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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Icon brings some PPN in land

 icon-2-90.png?15-06

 

Would be a sleety mix on low levels but anywhere 200m+ Midlands north would see snow I'd imagine. Would still be a mess. 

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8 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Wowsers, GEFS and EPS couldn't be more different in the North Atlantic through day 10. Some crunching of gears coming up for one or both of them soon.

Tempting to identify downwelling -U wind anomaly signal as the culprit here.

Hi Stuart

Did I read that the current forecast downwelling didn't occur so far down last Feb?

Like you say this could lead to new issues for certain models

Edited by winterof79

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ECM a bit different to last night but its still following its 46 day model broadly. Have to favour the model that agrees with its long range charts.

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Quite remarkable really to see the difference between the GEFS and EPS, been said many times before I know but I really don’t think I’ve ever seen such a stark difference in ensemble suites, there’s pretty much absolutely nothing like the ECM At day 7/8 in the GFS.

You’d back the ECM all day on this one, want to see the UKM back it up strongly on the 12z though to feel more confident about it

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The UKMO hasn't changed that much since its run yesterday pm and its difficult to see where that will lead as the key period is post 144hr. The ECM certainly isn't without support - look at the GEM op and many of it's ensemble members as well as the JMA. The ECM mean is also rock solid. You'd have to assume the higher resolution models have a better handle on this and you'd be a brave person to bet against the ECM suite. 

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Just now, Weathizard said:

Quite remarkable really to see the difference between the GEFS and EPS, been said many times before I know but I really don’t think I’ve ever seen such a stark difference in ensemble suites, there’s pretty much absolutely nothing like the ECM At day 7/8 in the GFS.

You’d back the ECM all day on this one, want to see the UKM back it up strongly on the 12z though to feel more confident about it

EC is absolute king of the models at 168h though but sometimes even the king is wrong. I hope not this time

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The ecm has shown a different outcome at 216hrs for every run. A lot of them showing cold solutions but completely different routes in getting there. I don't see how that tells us to have complete confidence in it being right this morning. You would imagine at least one model would support it. Not saying it's wron just maybe caution is advised until models converge on the way forward 

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Purely for fun  Icon 6z  slidergate!

 

iconeu_uk1-1-90-0.png

iconeu_uk1-1-93-0.png

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The GFS reminding us of New year resolutions to change this or that and looking at a myriad of amazing solutions to the uninspiring drudgery, only for the back end of January to see the 'safe' option settled on again, the bloated Azores High taking more than a passing interest in our shores.

The six pack and a clear path to early retirement has to be for others to prove possible first before jumping on board properly, I doff my cap toward you ECM and UKMO.

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1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

The ecm has shown a different outcome at 216hrs for every run. A lot of them showing cold solutions but completely different routes in getting there. I don't see how that tells us to have complete confidence in it being right this morning. You would imagine at least one model would support it. Not saying it's wron just maybe caution is advised until models converge on the way forward 

But you can take confidence in 216hr you just answered it yourself the majority led to cold solutions we are going cold baby.❄️🤙

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How likely is this, looks like there could be a decent dump in North England.

E06783A3-596A-4B62-B1C9-385EC9C6C9B4.png

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

How likely is this, looks like there could be a decent dump in North England.

E06783A3-596A-4B62-B1C9-385EC9C6C9B4.png

Not very likely because that’s a GFS chart lol 😂

Edited by ICE COLD
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One would have to favour the ECM solution over that from the GFS, for two reasons: firstly, the ECM is currently performing better; and secondly, it's the one that suggests the greater potential for snow...?

There is of course a third option: that none of the models has it right, that they are all having trouble modelling the downwelling...

Only time will tell...🤔

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15 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The ecm has shown a different outcome at 216hrs for every run. A lot of them showing cold solutions but completely different routes in getting there. I don't see how that tells us to have complete confidence in it being right this morning. You would imagine at least one model would support it. Not saying it's wron just maybe caution is advised until models converge on the way forward 

gens-0-1-240.png

 

Gem ensemble which supposedly is one of the better models for the Atlantic sector has a few similar solutions, eg control run

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26 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The ecm has shown a different outcome at 216hrs for every run. A lot of them showing cold solutions but completely different routes in getting there. I don't see how that tells us to have complete confidence in it being right this morning. You would imagine at least one model would support it. Not saying it's wron just maybe caution is advised until models converge on the way forward 

It's just in that envelope right now, we're admist a pattern change and a big one at that so just about all options are on the table.

It's going to be a very interesting model period and I would say that no model currently knows what will happen at D10 so it's best to just observe and watch the ensembles as they probably hold the key however even they disagree entirely with each other so it doesn't help that much!

Edited by Snowman.

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ECM ensembles now updated to D13; at this time, 30 members clearly cold enough for snow for most, 11 clearly not cold enough, 10 borderline. Still heavily in the cold camp. (All in my opinion 🙂 )

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Gfs slowly slowly...sniffing it out..

And lets remind ourselves...

Its supporting datas have been throwing out ec-like evos 4 some time now !!!

gfsnh-0-90 (1).png

Edited by tight isobar
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GFS P doesn't have much in the way of deep cold air this morning

gfs-0-120.thumb.png.b3865ddb78497a63b5a892a0883a4b71.pnggfs-0-168.thumb.png.e9fc3f1058e028d5a28d4afdbd948789.pnggfs-0-216.thumb.png.06b85d86ec00dc52a886326a5f2f8d86.pnggfs-0-300.thumb.png.df8c04d1b3d27b10ab665bcd3455f12f.pnggfs-0-384.thumb.png.05579dcb0b14c200d42cbf8ed6e0079d.png

gfs-1-120.thumb.png.76817f98e112e2adaacf6bb4326e2448.pnggfs-1-168.thumb.png.eff52d09384b0d1a7ece628a35a73ce4.pnggfs-1-216.thumb.png.6d2f8e5ff641b9a3f2e955973a468f66.pnggfs-1-300.thumb.png.bb4d3d6fde9440a9205c94479e6d3acc.pnggfs-1-384.thumb.png.a961d5338193b5ff58b02be1d86c543c.png

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33 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

How likely is this, looks like there could be a decent dump in North England.

E06783A3-596A-4B62-B1C9-385EC9C6C9B4.png

Probably better a few hundred miles SW 👌

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Looks like a slight move to a more ECM like solution to me? Still the profile to our north is very different though

54974069-01E6-45A3-AAE4-D3736D66CD97.png

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Just now, Weathizard said:

Looks like a slight move to a more ECM like solution to me? Still the profile to our north is very different though

54974069-01E6-45A3-AAE4-D3736D66CD97.png

Indeed gfs sniffing the ecm solution,not sure if it will make it this run amplification wise

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