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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just the overall evolution in terms of working 'towards' a long term better match to the ECM- IE diving trough way out west

although not enough disruption yet...

I guess I'm just not used to you being so generous to GFS output ?

Yeah I can see it has moved somewhat toward ECM but a long way to go, even in hi res.

It would be ironic if the time I am really dismissive of GFS it turned out to be correct.

This evenings ECM is going to be well anticipated.

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23 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Are you talking about the split energy at 168 Steve or upstream in FI?

It seems quite different both earlier and later which forces the pattern much further SE

gfsnh-0-228.png?12ECH1-240.GIF

What's the betting that the METs 25% chance of an Easterly increases if ECM sticks to its guns as well as the GFS moving towards that.

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1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

Just to illustrate how hard it is to get an ice day in london, even at 384 on the 12z with uppers of -12, the max is still at 1C in central london

Too much hot air from the mps no doubt lol - gfsp has that slider sort of "stalling" over Wales on Friday - could give a few places a little snow - let's see how well it performs being the new kid on the block

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7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Thats a v-large %adge..

In terms of that evo!!!

@easterly infer...

5 x the usual % for January

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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Thats a v-large %adge..

In terms of that evo!!!

@easterly infer...

Worth noting the 25% was specifically about the single EC Det run, so 25% is actually rather high given that.

GFS finally FINALLY disrupting the low like the other models have been doing for days now and it's sharpened up on sinking the trough through the UK into Europe. You wouldn't believe this model was top 3 in the world given the last week of absolute shamble performances. 

Outer reaches of GFS 12z similar to this mornings extended EPS mean which is interesting, the Scandi height bit in-between that though is a strange evolution.

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh my :air_kiss:

9F2F975C-0DBE-40F5-BEDF-822A003BAC13.thumb.png.b7b6c41585edceedba4a8d131d89c790.png

Im not going to bore any1 on former posts..banging on about this exaction..via height injection...as per both sectors!!..

@pac ridge @greeny push..

=massive block =split/partialy-or otherwise  vortex!

Not happened yet but im certain it will...

Edited by tight isobar
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4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

What's the betting that the METs 25% chance of an Easterly increases if ECM sticks to its guns as well as the GFS moving towards that.

Pretty good.

Though I think just looking for an Easterly could be slightly misleading to any chances of earlier cold prospects.

The main thing is that all the models are seeing trough disruption between days 5 and 8, the extent of that will dictate how strong any height rises (ridge) to our E is and where and how strong that ridge is relative to it being able to influence our weather on the ground.

It may be enough to just hold enough cold air in place without a distinctive E flow.

Bigger picture - it gives much better prospects for HLB in FI.

Getting interesting beyond the cool/cold zonal flow we have seen being modelled in previous days.

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13 minutes ago, Tristrame said:

It has the deputy chief of forecasting saying there's only a 25% chance the ECM is right

Didn’t say those words on that video?

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How many times have major events almost come out of nowhere?  That has been my experience. 

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13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh my :air_kiss:

9F2F975C-0DBE-40F5-BEDF-822A003BAC13.thumb.png.b7b6c41585edceedba4a8d131d89c790.png

Yer lovely end to the gfs . Here’s the uppers to go with your chart ?

EC7836AB-4900-44DC-AD74-F02F9669470A.png

EF3D872F-EFCD-4DE9-A35C-713C0F79E41F.png

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Just now, Snipper said:

How many times have major events almost come out of nowhere?  That has been my experience. 

On the flip side - how many times have almost - certain to happen major events vanished without trace?

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1 minute ago, Snipper said:

How many times have major events almost come out of nowhere?  That has been my experience. 

How many times have "major events" (yet to happen but modelled) have disappeared though when the actual time comes?

I can think of a few.

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Ladies.... UKMO FAX +144 12z

*edit* sorry posted +24 by mistake, here's the +120, cant find the 144 for some reason.

 

120.gif

Edited by Skyraker
I'm a bellend
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Just now, Bristle boy said:

How many times have "major events" (yet to happen but modelled) have disappeared though when the actual time comes?

I can think of a few.

More!

you’re becoming as pessimistic as Fred was last week BB ....  cheer up ... you could be in the battle zone over the next few weeks !!

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Just now, Skyraker said:

Ladies.... UKMO FAX +144 12z

15-01-19-144.gif

Very confused 

there isn’t a day 6 fax issued

this is today isn’t it ??

 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Very confused 

there isn’t a day 6 fax issued

this is today isn’t it ??

 

thats todays yes

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Very confused 

there isn’t a day 6 fax issued

this is today isn’t it ??

 

Don't like the look of it whatever it is..

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Well if the ECM can keep some consistency with its 00z run later on then it will have been a good day's model watching. From a cold an snow point of view.

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Well if the ECM can keep some consistency with its 00z run later on then it will have been a good day's model watching. From a cold an snow point of view.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

More!

you’re becoming as pessimistic as Fred was last week BB ....  cheer up ... you could be in the battle zone over the next few weeks !!

Doubt it BA....unless there's a coup d'etat in Mexico. In Riviera Maya from Feb 1st for 11 days.?

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GFSp a little disappointing in terms of trough disruption out to the midterm compared to previous run and ECM.

gfsnh-0-168.png?12

Will ECM stick to its guns given the UKMO output?

Although I don't think UKMO is such a bad run even though it doesn't show good disruption like ECM since it may well have disruption next frame (168) and height rises to our E/NE

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9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, we've gone from yesterday's laughable ECM sinking superstorm to today's GFS's FI phantom northerly, just like it's shown a dozen times since November...

image.thumb.png.46e12b8b7be2d998316fbdaa202eba04.png

Why waste time analysing and re-analysing Day 10+ charts, that'll never come off, anyway??

 

Funny that, someone said something similar on the other side, using the analogy of waiting for blood test results to come back that you know have been spoilt/tampered with. Day 10, it's been day 10 since the end of November! ?

I'm not championing any model's cause that far out - including the picked on kid in the playground that is the GFS!

So we are not really any the wiser, apart from it looking to become colder, with the possibility of some wet snow over higher ground especially in the north. Stick to the <5 day fax charts for now, as still far too much inconsistency further up the track.

Still can't see that train...

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