Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[markw2680]

12 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well the GFS is starting to look better at day 7, better angle of attack from the northwest.  There is some similarity to the ECM at 168 in our neck of the woods as well, though the NH profile is quite different

GFS   ECM  

I cannot believe the difference between the two models it’s mental. One of the will have to come into line tomorrow I’d of thought. Just hope it’s the gfs that has it all wrong

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Absolute garbage from GFS, here T138 vs ECM 12z T144:

I refer you to my earlier post about verification stats post US government shutdown.  

Yet the UKMO is far more like the GFS at t144?

 

BFTP

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Clusters tonight are basically awesome for cold, as you'd expect, but this is the most awesome of all - the D15 chart. 66% of runs going for the Greenland ridge! 

Oh yes MWB I do like a stonking post from you . You have posted some stonkers tonight . Keep em coming

[kold weather]

Good grief the 18z is already different over the Arctic by 144hrs to the 12z ECM, the ECM is still broadly negative, the GFS is going fairly positive on the AO...

Going to be a pants FI to finish I'm afraid with that set-up once the upper low to our east decays.

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Clusters tonight are basically awesome for cold, as you'd expect, but this is the most awesome of all - the D15 chart. 66% of runs going for the Greenland ridge! 

If Carlsburg did clusters!  They are so impressive, momentum is really building tonight.

[Allseasons-Si]

No ec46?

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yet the UKMO is far more like the GFS at t144?

 

BFTP

THe big difference between the 18z GFS op and the other 12z suite including the UKMO is how it handles the Arctic High. In all other models it keeps the Arctic high intact.

The 18z GFS cleves it and forms a new proto PV exactly where the ECM has the arctic high by 168hrs.  if you watch that lobe it eventually forms the PV lobe over NE Canada and hence why the patterns starts to flatten out by 216hrs again.

That's why the 18z is garbage compared to the other runs.

Edited January 14, 2019 by kold weather

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yet the UKMO is far more like the GFS at t144?

 

BFTP

It’s not ...... gfs much flatter to our e and ne 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yet the UKMO is far more like the GFS at t144?

 

BFTP

No, not really, very different over Arctic region (crucial) and wrt to trop vortex split, UKMO T144 chart

 

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, ens mean max temps for my area - below freezing for several days at the end - with the spread on the low side of the minima as low as -15c.

I’ll have a little bet there’s a -20c in there  

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

I’ll have a little bet there’s a -20c in there  

It wasn't recorded as there is no official station anywhere near us but many people told me that there were several nights in Dec 2010 where -20c was breached here.

[Allseasons-Si]

Loving that siberian high on this run and may play a part down the line.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It wasn't recorded as there is no official station anywhere near us but many people told me that there were several nights in Dec 2010 where -20c was breached here.

Oh sorry, I mean the EC extended Ens that we will see soon. Expecting a cold set ? 

Edited January 14, 2019 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

No ec46?

Its already been posted - 

 

[bluearmy]

Ec46 week 5 is more of the same ...euro trough then pulls back west later week 6 which relaxes the uppers for week 7

basically ...... cold ......and potentially snowy ......

[Vikos]

945 massive storm for german coast.... that'll be very serious, among all those snow whispering btw

 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Loving that siberian high on this run and may play a part down the line.

The only part that is playing is to keep Eurooe nice and above average temperature wise, totally in contrast to the 12z ECM suite and extended range forecast. Not with that upper profile over the Arctic.

Awful run, worst in a long time from the GFS unfortunately...no way any good will come off it. Cold would be about 10 days off from that chart at BEST.

Edited January 14, 2019 by kold weather

[tight isobar]

15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Clusters tonight are basically awesome for cold, as you'd expect, but this is the most awesome of all - the D15 chart. 66% of runs going for the Greenland ridge! 

Nice 1 MWB..

THE clusters are indicative of format..in scale and prog.

Lets hope the mood relaxes..

GH-heights..and even 'wrap' into base russia/scandi are  ALSO-viable options.

WE gain we get closer...

Edited January 14, 2019 by tight isobar

[Mike Poole]

If anyone thinks anything like this could actually occur, please think again, looks like a partially decapitated hippopotamus, pub run T384:

Edited January 14, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The only part that is playing is to keep Eurooe nice and above average temperature wise, totally in contrast to the 12z ECM suite and extended range forecast. Not with that upper profile over the Arctic.

Awful run, worst in a long time from the GFS unfortunately...no way any good will come off it. Cold would be about 10 days off from that chart at BEST.

What i should of said was it looked stronger than the 12z in that area,all in FL anyway,the anomoly's don't favour that scenario and looking for signs of a Greeny ridge that probably be the more outcome looking at the latest ec46

i am no expert in this game but have some knowledge,some.

i always follow the more ep on here and are always a great read,where would we be without them eh!

 

Edited January 14, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

If anyone think anything like this could actually occur, please think again, looks like a partially decapitated hippopotamus, pub run T384:

How peoples minds work  Freud would have a field day   

[kold weather]

There is a little surface cold we make between 312-348hrs but its pretty bleak in this run and it all stems from what its doing in he Arctic post 120hrs. Better hope its wrong otherwise we have literally no chance of any deep cold before 10th Feb I'd guess. Eventual evolution COULD be like Feb 91 but that took several weeks from the point the 18z is at at 384hrs.

Throw this one in the bin for now and review again tomorrow.

[kold weather]

Just as an example of why the 18z GFs reminds me of the 91 outbreak, take a look at this and compare it to 384hrs:

The deep cold was still around 7 days away at this point.

Even so, this run is utter trash and is rather at odds with the ECM ensembles which have a totally different pattern. I'd trust the ECM to handle the Arctic better ANY day of the week.

Edited January 14, 2019 by kold weather

[FENDER.]

Gfs v the rest then??      

 

[Man With Beard]

26 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh yes MWB I do like a stonking post from you . You have posted some stonkers tonight . Keep em coming

Oh I could go on all night. For instance, on the 27th January, all 51 runs have snow on the ground in some northern cities. Never seen that before at T336!