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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

less than the 00z ….. day 10 is a bit early …...

Nice Northerly tho all the building block seem to be coming together the last couple of Days.🙂

ECH0-216.gif

ECH1-216.gif

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s a great looking chart, as early as Thurs next week. It’s been creeping forward a little - Blue mentioned that earlier too I think. 

04E90E88-FD86-4402-8FC2-9C92E39FEE79.png

Agreed, that is a good chart.  Atlantic running out of steam, wedge formed, very cold air ‘piling’ south

 

BFTP

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20 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It would be wise to credit the Met Office with that screenshot from the weather studio

Done!

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Posted (edited)

Good to cool the ground down first eh

AA3C9751-E0B4-4386-BB3B-FB734AEBB004.thumb.png.1d1f8d506ac93c49535080cf90f05fbd.pngF9278D78-8DEF-4BB0-BFA5-186F2AE91F1C.thumb.png.3603faf09cd2dce20e0bb6dff867774e.png

Edited by karlos1983

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59 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

A quick Look at the ENS graph shows there’s little sign of mild as we head toward the last third of January. 

Central South coast 

62F5F3EF-C758-4204-BD4B-5E1A6B0691AB.thumb.gif.8a71ee9df32ecd641ceb110f0ab1e2a6.gif

Some noce ppn spikes as well... ❄️🤷‍♂️

Central South Coast here - if you're excited then I might start feeling that it is going to come off!

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

Good to cool the ground down first eh

AA3C9751-E0B4-4386-BB3B-FB734AEBB004.thumb.png.1d1f8d506ac93c49535080cf90f05fbd.pngF9278D78-8DEF-4BB0-BFA5-186F2AE91F1C.thumb.png.3603faf09cd2dce20e0bb6dff867774e.png

Serious cold, country wide snow possible there. Things are really ramping up now, we are t at day 16 FI anymore.

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Nice ecm in FI land it just needs to get towards the reliable time frame now without disappearing or massive downgrading.

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Hmm interesting ecm!!looking good with a wedge at 240 hours!!

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Posted (edited)

Chino said your here to april😜 and your more than welcome. 👍 By the way we’ve you been we’ve been worried sick.😄

51926DE2-4D03-4755-B5B2-B3D82B9406AE.png

Edited by That ECM

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Good looking ECM, either way I think that will go cold, either from the low heading in our direction and shooting what looks to be a decently cold flow from a westerly, or the whole lot slides down and we could lock into a real prolonged pattern.

Only slight downside is the arctic high is far less impressive this run and the upper vortex looks stronger as well.

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GFS Parallel is on steroids on the 12hr run ...cold and then severe cold at the end

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1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

GFS Parallel is on steroids on the 12hr run ...cold and then severe cold at the end

It's been delayed that's 6z.

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1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

GFS Parallel is on steroids on the 12hr run ...cold and then severe cold at the end

Am I missing something? To me it looks the parallel isn't updating at all and still stuck at the 6z

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

It's been delayed that's 6z.

oops take it all back..as you were

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Guest
Posted (edited)

Very brief comments from me as no time until the end of the week.

Great to see much better looking output and obviously the much more +ve mood that goes with it.  Some excellent posts too with some well thought through analyses.

I just wanted to make a few comments on the change in the output.  Assuming that the models are starting to sniff out the wind reversals and down welling to the surface near the pole and that actually transpire, then I'll refer to what often happens when SSWs start to take hold - especially split events (and the displaced/split event that we're seeing does in that respect rather match 2013 and perhaps it will for longevity too - many differences in detail too).  I'll leave that bit to our strat specialists.  

This is so different to what we are normally looking for.  As some of us have been saying, the HP builds over the pole. When it really takes hold and the full reversal occurs (hopefully it's still just a case of timing) it becomes the dominating feature.  It displaces the TPV and even stubborn looking patterns can be displaced amazingly rapidly. We are staring to see a variety of solutions showing up in how we get from the current set up into a cold and blocked regime. I actually feel that we'll see any easterly much sooner in this process than much of the output is suggesting (some not at all "yet") - perhaps around Jan 25th-30th, assuming that the rough target date remains near Jan 20th (may still be further delays). Before you think, how can I say this, let me briefly explain.

I could pick from quite a few ens charts but the GEM solution is well on the way to what I want to show:

gem1.thumb.PNG.aeb8b1875a790863493984e580a44873.PNG  

As many charts are showing to various degrees, we have the HP building over the pole. The PV has already split at the surface by day 8 and more so on this day 10 chart).  The Euro lobe is being pushed down towards eastern Scandinavia and central/northern Europe and on its way to central/southern Europe. The Canadian lobe will weaken and we really do not need to get hung up about it. The LP over and to the east of us by then already contains some fairly cold Arctic air in its circulation.  The Arctic HP is likely to initially ridge southwards - just imagine all that Arctic cold air being forced out by the polar easterlies and displaced towards the mid latitudes. Some models have it linking up with the Atlantic ridge and a stronger northerly but again that's not important as I believe that this is only transient. Not a topler to let the Atlantic in - quite the reverse. The LP over us continues to track east south eastwards.and the Euro lobe continues on its way south. Then the key bit which has happened so many times in these SSW scenarios - pressure builds strongly and rapidly over the top of the Euro lobe.  From the north and/or the north east.  GEM have strong HP building from Russia towards the Arctic.  Before you know it a strong Scandi HP is building.  We might see small variants on this with a Scandi/iceland HP or even the ultimate prize of a Scandi/Siberian HP. Once in place this type of pattern can become entrenched. Once established, at times the HP can retrogress towards Greenland and allow a real Arctic blast but the easterly or north easterly is usually back quite quickly afterwards and that's, as we know, is likely to deliver our deepest cold.   

I saw several comments that it doesn't look that cold (surface and 850s) on some of the otherwise promising charts and the ones which have deeper cold cannot be believed. This is deep Arctic cold being ejected and it now seems very likely that some (or perhaps a lot) of it has the UK's name on it. Once this change is underway, it's likely to fall into place really quickly. Overall, we still need to watch the down welling, the reversal, the final evolution and the timing of it all but something along the lines I've suggested is IMHO quite a likely scenario.

Back around Friday - David 🙂 

EDIT: I see that ECM is not far off this evolution too - perhaps a day or two behind 

Edited by Guest

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

gensnh-14-3-372.thumb.png.a84676b2ee3440e68241b621590ae5f1.pnggensnh-16-1-300.thumb.png.053f634c5464382f96c10d51e1fe6940.png

An ‘easterly’ from Kamchatka to Alaska......I make that about 24000 miles 🤡

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Posted (edited)

I mentioned a few days ago we would likely see a significant flip in the ensembles and an increase of eye candy charts for circa 20th Jan onwards in the coming days, I really couldn’t understand the despondency shared by a few. The atmosphere is in a highly chaotic state, this changes aren’t always immediate and dramatic across NWP. It’s all about looking at the bigger picture and this has for some time remained highly consistent if cold weather is your thing. 

All going to plan, if anything slightly earlier than originally anticipated.

Expect to see UKMO cotton on to these changes in next couple of days...steady as she goes...winter is coming.

A

Edited by East801

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Don’t been to downhearted if the Det is very much towards the cold side of the  ens. It might not be, but it wouldn’t surprise me. (Towards the end of the run) 

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