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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Meanwhile as we decipher how much we are going to shiver...

Spare a thought 4 those down under..

@scorchio..50c...

😲😲

gfs-ens_T2ma_aus_3 (1).png

gfs-ens_z500a_aus_3.png

This is more than scorcio, it is deadly! The Australian climate is becoming more and more extreme!

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Just now, karyo said:

This is more than scorcio, it is deadly! The Australian climate is becoming more and more extreme!

Its always been extreme you just hear about it more today

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A huge array of solutions on the EC Clusters but they do show some support for blocking to the North or North-West of the UK. Certainly very little support for "mild" weather. Huge uncertainty, but most roads lead to cold.. though not "severe" cold just yet

240.thumb.png.9b1fd4d70d2de42d4b49b447da2c8ff2.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011500_324.thumb.png.4b6133b95d14e520e9f8e562dadaaa6e.png

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Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!😨

image.thumb.png.877449ac0d11bee2af44369e3b996491.png

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GFS back to the setup we have seen for much of the last 3 weeks. It's probably not that unlikely IF the upper pattern over the Arctic do give us a +very AO

Upper ridging does try but vortex is far too strong on the 06z, so we end up back in an upper high again over our shores. Closer to the ECM but still far apart.

 

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6 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Its always been extreme you just hear about it more today

It’s certainly much drier , the normal rains have not filtered inland so rain totals are about 10% in some parts ! I have no idea how many more years communities can rely upon bore water with so little rains . 

 

Im sure the cattle farmers are going to be hit big style ! 

CEA033A4-6BF1-46A1-9154-1DF02710F794.png

Edited by snowy owl

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@Man With Beard days 5 thru 7.5 on the eps clusters cannot get the options to six or below ..... clearly there is much entropy as to how we arrrive at the euro trough ...

going to be a difficult few days given how high the potential rewards are for many on here ..... trend for higher heights to have a big say as we move beyond the sinking trough ..... could be v good but then could be a bit disappointing for a few aswell ......

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Have a feeling the GEFS are gonna be a lot better after the 6z op run was an improvement . 

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23 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Expect GFS will continue moving towards the more amplified solution but ECM will back track a bit until they meet in the middle. Still great for cold and snow prospects 

Yeah, agree with this. The ridging at T168-T192 on the ECM just looks a bit too aggressive and sharp. Also seems a bit early in the context of the EC46 anomalies posted yesterday? 

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I could only find one GEFS supporting the ECM T120 chart of sliding low #2:

ECM1-120.thumb.gif.35b452cbbeca557c0af4db16e8d2341c.gifgens-15-1-126.thumb.png.dc05ff0f5e1b8d41c35e098f95536d10.png

The rest doggedly keep to the op and mean take of a flatter phase rather than the NW to SE ECM take at that point.

But by T168 we can see the GEFS becoming more amplified and enabling the Euro trough to establish better than the 0z run. Again multiple routes to that pattern so the UK still in the dark as to cold/snow past D5!

gens_panel_jll8.png An example the Control at T192: gens-0-1-192.thumb.png.6d9258655d0feb3af28ec045ecebb483.png

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

I could only find one GEFS supporting the ECM T120 chart of sliding low #2:

ECM1-120.thumb.gif.35b452cbbeca557c0af4db16e8d2341c.gifgens-15-1-126.thumb.png.dc05ff0f5e1b8d41c35e098f95536d10.png

The rest doggedly keep to the op and mean take of a flatter phase rather than the NW to SE ECM take at that point.

But by T168 we can see the GEFS becoming more amplified and enabling the Euro trough to establish better than the 0z run. Again multiple routes to that pattern so the UK still in the dark as to cold/snow past D5!

gens_panel_jll8.png An example the Control at T192: gens-0-1-192.thumb.png.6d9258655d0feb3af28ec045ecebb483.png

Gfs para further west with slider and south!!!joining the euros!!think the shamefull climb down of the gfs will be complete by the end of tonight!!

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GEFS day 8 mean

gensnh-21-1-192.png

 

Slowly but surely it is smelling the coffee!

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Jesus!!!!!guys take a look at the para at 180 hours!!!!massive upgrade and looks more like this mornings icon and better than ecm!!!wiked stuff!!

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22 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

A huge array of solutions on the EC Clusters but they do show some support for blocking to the North or North-West of the UK. Certainly very little support for "mild" weather. Huge uncertainty, but most roads lead to cold.. though not "severe" cold just yet

240.thumb.png.9b1fd4d70d2de42d4b49b447da2c8ff2.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011500_324.thumb.png.4b6133b95d14e520e9f8e562dadaaa6e.png

Agree with this, except that I think some "severe cold" options are showing their heads on the ensembles - ice days are now within the 10% to 90% "spread" of options for London between 26th and 28th January, with outlier runs only giving maximums of minus 3C or minus 4C. Though of course the mean scenario is to keep temps just above freezing.

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wow parra identical to 6zgfs???????

Edited by swfc

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00z EPS T2m average for London keeping well under +5C, the deterministic close to the average, some tight clustering below the average and a wayward member or two going toward -10C temp one morning, NCEP GFS keeping on the milder periphery of the spread, outlier at times. Not a bad graph for the route ahead!

 

7DEAF435-49F6-4F75-9376-06246025F889.gif

Edited by Nick F

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37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!😨

image.thumb.png.877449ac0d11bee2af44369e3b996491.png

Just as I said in an earlier post today, the default position of the GFS,blow up the Azores High.

It often plays this game in the summer and promises a heatwave of course.

Not sure I could stand a return as flagged here of a continuation of the weather dross of the last month!

Edited by sunnijim

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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Agree with this, except that I think some "severe cold" options are showing their heads on the ensembles - ice days are now within the 10% to 90% "spread" of options for London between 26th and 28th January, with outlier runs only giving maximums of minus 3C or minus 4C. Though of course the mean scenario is to keep temps just above freezing.

Ah of course - By "severe cold" I was meaning BFTE type prolonged cold, the EPS certainly do have some deeper cold options within them though remain a lower probability, at least for now. Certainly improving.

GFS Para picking up on the sinking trough into Europe now, GFS still lagging behind..

PARA.thumb.png.534e80030d063d7efcb68e183b5cf03c.png

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4 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

GEFS undergoing major correction towards EPS in the day 8 / 9 range in the NE Atlantic, and that substantively opening the door for Greenland height rises days 12+

Again gfs suite has been dragging like mad..

But the corrections pulling tight..

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34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!😨

image.thumb.png.877449ac0d11bee2af44369e3b996491.png

Seriously? It's 324 hours away - and with everything you have read about GFS, volatile output etc etc etc, is there a need to worry??

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GEFS definitely a step towards the Euros on the 6z with blocking targeting Greenland

GEFS.thumb.png.a8929cfc37bc810a70bc7152dcd3a24c.png

Now if we could see some consistency in the modelling for a couple of runs we might get a clearer picture..

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1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Seriously? It's 324 hours away - and with everything you have read about GFS, volatile output etc etc etc, is there a need to worry??

I know that, just as all the other posters of FI charts know it?👍

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