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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM snow depth....

75EE3B09-B548-45E5-96E3-C872FD5E12C5.jpeg

That would be from the 144 weather front ,not to mention lake effect that would follow on from 240ECM.

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2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

If this chart came off I wonder if that warm sector would get mixed out.

 

ECM0-240.GIF

Yeah the people of the Shetland isles will not be happy 

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17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent EC for southern Britain(esp the SE)- i would imagine there will be sheer joy as curtains are opened to a winter wonderland @192

image.thumb.png.933d7e291262a4e4fd0a142ecc04aa68.png

one for the shovel..

216

image.thumb.png.4d1be7b27dd88ed78ad2d4ba9a50aebb.png

One for the snow plough..

Is it likely to verify? 

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2 hours ago, Cheese Rice said:

Potentially quite a significant snow event over Yorkshire if the GFS is to believed with the front stalling, snow more likely to high ground 

When?! You haven't stated a timescale or posted a chart :)

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A fair chunk of that snow in the south comes from a disturbance that runs WSW towards the channel.

If you look at p.7, that may give a hint on where the ECM is going past 240hrs.

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Just now, snowfish1 said:

Is it likely to verify? 

100% as with all fi charts, seriously I’d say the trend is right but you can’t say for sure, that many easterlys have gone wrong right down to the wire but there’s a good chance of some form of easterly I’d say but it’s still like a week away

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1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

When?! You haven't stated a timescale or posted a chart 🙂

Friday

ECM also going for significant accumulations 

 

1545035150_ecmsnow.thumb.png.ec4fcc037ab60d616b2a5bce25777bb0.png

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1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Roll on 4 days, and if seems that we are seeing just this. I think that we have seen that the ECM has the tendency in the past to overplay amplification and blocking scenarios........but, and a big but, when we have downwelling strat events the ECM picks these up a little better because of the better strat resolution. Now we may not see a classic evolution as seen in this latest run, but my feelings are that we will see a block to our north somewhere in a similar position. No need to comment on every run, but imo we see the trend increasing as expected, and I suspect that most of us will witness a significant snow event before the end of winter and most likely before the end of the month. And with a locked in omega type block, that snow isn’t going to disappear quickly......

Do I take it then this 'slider' show will be via the back door? 😲

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Working... 

Nice ECM

Let's hope UKMO improves in the morning at day 6.

For a noob , being as this seems so favourable for a cold snap/snow event, is there anything in recent years that had similar charts and led to a good outcome for cold lovers?

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2 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

 

For a noob , being as this seems so favourable for a cold snap/snow event, is there anything in recent years that had similar charts and led to a good outcome for cold lovers?

Last March

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3 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

 

For a noob , being as this seems so favourable for a cold snap/snow event, is there anything in recent years that had similar charts and led to a good outcome for cold lovers?

Are you talking about the slider or the Easterly?

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10 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Friday

ECM also going for significant accumulations 

 

1545035150_ecmsnow.thumb.png.ec4fcc037ab60d616b2a5bce25777bb0.png

Local forecast says not. It normally plays catch up though but to me says Friday still isn't set in stone. Fax has everything further south.

 

met office local forecast.jpg

20190114.2250.PPVM89.png

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A super ECM tonight ! Also seems now there quite the fair high expectations now but let's get the others models to support the ECM before and if we get disappointed 

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Are you talking about the slider or the Easterly?

The Easterly

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1 minute ago, Sparky68 said:

The Easterly

It isn't quite as good as the March one, but you won't need quite as good uppers so who knows, i doubt it would be as good as either of the March ones for the North as the 500mb heights are a bit high, but further South it might still be very good.

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I think the high would continue poleward though fairly quickly, bringing the North into It. 

Edited by BlackburnChris

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It isn't quite as good as the March one, but you won't need quite as good uppers so who knows, i doubt it would be as good as either of the March ones for the North as the 500mb heights are a bit high, but further South it might still be very good.

Late Jan is a pretty good time to be getting a decent easterly..

There is an upper cold pool on EC with low thicknesses, that added to north sea is a recipe for snow storms.. 🙂

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6 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

ECH1-192-1.thumb.gif.9dda63553f92efd36c4dce3935676ce0.gif

tenor-1.thumb.gif.0e15b562cdc0bde49ff49b77de963f80.gif

Yeah, that's quite actual explaninig of the current situation, watching from Germany....

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Unfortunately I can't wait for the ECM ensembles tonight, am running late for a game of darts up the pub because of this evenings weather porn charts so I'm off. After all this time of watching and waiting with all the excellent input that we have on here, and in spite of the building blocks all being there, its still a bit of a shock to see such fantastic charts turn up, and very much in the mid term as opposed to the far reaches of FI.

Remember ECM is best in the T144-T192 period, and what it shows looks very plausible and is backed up by other models. I promise I wont mention a word of this up the pub though, but I might drop a few big hints.😅

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Moving on to the ECM ensemble mean, does it follow the op - it did spectacularly yesterday afternoon, looking very good at just T168:

image.thumb.jpg.84193faa999921c74b86adc1061af630.jpg

BOOM!

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Late Jan is a pretty good time to be getting a decent easterly..

There is an upper cold pool on EC with low thicknesses, that added to north sea is a recipe for snow storms.. 🙂

It is good i admit, but we are right on the border - the Northern limit of any dumpings, see how the deep blues don't last as long on the 500mb chart, but its good for January, because for a long time, i cant think of many Easterlies in January, its been such an Easterly free month for a long time now.

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