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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like a NE flow to me - expect the Greenland heights to be maintained - take back what i said - possibly migrating scandi at the end, its the NW where we have below average PPN on there, the blue colourss are in the NE, you wont get massively above average PPN charts with those charts with blocked signals - don't forget, you only need average, even slightly below average - weekly averages for this time of year are around 20-25mm of PPN, so even if you get half of that - you are looking at 10-12cm of snow!!

Sorry Feb I misread those anomalies. Good spot from you and @karlos1983. Yes, of course, average would be fine if the cold finally prevails. And though not comparing winters, we do love a NE flow on the east coast (unforecast Polar Low came bounding in 2010 and buried us)! Here's hoping. Anyway, much to cheer within the ECM outlook tonight - let's hoping the Euro's have the edge currently.

Edited by supernova
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
10 minutes ago, supernova said:

Certainly cold Karlos but a tad on the dry side, especially in the East, which seems odd given the Continental influence? Anyway, that old adage, cold in first etc. Be interested to see 15 day precipitation charts later tonight. Will post if interesting.

I don't think they'll show much to be honest but they do seem to suggest east or north east winds so probably convective in nature and I don't know how accurate the model is for convectivity?

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Much to look forward to tonight - the height anomalies that go with those temp charts, the regular ECM ens graph, and still the GFS/GEFS suite 18z. - what a change of mood compared to last night at this time.

Even the parallel would be leave me happy, if the air was just a little bit colder for the first slider and the mild air was completely squeezed out at T180 we would have two nice snow events (especially the second scenario as its an active cold front). The parallel does a good job in bringing the cold air from the NW across us and the ECM is really good too.

Hopefully we will start seeing more swings to cold for the 18z.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Even the parallel would be leave me happy, if the air was just a little bit colder for the first slider and the mild air was completely squeezed out at T180 we would have two nice snow events (especially the second scenario as its an active cold front). The parallel does a good job in bringing the cold air from the NW across us and the ECM is really good too.

Hopefully we will start seeing more swings to cold for the 18z.

Yes, i hate those ones where the front looks very active before hand and the BBC and models have a thick line of heavy snow, and once its within T12 and then on the radar, it becomes all fragmanted and patchy and light - doesnt look like one of those with those 850 to 500mb profiles.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
16 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Whilst the 46 day ECM is amazing, I've got to say I've been seeing those charts for the last month now and it seems not to have come off thus far, just for balance

To be fair the ecm46 height anomaly signals for blocking back in late December only grew stronger from January mid-month onwards, firstly with weakish height anomalies near Greenland/mid-Atlantic week 1/2 (which have struggled to materialise) with a stronger signal in the Iceland/Greenland area through to week 3/4 - so hopefully it's just delayed but on track?. Correct me anybody if this isn't accurate (just going by memory).

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

EC46 stands firm... contrary to belief that it’s useless.. hopefully the Icelandic site is running smoothly for 22:02 viewing ☺️

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
12 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS are really good - probably the best so far this winter.

UK trough with heights/pressure building in the Greenland locale.

ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

And the wind direction is getting stronger too if you like a continental feed

yesterdays v todays

eps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.3456d1d4df9b19ce3200717b7ae8c66f.png371739190_eps_pluim_dd_062601.thumb.png.ee8364ec515e05b8b83663b31ec8a0d2.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Week 4 Euro update is definitely an easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Some great ensembles in the ECM tonight, fair to say a lot of snowy runs, some are exceptionally snowy for the north (a few are getting close to a 1ft for example) and even the south does get in on the action with some of the runs. Some bigger uncertainties beyond the cyclonic low moving into Europe, but you have to think given background conditions there will be some sort of upper high over the mid-atlantic and into the Greenland area... 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
1 hour ago, kold weather said:

No doubt cold cyclonic flow from the E quadrant, probably a shot at a slidder low from the lp south of Greenland at 240hrs.

BA, that's the one advantage of having a proper deep low pressure coming from that direction, you're getting a true arctic air mass. Still looks classic hill snow territory at 216hrs to me, but I maybe wrong, it nay just be cold enough lower down at time,bespecially in showers

Not quite true arctic; it woulf be tempered on its route (if it makes it at all). Still looks messy.

As mentioned by another poster earlier, there's no point looking beyond 4/5 days at present. We need at least a hint of some kind of cross model agreement, before we can get off level 1 of Donkey Kong.

Edited by Easton Luna Boys
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

EC46 stands firm... contrary to belief that it’s useless.. hopefully the Icelandic site is running smoothly for 22:02 viewing ☺️

I believe it’s at 22:06 Karlos

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

For all the talk of snow from the ECM 12Z OP I think the key point, as alluded to by Knocker, would be the ferocity of such a storm were it to verify. That's a 951MB storm off the west coast of Scotland "filling" to be a 967MB storm over northern France 24 hours later.

As Steve Murr rightly says, no storm of that ferocity has traversed the British Isles from north to south but then again there's a first time for everything. The winds from such a storm would be extremely strong and damaging and that damage intensified by the fact we've had so little real wind this winter.

It probably won't verify like that and that may be a blessing.

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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
3 hours ago, ghoneym said:

Regarding GFS output, I would have a read of this. Its still relevant. The government shutdown is affecting it, no doubt in that. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c917a9b7b0ee

I would take the GFS and the FV3 with a very large rich of salt and on to compare long term trends, and even at that I would say don't trust it.

Surely this would be picked up and commented on by the us forecast providers eg, accuweather, weatherbell etc?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Still differences between ECM and GFS in the reliable, the former showing a less active atlantic, the latter barrelling it through quickly. A middle ground most likely, erring more towards ECM output, so after a shot of northerly air on Thursday, and shortlived ridge in cold air Friday bringing widespread air frost, the weekend looks a messy affair, with a wintry mix as the front stutters across the UK (it could conceivably fizzle, or not make it), with heights building behind temporarily and temps average at best.

Into next week - well major changes forecast, significant, I can't recall the last time I saw models showing such an output, with a major upper low flying through the UK from the north.. lots to keep us interested, compared to what has been an exceptionally quiet few weeks. Snow prospects look significant should the ECM output verify. Just like the beast from the east last year, are we about to see another major winter storm event, out of nowhere, waking us all up from weeks of nothingness..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

To be honest you would think it unlikely that this cold was going to last the whole of Feb to be honest, the strat vortex is now reforming at 10mb on the extended range, at some point it is going to downwell you would think.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

Just checked models for first time since yesterday and very encouraged by the continual theme of Very Cold air plunging south from next Wednesday. Infact it looks quite similar to December 2010 !  Some big snow totals by the end of next week especially in northern areas and then more generally.

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