Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM interesting towards day 8-

But again, interference from that suppressed Atlantic HP as it runs on further, same with GFS-

Edited January 15, 2019 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

Half way through and this winter promised all and is delivering nothing at the moment. 15th Jan and not one flake of snow has fallen here this winter.

GEM sees the EC46's Greenland ridge and raises it a polar vortex

Edited January 15, 2019 by CreweCold

[essexweather]

Bit of a surprise how poor the output is for the medium term on the 00Z GFS and UKMO

Potential for sleet and snow for some, but the slushy kind and gone by lunchtime sort. On to the ECM...

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, essexweather said:

Bit of a surprise how poor the output is for the medium term on the 00Z GFS and UKMO

Potential for sleet and snow for some, but the slushy kind and gone by lunchtime sort. On to the ECM...

As soon as I saw the GFS pick up on the jet going over the top of the set up a few days back, alarm bells started ringing for the mid term. Usually when one model picks up on that (I won't discriminate here), things start to fall in other NWP products. The UKMO is the first to go this morning. 

[AWD]

0z Arpege has a more elongated trough when compared to the 0z GFS - 

Not going to pretend what that means at the surface though, re wet or white or both!

[Cheshire Freeze]

UKMO 144-

GEFS mean 144-

[Mucka]

Two or three GFS ensemble members support ICON and any kind of UK/Scandi ridge depending on how picky you are

It would be great to see support from GFSp or ECM

Edited January 15, 2019 by Mucka

[O'Maille80]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

UKMO 144-

GEFS mean 144-

Are those not for 6 day away? I thought it wasn't expected to get cold enough for snow until the 23rd. Next Wednesday.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, O'Maille80 said:

Are those not for 6 day away? I thought it wasn't expected to get cold enough for snow until the 23rd. Next Wednesday.

Well you'll probably find it was mid month, then 20th, then 21st, now 23rd...you get my drift.

All good, still believe we'll get there.

[Mucka]

21 minutes ago, AWD said:

0z Arpege has a more elongated trough when compared to the 0z GFS - 

Not going to pretend what that means at the surface though, re wet or white or both!

More in line with ICON having it disrupt to the W of UK rather than slide across UK a la GFS

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just before the more experienced come on I want to clear a few things up.. 

GFS is a crap model when looking at weather coming from any other direction bare west. Its a westerly biased model and thus it churns out stuff only to be corrected within a very short time period. It has picked up things in the past and been right about it, but it doesn't have the capability to be right very often. 

If the US gets cold and snow it kills our chances...wrong, while it maybe the case the jet stream gets more energy into it, if you have a block in place or a disrupted jet stream you can still get cold here no problem. 

The overnight runs often bring misery only to be corrected through the day. One run does not mean a new "trend" is on the horizon. It takes several runs across the board to pick up a trend.. 

Time periods are usually wrong with weather. It's near on impossible to pin point this will happen at this date type of thing. Your talking about very complex and global weather right now... 

Yesterday we said FI was 3-4 days. That's still the case now so with that in mind anything past 72-96hrs look at it, process it, compare it, bin it. 

[swfc]

I'm slightly confused this morning?posts saying ec46 showing blocking over Greenland rte but zero sign of anything?what time scale does this cover .tia

[tinybill]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Just before the more experienced come on I want to clear a few things up.. 

GFS is a crap model when looking at weather coming from any other direction bare west. Its a westerly biased model and thus it churns out stuff only to be corrected within a very short time period. It has picked up things in the past and been right about it, but it doesn't have the capability to be right very often. 

If the US gets cold and snow it kills our chances...wrong, while it maybe the case the jet stream gets more energy into it, if you have a block in place or a disrupted jet stream you can still get cold here no problem. 

The overnight runs often bring misery only to be corrected through the day. One run does not mean a new "trend" is on the horizon. It takes several runs across the board to pick up a trend.. 

Time periods are usually wrong with weather. It's near on impossible to pin point this will happen at this date type of thing. Your talking about very complex and global weather right now... 

Yesterday we said FI was 3-4 days. That's still the case now so with that in mind anything past 72-96hrs look at it, process it, compare it, bin it. 

you beat  me to it looking  at the gfs   over night from over all runs  i hoping  this one can be binned  its  poor to say the  least

[Mr snowman 2018]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Just before the more experienced come on I want to clear a few things up.. 

GFS is a crap model when looking at weather coming from any other direction bare west. Its a westerly biased model and thus it churns out stuff only to be corrected within a very short time period. It has picked up things in the past and been right about it, but it doesn't have the capability to be right very often. 

If the US gets cold and snow it kills our chances...wrong, while it maybe the case the jet stream gets more energy into it, if you have a block in place or a disrupted jet stream you can still get cold here no problem. 

The overnight runs often bring misery only to be corrected through the day. One run does not mean a new "trend" is on the horizon. It takes several runs across the board to pick up a trend.. 

Time periods are usually wrong with weather. It's near on impossible to pin point this will happen at this date type of thing. Your talking about very complex and global weather right now... 

Yesterday we said FI was 3-4 days. That's still the case now so with that in mind anything past 72-96hrs look at it, process it, compare it, bin it. 

Gfs has been poor for the last 5 or so runs isn't that a trend ?

 

[Met4Cast]

EC46 consistent with last weeks in developing blocking broadly to the North of the UK early February

The last 10 days of January though are largely dominated by high pressure in the Atlantic and a Euro trough 

I'm not sure what people are expecting to see on the likes of GFS/ECM? There has been no suggestion of High Latitude Blocking on any run or ensemble suite, the next week or two were always predicted to be cold zonal rather than anything sustained so I don't quite understand the negativity this morning. It's almost like people were expecting Narnia and instead have ended up with slush. 

Cold zonal is the and has always been the likely pattern going forward with end of Jan/Feb perhaps offering something a little more sustained in the way of cold/snow. 

With the above in mind, the first potential spell of snow comes on Friday as the low pressure disrupts and slides South-Eastwards (GFS finally on board with that, though STILL lagging behind the other models)

GFS

ICON

APERGE

APERGE doesn't really get the front into the UK at all even by Saturday evening, would expect this to be the case rather than the GFS continued progressive nature. 

Not sure whats going on with the GFS lately but it's been shockingly bad. So. Cold zonal, some snow risks at times, no deep sustained cold. Yet.

[northwestsnow]

Hmmmmmmmm..

Only ICON floating my boat this morning..

Dont see much resemblance to the EC on pretty much any of the 00z runs..

Big EC coming up shortly, i'm not bothered about GFS but i am bothered by UKMO 144..

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmmmmmm..

Only ICON floating my boat this morning..

Dont see much resemblance to the EC on pretty much any of the 00z runs..

Big EC coming up shortly, i'm not bothered about GFS but i am bothered by UKMO 144..



Morning NWS! 

Not the best UKMO 144 there.. GFS is cold zonal throughout though given it's recent performance it could show anything and I'd probably still ignore it, having said that there's a decent amount of support for the UKMO within the ensemble suite..

 

[knocker]

Following on from the short range with the gfs. The ridge soon comes under pressure and by midday Monday there is a deep low over Iceland and associated front(s) approaching western Scotland

The low then tracks east and the front sweeps south east across the country bringing gales, rain and snow on Tuesday as the subtropical high surges strongly in mid Atlantic

[Skyraker]

What time do the FAX charts get updated usually?

Will show any corrections if it’s “on one”.

[KTtom]

Hmm, wonder if the south west will get the first snow fall of the winter...fax from last night taking the slider down the western side with a continental draw to the north and east.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Morning NWS! 

Not the best UKMO 144 there.. GFS is cold zonal throughout though given it's recent performance it could show anything and I'd probably still ignore it, having said that there's a decent amount of support for the UKMO within the ensemble suite..

 

Morning Daniel

We are super relying on EC maintaining its stance this morning- UKMO pushes everything way to far east for my liking!

Maybe my interpretation is wrong i'm not sure, but looking at the EC from last night its worlds away from where UKMO is this morning at 144.

 

[SMU]

Morning 

ICON is the same as the 12z ECM yesterday ( just a shade colder)- which is great 

UKMO is ok - colder than yesterday - it has the same trough as ICON at 144 over Iceland, just a bit further NE-

Aperge very good @96 as well-

GFS - not even viewed now.

 

 

Edited January 15, 2019 by Steve Murr

[SMU]

ECM 96 for London

SSW light flow, -5c uppers & 528 Thickness- PPN not that far west-

[shaky]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 96 for London

SSW light flow, -5c uppers & 528 Thickness- PPN not that far west-

As long as its further west than yesterday earlly on its a good start?

[SMU]

Just now, shaky said:

As long as its further west than yesterday earlly on its a good start?

yeah its fine

144 is good -some sort of snow event in the ESE thickness 524 & -5/-6c uppers

atlantic storm alligned to sink south -