Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[stratty]

18 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Is that a mean snow chart Nick ??

............quite a generous one, I thought

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi MWB whats the consistency of pressure depths of that low-

just feels over blown....

Expecting a watered down version

I was just musing over this earlier,a less vigorous trough would mean less mixing out of the cold air,i would think more of a trough diruption would play out nearer the time,maybe it was thinking about a gfs style run lol.

[Summer Sun]

1st signs of the colder air moving into the UK and Ireland by Wednesday lunchtime with snow showing for parts of Scotland, NI & ROI

Euro 4

[edinburgh_1992]

Hopefully we will get to see some settling snow in Scotland. Looks quite likely but I won't get excited too early.

Nice runs this evening

[tight isobar]

Negative-arctic oss..

Are dip diving.

The note of mjo phase is of, deep decipher..

Although good..going forwards.

Large scale limpit lobe is ..'as said'..the breast feeder (jokes aside)..

And the downwelling has now talked to the trop..

And the mechanics/INDEED DYNAMICS will start to show through raw modeling.

And the space/cut allowance..via wide-scale atlantin scope..WILL ALLOW THE gain for heights as the up-flooring also elapses!!!..

Im sorry i cannot post certain snaps..'paywall'..i'll s#it em.. but abide..i must ...

 

[karlos1983]

Can’t wait to see the ext ens later! Short ens are decent as it is

south coast of England 

[January Snowstorm]

That ECM mean really is spectacular. GFS really is rubbish lately

[Nick F]

3 hours ago, swfc said:

ECM blows up 216 hrs.wet and very windy !!!

Wet and windy you say? Looks snowy and windy away from the far south. A beast of storm that next Wednesday.

Looking further ahead, the GEFS shows quite well the trop PV dropping south over N America while same time downstream response to amplify a ridge across Greenland and drops south another lob of the trop PV / vortex over Europe - so looks game on for end of Jan for a more protracted and colder cold spell 

Edited January 14, 2019 by Nick F

[Allseasons-Si]

And as we keep on seeing troughs dropping NW>SE into Europe,then the back door will open up later to NE/E winds,

i don't want to jinx it but that is what i think at the moment.

[WalsallWeather123]

Midlands getting a dumping on icon

[thetipster]

icon slides like a

[snowray]

Well you couldn't make this up, still no slider on the GFS 18z!

[weirpig]

Can already see at a early point the GFS run at least in the short term is nothing like the ECM   

     

Edited January 14, 2019 by weirpig

[Mair Snaw]

BBC news 7 dayer had that slider dropping straight thru the middle of the UK with lots of white showing up and they did say the cold looks like sticking around for some time. i wonder what model they are following. one thing for certain is that the model runs in the coming days are gonna start to get really interesting and i can see this place being a mad house of happy snow hunters in the coming weeks. Pub run special coming up i feel.

[festivalking]

1 minute ago, bigsnow said:

BBC news 7 dayer had that slider dropping straight thru the middle of the UK with lots of white showing up and they did say the cold looks like sticking around for some time. i wonder what model they are following. one thing for certain is that the model runs in the coming days are gonna start to get really interesting and i can see this place being a mad house of happy snow hunters in the coming weeks. Pub run special coming up i feel.

They follow ECM

[BlackburnChris]

Just now, festivalking said:

They follow ECM

I wouldn't disregard the progress we have made this evening with an 18z GFS, can almost guarantee the Para will be better going by recent output. Id love to see the verification between para and GFS. Does anybody know when the Para becomes perminant?

[SMU]

No pub run special, its to flat.

May drop the bomb as per usual runs but apart from that its woeful.

Take note GFS lovers- T96 its a fair chunk away, 120 even worse...

[tight isobar]

The gfs offering.. the valve thrmo feed.

This is where 'finally' the GFS may at last?..

Be organise-of itself.

Drain..and syphon, of the lobe force..

Gets modeled correct.

And the out'4 height alliance gathers.

We have pacific looking..and already welling on the upper layers..

 

We drain...we gain...

@greenland heights..

Ive banged this drum..and will continue to.!

[Banbury]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

No pub run special, its to flat.

May drop the bomb as per usual runs but apart from that its woeful.

Take note GFS lovers- T96 its a fair chunk away, 120 even worse...

No Operational special , just to clarify .

The Para and GEFS could be spectacular 

[northwestsnow]

I was just going to type i feel GFS 18Z is looking better ..

[ICE COLD]

Any news on the EC46 people ? 

[Penrith Snow]

8 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

BBC news 7 dayer had that slider dropping straight thru the middle of the UK with lots of white showing up and they did say the cold looks like sticking around for some time. i wonder what model they are following. one thing for certain is that the model runs in the coming days are gonna start to get really interesting and i can see this place being a mad house of happy snow hunters in the coming weeks. Pub run special coming up i feel.

Final chart looked a lot like the ECM, might finally get some snow on the Lake District Fells but TBH its all still a long way off so feat remaining grounded.

Andy

[blizzard81]

We really need a similarly wintry ecm 00z suite in the morning to settle nerves.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Any news on the EC46 people ? 

Stonker!

[snowice]

3 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

I wouldn't disregard the progress we have made this evening with an 18z GFS, can almost guarantee the Para will be better going by recent output. Id love to see the verification between para and GFS. Does anybody know when the Para becomes perminant?

When the government USA strike is over February!