sea temps/tight reflective isobars 😊..

And upper/lower sync-..

@convective lake like effect.

Absolutely PRIMMED-if the ecm..ooz/12z are on or near the dollar..

There should maybe-be a contingency plan..flagged for be-known areas..

Thats no- ramp-nor hype..thats actual...based on the given!!!

That is a ramp!! 

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37 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Moving on to the ECM ensemble mean, does it follow the op - it did spectacularly yesterday afternoon, looking very good at just T168:

image.thumb.jpg.84193faa999921c74b86adc1061af630.jpg

BOOM!

What I really like about the ECM mean, is the absolute teasing suggestion of cross polar heights taking hold. It's tangible.

 

Need to keep the general pattern for a few more days yet before you can start telling people about this. The general consensus beginning to forge in the various NWP is most encouraging. But keep your powder dry, we've been here before. T-96 is the cut off point for confidence to peak!

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