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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

OMG .... do you guys really think that the NOAA people at cpc would be using gfs output in their charts if they weren’t confident about its reliability ????

Surely, its just nuts to think otherwise ........

anyway, the ec mean is supportive of the op pattern until days 9/10 when the spread becomes wide to our west and north and the NH profile begins to look like it could head in a few v different directions re tpv behaviour and where we may see blocking establishing at a decent latitude 

Have you fully read the article, do you know that for sure? Why would they make something like that up?

It's a very unusual situation over there and the huge discrepancy between the GFS and others is maybe the reason why.

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The best solution is the ECM at day 7 then just a touch flatter after that .

The reason for this is to get the low centre further east and se. You don’t want the low dropping too far west and want the direction of energy se .

If offered I’d take the ECM mean position at day 9 rather than the op.

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

OMG .... do you guys really think that the NOAA people at cpc would be using gfs output in their charts if they weren’t confident about its reliability ????

Surely, its just nuts to think otherwise ........

anyway, the ec mean is supportive of the op pattern until days 9/10 when the spread becomes wide to our west and north and the NH profile begins to look like it could head in a few v different directions re tpv behaviour and where we may see blocking establishing at a decent latitude 

Why would the Washington post fabricate a story on weather models?

Hardly a sexy topic is it? 😂

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4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Why would the Washington post fabricate a story on weather models?

Hardly a sexy topic is it? 😂

It’s called politics 

like I said, I would believe what people are actually doing with the model rather than what that are saying about it - actions speak louder etc etc 

anyway- a big change in the ec mean at day 10 reflects the mean ridge being much stronger just to our nw rather than mid Atlantic .... need to see the clusters to understand if there are two distinct camps or a general no idea on where to place the mean ridge from mid Atlantic across to scandi 

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As far as I know the input data into the model is automatic . Someone doesn’t sit there inputting observations from say aircraft and balloon data .

It used to be that some Stateside used to call the GFS GIGO. Garbage in garbage out! As some believed its issues weren’t just the model but the data that went into it. I’m dubious of that theory.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I think we need to draw the line under the whole ‘government shutdown affecting GFS’ thing, as @snowking points out, such an idea is unfounded and the Washington Post article is based on the view of one NOAA employee who is perhaps disgruntled with being on furlough. 

GFS may perhaps be in a spell of poor performance related to the trop - strat interactions as the easterly winds in the lower strat at high latitudes start to imprint on the top of the troposphere.

 

Ok Nick fair enough, let's just hope the GFS is just being GFS = wrong 😉

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EPS mean shifts the high more towards Greenland/NW of the UK rather than sitting it in the mid-Atlantic like previous runs

EPS.thumb.png.8a09a7670acec32d05a838c99769e294.png

Extended EPS much the same though more watered down re: Euro troughing, clusters will be more telling to see just how much support the EC Op has

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Find the whole "GFS isn't get data which is why it's rubbish" laughable. People werent claiming this few days ago when it started coming in to line with the other models. As soon as it goes on a different tangent then out comes the conspiracy theories to somehow justify its wrong rather than picking up on a trend that things may not be as cold and rosey as it may seem.

Not surprising an employee would come out with it when they're not getting paid. Threat to national security? Hmmm

As for incompatible data formats, yeah maybe true, but a person will not be converting the data by hand, there will be software routines doing so

 

Anyway, disappointing to still see the GFS not swing back, and even more so the UKMO taking a slight step away from cold. Hopefully not a trend? As ever though, FI is T96. No model handles cold scenarios well. Could argue ECM usually is too agressive with cold and usually waters it down nearer the time, purely based on what seen in the past

 

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12 minutes ago, smhouston said:

Find the whole "GFS isn't get data which is why it's rubbish" laughable. People werent claiming this few days ago when it started coming in to line with the other models...

 

Pray tell us which day this was.....☺

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Ext EPS broadly similar to last night though less intense heights to the north-west than what was showing last night.  Though not as good as last night, a very good ensemble mean.

Though still a risk, the position of the mean trough (over the UK rather than to the west of the UK) has been trending east which is what we want to see.

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The ECM run is so different to yesterdays 12z run later on (as you would expect) that its hard to take any one souloution to seriously (unless you have access o the Ensembles etc).

My preference is for yesterday's 12z run but the 168 chart looks like it could deliver 
ECM1-168.GIF?15-12

 

 

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It’s a confusing picture this morning! I wouldn’t like to write a 10 day forecast this morning! Can’t see much support from other models for the ECM Unfortunately.  GEM looks closer to GFS but ICON looks good...

B9EAC1F0-825A-42EE-BE1F-D5E1808DFDEB.png

800AB9A6-C7AA-4534-A6D1-B230FDFD9988.png

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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s a confusing picture this morning! I wouldn’t like to write a 10 day forecast this morning! Can’t see much support from other models for the ECM Unfortunately.  GEM looks closer to GFS but ICON looks good...

B9EAC1F0-825A-42EE-BE1F-D5E1808DFDEB.png

800AB9A6-C7AA-4534-A6D1-B230FDFD9988.png

Meeting in the middle usually applies in these situations.

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As I mentioned a few days ago the lack of proper heights to our North meant caution was needed. And so it appears to be the case as the models are all over the place and none show proper heights to our North (Inc ecm)

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1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

As I mentioned a few days ago the lack of proper heights to our North meant caution was needed. And so it appears to be the case as the models are all over the place and none show proper heights to our North (Inc ecm)

🤔

ECH1-216.GIF?15-12

 

(Not saying this is what will happen, btw)

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

This must be pretend then......😉

ECM

image.thumb.png.51d5d0330c5b37f559ede033d4d7ac31.png

It's one run and completely different to its previous run so here's hoping but I wouldn't bet on it

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Very, very little support from the GEFS for the ECM Run

Support.thumb.png.0b500bcc0b7bcd6bee147d4d2eb18427.png

ECM Det has a fair amount of support from it's ENS with varying E/NE'ly from low pressure to the South or high pressure to the North. It's very much GEFS vs EPS this morning. 

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Icon continues with the slider and does not back the gfs on the 06z!!

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