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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They're an absolute snorter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

Stunning ……..…….nice one !

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11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Whilst many factors are marginal for snow on the ECM, don’t forget the DAM / thickness. 528 or lower is usually what’s required for snow ....

89793255-5994-406D-8AE1-6FB7ED466439.jpeg

Indeed. With such low heights the 850 guide is not as helpful and I was surprised to see rain for the far central south and southeast in the raw data. Model must have drawn in a shallow milder layer off the sea... but these are usually under-modified as they head inland.

Odds are the low will be weaker with less wrap-in trouble anyway (based on historical precedent). A pretty vigorous system is certainly possible though due to the very unstable nature of the deeply cold airmass crossing the mild ocean SSTs.

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Evening. The outlook is colder yes, but how cold and for how long still remains a big question, really cant take any detail as reality even with a modest timeframe, gfs and ecm look so different by the end of the week, you cant dismiss either! A bit like a Chocolate Teapot!

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2 minutes ago, supernova said:

Certainly cold Karlos but a tad on the dry side, especially in the East, which seems odd given the Continental influence? Anyway, that old adage, cold in first etc. Be interested to see 15 day precipitation charts later tonight. Will post if interesting.

I’m guessing average ppn singnal is still not especially dry in late January into February ?

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6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Indeed. With such low heights the 850 guide is not as helpful and I was surprised to see rain for the far central south and southeast in the raw data. Model must have drawn in a shallow milder layer off the sea... but these are usually under-modified as they head inland.

Odds are the low will be weaker with less wrap-in trouble anyway (based on historical precedent). A pretty vigorous system is certainly possible though due to the very unstable nature of the deeply cold airmass crossing the mild ocean SSTs.

Yeah the wind flow coming from the channel is nearly always the death knell for events south of the M4 in these set-ups, I can't remember a single event like that bringing snow in any of locations in the south I've lived in in the last 20 years...but then again always a time for firsts, and you've got to think with even a slight bit of height you'd be getting snow even in the south.ven

As you said the odds of it coming in quite as hot as the ECM says is low, but 955mbs isn't so deep as to be improbable, even if it was a little unlikely.

Whilst the 46 day ECM is amazing, I've got to say I've been seeing those charts for the last month now and it seems not to have come off thus far, just for balance

Edited by kold weather
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20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It might not be much use - depends how tonights eps ends - differences on the mean at 240 so if 360 is vastly different and this run is repeated, then it might be redundant, however, if it still manages to get blocking in then thats a good sign, can't see it being as good as previous updates - its just too much to expect to keep on repeating it.

Looks like they did repeat...:)

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like a NE flow to me - expect the Greenland heights to be maintained - take back what i said - possibly migrating scandi at the end, its the NW where we have below average PPN on there, the blue colourss are in the NE, you wont get massively above average PPN charts with those charts with blocked signals - don't forget, you only need average, even slightly below average - weekly averages for this time of year are around 20-25mm of PPN, so even if you get half of that - you are looking at 10-12cm of snow!!

Sorry Feb I misread those anomalies. Good spot from you and @karlos1983. Yes, of course, average would be fine if the cold finally prevails. And though not comparing winters, we do love a NE flow on the east coast (unforecast Polar Low came bounding in 2010 and buried us)! Here's hoping. Anyway, much to cheer within the ECM outlook tonight - let's hoping the Euro's have the edge currently.

Edited by supernova
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10 minutes ago, supernova said:

Certainly cold Karlos but a tad on the dry side, especially in the East, which seems odd given the Continental influence? Anyway, that old adage, cold in first etc. Be interested to see 15 day precipitation charts later tonight. Will post if interesting.

I don't think they'll show much to be honest but they do seem to suggest east or north east winds so probably convective in nature and I don't know how accurate the model is for convectivity?

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Much to look forward to tonight - the height anomalies that go with those temp charts, the regular ECM ens graph, and still the GFS/GEFS suite 18z. - what a change of mood compared to last night at this time.

Even the parallel would be leave me happy, if the air was just a little bit colder for the first slider and the mild air was completely squeezed out at T180 we would have two nice snow events (especially the second scenario as its an active cold front). The parallel does a good job in bringing the cold air from the NW across us and the ECM is really good too.

Hopefully we will start seeing more swings to cold for the 18z.

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Even the parallel would be leave me happy, if the air was just a little bit colder for the first slider and the mild air was completely squeezed out at T180 we would have two nice snow events (especially the second scenario as its an active cold front). The parallel does a good job in bringing the cold air from the NW across us and the ECM is really good too.

Hopefully we will start seeing more swings to cold for the 18z.

Yes, i hate those ones where the front looks very active before hand and the BBC and models have a thick line of heavy snow, and once its within T12 and then on the radar, it becomes all fragmanted and patchy and light - doesnt look like one of those with those 850 to 500mb profiles.

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16 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Whilst the 46 day ECM is amazing, I've got to say I've been seeing those charts for the last month now and it seems not to have come off thus far, just for balance

To be fair the ecm46 height anomaly signals for blocking back in late December only grew stronger from January mid-month onwards, firstly with weakish height anomalies near Greenland/mid-Atlantic week 1/2 (which have struggled to materialise) with a stronger signal in the Iceland/Greenland area through to week 3/4 - so hopefully it's just delayed but on track?. Correct me anybody if this isn't accurate (just going by memory).

Edited by Froze were the Days
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12 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS are really good - probably the best so far this winter.

UK trough with heights/pressure building in the Greenland locale.

ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

And the wind direction is getting stronger too if you like a continental feed?

yesterdays v todays

eps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.3456d1d4df9b19ce3200717b7ae8c66f.png371739190_eps_pluim_dd_062601.thumb.png.ee8364ec515e05b8b83663b31ec8a0d2.png

 

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