Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Banbury]

Well GEFS certainly not as cold this morning 

[SMU]

Right off to work--

As said - storm ripped apart & sheared south for another snow event

Look at the 144 -unless you read the jet you dont think the storm will do that!

[feb1991blizzard]

168 - feb 96 redux

[Radiating Dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Well GEFS certainly not as cold this morning 

Given up viewing these as they change as much as the op does. If the higher res op is struggling then what chance do the lower res ensemble runs have. I know it is there to evaluate different scenarios that could occur and trends but it just strikes me as being a collection of pretty pictures (or horrid).

Edited January 15, 2019 by Radiating Dendrite

[That ECM]

T192 ecm. Very nice. Now that’s a theme I would like to see continued

Edited January 15, 2019 by That ECM

[KTtom]

Ecm shaping up similar to last night's....gone is the mid week storm, instead it's another slider with better ridging in the Atlantic...should be good...

Yep, excellent again at 192

Edited January 15, 2019 by KTtom

[shaky]

Amazing ecm and also importantly in regards to that slider early on at 96 hours its further west compared to 12z yesterday so even better!!ukmo still the same as 12z although little bit further east at 144 hours!!so gfs odd one out early on again!!

[Ali1977]

Anyone any precious charts for ECM, would there be much with this? 

[booferking]

The difference in the medium term between the FV3 & ECM of the the PV is mind boggling.

Edited January 15, 2019 by booferking

[swfc]

ecm looks a ripper !!! hope it holds its ground today

[That ECM]

That’ll work t216 ecm.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Amazing ecm and also importantly in regards to that slider early on at 96 hours its further west compared to 12z yesterday so even better!!ukmo still the same as 12z although little bit further east at 144 hours!!so gfs odd one out early on again!!

EC looks fabulous...

is it right tho?

thats the million dollar question of course!!

[Ali1977]

No real upgrades in cold this morning - but then BOOM, look at that ECM run. This is proper winter type stuff, no piddly PM or cold zonal.

Beautiful 

Edited January 15, 2019 by Ali1977

[swfc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks fabulous...

is it right tho?

thats the million dollar question of course!!

probably not but it looks nice!!!! 850s mighnt be a problem tho

[Banbury]

Before anyone gets the Champs out  see where it sits - ECM is a cracking run 

Edited January 15, 2019 by Banbury

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks fabulous...

is it right tho?

thats the million dollar question of course!!

Ecm lead the way last time and called the beast before the others came on board. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Before anyone gets the Champs out  see where it sits - ECM is a cracking run 

Its a beauty mate..

Looks brilliant in every way imaginable...

Hopefully mean / eps stay on target.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its a beauty mate..

Looks brilliant in every way imaginable...

Hopefully mean / eps stay on target.

Yes, but the uppers are a little disappointing at the end.....but synoptically it is great. 

[Met4Cast]

ECM is quite possibly the best run of the winter..

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, but the uppers are a little disappointing at the end.....but synoptically it is great. 

Small lull before the next wave of cold uppers..

[ICE COLD]

I really really hope the ecm is on the money . I hope the gfs lovin Crewe are wrong , I really do . The ecm is a stonker again . 

[Spah1]

19 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, but the uppers are a little disappointing at the end.....but synoptically it is great. 

 Another day/2 days later the uppers would be very cold. 

As explained a million times they don’t need to be -10 in a flow from the East. 

Edited January 15, 2019 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[MattStoke]

ECM nicely following it’s seasonal and 46 day model outputs.

[kold weather]

The GFS and ECM are literally world's apart! However the GFS has now at least got a realistic setup on the Arctic. Gone is that raging PV from that useless 18z run and replaced with that arctic high.

I'd probably say the 00z ECM is being a little overly progressive this morning.

[That ECM]

T144 of all 3 why would anyone back the gfs when it is not even in the same book let alone on the same page? Ecm overdoing height  rises? Possibly but fits with ec 46.