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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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ECM would be mostly snow 'as shown'. -5c uppers encroaching into already embedded cold air is completely different to the usual PM airmass displacing a TM airmass.

That said, given those synoptics I rather suspect that the uppers would in reality be higher than is currently shown.  

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Wonderful ECM.....ot meets my Pert 6 GFS run the other day on samish date......easterly gale force winds......beautiful 

 

BFTP

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I wonder if this version of the GEFS went out further, whether they could leave a legacy of a Greenland high.

image.thumb.png.b41550ab85e36cf84f4cfef0f58fd48d.png

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So having had a good look at the 12z ECM and the best way to phrase it is wintry between 216-240hrs. All rain for the south, turning alot more snowy the more north you get. 

It's snowy than you'd expect but as ba said, there are some decently low dew points in there away from the south.

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ECm snow charts show Tuesday as being the day were disruptive snow could fall  south wales North  could see the start of a very snowy period  off course all subject to change  but the potential is there     snow line  around 400ft   

Edited by weirpig

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A very deep low system for next week looks scary but time for change 

IMG_20190114_190851.jpg

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ECM op D6-D9 looks like a north of the M4 job. More hope for the south in the days after. 

A bit erratic how it gets there, but the D10 chart is pretty much what the ECM ensembles have been suggesting for 24th January for days. 

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Look at the amount of energy heading down into the euro trough (not to be taken as a forecast ) though does remind me of dec 2010! A large chunk of  the PV effectively taking up residence over France :0 (SSW influenced I should think)

3AB09D38-F894-4974-B5EB-74B1EEB24C62.thumb.png.1ccb95130ca2eb877ba2c9e6aa8b3a80.png

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Anyone here in the north of the UK, say north midlands northwards, with high altitude, go and get your sledges ready ;) everywhere else, surprises could crop up almost anywhere 

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Logged on fully expecting to see a horrific ECM and a high body count from model anger. But very pleasantly surprised to see a positive Model run for cold prospects. Hopefully we are over the worst now and can have upgrades all the way Down to T0 🤣

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Its time for the slushy deposits associated with non-blocked patterns to begin, lets hope either the ECM op or GEFS right at the end are on to something so the blocking arrives soon.

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Take with a dose of salt but here are the options for day 10...

GEM, GFS, GFSP, ECM

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.478bc31d6ef082008ce418a77d336229.pnggfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.1f741e53b79717f07cdd8cd5bc961eb7.pnggfsnh-0-240p.thumb.png.04f860513a315254df0d3c485297474a.pngECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.90320ec9bdf86f18a15cad8df1fb6a4f.png

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EC puts wind in coldies sails..

Day 11 would be superb..

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37 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

No pinches of salt...

THE HIGHLY LIKELY EVO...

@perfect placement...

Edit ..are we getting the notion....#hopefully..

@be @calm...

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_36.png

ECH1-216 (2).gif

Is this similar to yesterday’s GFS Snowicane that was um politely disregarded as unlikely?  I’m beginning to hope those of you, who are far more knowledgeable than me (99.9%),  will also politely disregard the likelihood and severity of this actually happening - meant to be at a public meeting doing a presentation in the evening 😬

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7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

C3654D67-A01B-4FE2-B45E-7601C038CE52.jpeg

As we know, these are overdone.  Snow will be pretty marginal away from the favoured spots.  What is of interest is what happens AFTER day 10.

Not expecting any snow in London on this run.  But things look promising day 10 +.

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC puts wind in coldies sails..

Day 11 would be superb..

Not sure where we go from there but if we did get anywhere near that day 10 point you can see a secondary low develop on it's eastern flank which would move north towards Scandinavia so probably more of a northerly developing and colder uppers being thrown into the mix.

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7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

C3654D67-A01B-4FE2-B45E-7601C038CE52.jpeg

Obviously these type of charts will change right up until +24... but I like that's it's showing potential for snow in the far South West. If it can snow there, it can snow anywhere :oldsmile:

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32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

To date a storm that deep has never crossed North to South across the UK

so chances are a watered down 'spread' version could be on offer with a sharper trough axis & more in the way of continental influence in the flow !

We shall see ...

This gave about 4" of snow in parts of southern England & is a 'worse' chart than what we are seeing at D10.

image.thumb.png.71f4f509c1b046065119077d9f499543.png

😊

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Lovin the ECM mean at T240 get in there . 

01119275-C256-4501-8F47-68BD47136892.png

24BDF571-DC5B-4B36-A85D-AE313A1A783C.png

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