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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Supprised to see the snow depth forecast from the Euro4 for Thursday afternoon! Surely this is overdone ?

54A2CA59-C848-47F9-A205-0C3DA062C4A1.jpeg

Bournemouth area looks accurate 😩😩

Yes those charts do tend to over do the totals.

Edited by That ECM

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D9C942D3-698C-43B1-B0E8-1EAD0241FDF8.thumb.png.c2ed95ffb9fa0d433dac262fafc0ef61.png

Looks good to me. 

Sharper trough. 

Good wedge of heights to disrupt the trough. 

Azores High not as flat as UKMO

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EC looking locked and loaded at 144 🙂

Hopefully we get a stonking 168..

 

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ECM falls in line with the GFS in bringing a shallow low south eastward into the UK so it could one nil for the GFS here. UKMO fax sends the same low much further south so it only really troubles the south west of the uK. A so slight possible snow event maybe on after all. Question what happens next?

Interesting an early forecast I watched on the beeb made no mention of Friday which says uncertainty all around.

Edited by The PIT

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OK, let's stop with the one liners and the nonsense posts, please?

If you're having a moan, go and do it in the appropriate thread, as it'll swiftly go missing in here.

Thank you!

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

From reading the comments on here, things are apparently looking less wintry and it looks like high pressure will be centred closer to us that had been thought....

.....based off the op run of a soon to be discontinued model with lower verification stats than that of the other main models, and against its own ensembles.

So much utter rubbish gets posted in this place. 

Not that I believe GFS is right but the old (soon to be discontinued) GFS was great for cold and snow this evening, it is the new GFSp that shows boring high pressure for 10 days. The fact it’s consistent with its earlier run is what’s concerning me and makes me think it can’t be dismissed. Imo the route to cold is clear but widespread disruptive snow isn’t 

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

NE US pain is our gain 🍻 

90DF8BF7-F166-438E-9D2D-25E2CFF92D0A.thumb.png.1ec221da390c26126996786f241da3a5.png

Yep..that monster seaboard trough..screams shoot me up scottie...via atlantic waa..

@point base greenland!!

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Looks like the door south of Greenland has been slammed firmly shut, nice angle of the low north east USA....should be good from here on in .

ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

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ECM consistent so far

image.thumb.png.8b799a7964d8c0a0ddc86e5c36f38383.pngimage.thumb.png.3004e9f7014a7b86608aa13d359bff06.pngimage.thumb.png.0d6ca12d5d49561e13e12a2618a44d39.png

👍

Edited by Purga

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Boom shake the room

EAE23843-2F43-4967-9352-19933517A12D.thumb.png.58ab2bb02f82c9c38c8f17735a6e5b90.png

Steve what chart is this from. Please 

 

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T168 GFS and ECM not much different although ecm being more aggressive in sliding the low south eastward.

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maybe not as negatively tilted off the esb ….. the next frame dictates the atlantic ridge shape days 9/10 

EDIT: looks fine

Edited by bluearmy

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Boom shake the room

EAE23843-2F43-4967-9352-19933517A12D.thumb.png.58ab2bb02f82c9c38c8f17735a6e5b90.png

FA132C7A-ACF1-4D45-97D2-2273DEB1EF9B.thumb.png.0a734546708b944af57dfbdd7ec96dd7.png

What do you make of the uppers? 

Looks a colder chart than -3 / -4

Edited by Spah1

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Just now, snowfish1 said:

Steve what chart is this from. Please 

 

T168 ecm 12z

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Snow moving from west to east on that front nothing marginal here -4 -5 uppers drawing a continental feed ahead of the front very nice indeed 👍

90BD54FF-400A-4E68-89AC-9BE2BD6EA009.png

Edited by Pembroke Dangler

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anyway moving on I really like the look of this....

46F0A233-85B9-4606-9040-4F2C4BF1B20A.png

90BD54FF-400A-4E68-89AC-9BE2BD6EA009.png

Edited by Mapantz
Yes, moving along..

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Just now, Spah1 said:

FA132C7A-ACF1-4D45-97D2-2273DEB1EF9B.thumb.png.0a734546708b944af57dfbdd7ec96dd7.png

What do you make of the uppers? 

Looks a colder chart than -2 /-3. 

Thats enough for snow - look at the tilt on the trough.

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gfs been terrible,it had us in a zonal north westerly last few days  which was looking good for the ski industry after the weekend,now  it’s looking like we are going to get an easterly if ecm is correct,so it’s miles out.

Edited by SLEETY

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