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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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A significant difference even at the early stages between ECM and GFS. Uppers are starkly variable between both models already at t92. ECM and UKMO will win this one out IMO with the slider idea, GFS appears drunk, much like the USA government situation..

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only thing is, steve, its not a very active weather front, i don't see anyone doing what i class as 'well' out of this setup.

To be fair i’d be happy to see a flake at the moment, it feels like we’ve been on the cusp of something since mid Autumn.

Lets hope we are rewarded in the second half of winter.

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

some wild NH day 16 gefs charts - my favourite being PTB 17

i think the problem we have is no one knows the week 2 direction of travel apart from the Canadian trough dropping se ……… and then whether its an extension of the trough or a chunk - how far will it get - how far west will it be - how far east will it be. it could pretty well miss us if its too far east or west. people are expecting proper winter to kick in but the entropy leads to continuity issues and the obvious consequences ….. if this was a winter where we had seen a snowy spell in December, it wouldn't be such a problem ……. sadly its going to take patience to see the nwp come together on a closer theme and timing

note that the ICON12z looks similar to the ec 00z at day 8 so an ec run which looks a lot like its previous output actually wouldn't be a shock ……...although i felt the 12z's thus far had pulled the envelope back a bit from its eastern extent  

I was going to say there are a couple of almost crazy runs (as mad as that 920mbs 18z last night). I love how on no.17 we still end up mildish throughout, just goes to show you only need a small vortex fragment in the wrong place to cause problems 

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Just now, Ramp said:

To be fair i’d be happy to see a flake at the moment, it feels like we’ve been on the cusp of something since mid Autumn.

Lets hope we are rewarded in the second half of winter.

TBF i never really bought into the cold December, except perhaps the last week when the SSW was forecast.

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12z swingometers for January 25th are similar to previous runs, rather cold but not really exciting. Some colder runs give us hope though

image.thumb.png.bf181ac535379aeda9c21c81eb122014.png

So things in the longer range still up in the air although the PV to the NW is a prominent feature. Its a real shame I can't do as much of an analysis on the ECM as this.

Swingometers for January 20th seems to be either anticyclonic or a rather cold picture so still nothing to get excited about.... but it could be worse really.

image.thumb.png.71347feb6ad7e7da0520f336b20a771e.png

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3 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

For all the talk of bias in the models, I'm beginning to think there's a bias in them towards giving us winter nirvana in FI.

Simply incredibly high ratio of how often those FI charts promise compared to how often they deliver!

I suggested something very similar 2 winters ago:

|"Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17 

Steve Thexton replied to phil nw.'s topic in Model Discussion Archive

hahahaha feb1991, you could have posted that chart as a copy of 95% of the last 4 frames for every run this winter. I'm Only a novice on here but one thing I have learnt is that GFS is a joke beyond about 180hrs and much of the time that is generous! It does provide entertainment mind... even if very frustrating"

 I am a long time follower of this thread and although am frequently lost in the technicalities often put forward am incredibly grateful for the time and efforts given by 'some' of the more knowledgeable - cheers guys it is really appreciated by many on here.

It does seem 'Timmytour,' that someone has told GFS it's winter and it obliges 3 runs out of 4 dropping deep blues and purples post 240hrs across our neck of the woods because "it's winter" and there's a good chance it should be cold and it obliges!

What seems so unfortunate is that so much vitreole can emanate from some on what they seem to perceive as written in stone at 10 days +  

It would be fascinating to survey the number of posts since 1st November that started, or have the line equal or similar to, -  great outputs... "in 10 days time..."  Perhaps, if all only looked at all models up to 240hrs  the animosity between some and between one model or the other would be a little less tiresome.

I will stick my head down now for another couple of years - Happy snowballing!

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Look at the difference at T96 . 

ECM -973A5F5E-D34F-4664-96CD-73743C49FB6B.thumb.png.abb56bfabbc5881271a7480d5b5af516.pngF5B994E5-997F-480A-A4AA-144A52521F3D.thumb.png.668661947d75f7f76ab2938e09cd394a.png

 

GFSB62F13CD-181D-4A51-8EC4-B0E02266B023.thumb.png.2f49acba9da449a3552a26f322c00ec0.pngCB3F6C8F-1381-4B31-89A7-67AADDBBC4AC.thumb.png.467dc448bab7ad17171cc8f23b5d59e2.png

As @AppleUK 123 nicely showed earlier the GFS over the last 4 days of 12z runs it has progressively pushed the slider further and further west/ south, so with a couple of days left to go I expect it to be more inline with other models. Only needs another shunt of 200 miles!!! 

MNR

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This slider and it’s evolution is proving turbulent, yet another solution on EC in the mid term. Though IMO this looks the most favourable for cold to take hold. 

ec 120

D5B4D795-6DB7-47C8-B7A8-75E4F1CDAA72.thumb.png.0bbe3e3af04b6067ee9e34e5cc896cd7.png

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

?Ahem ....

Lol.

 

Steve it’s all about what happens after re model alignment, but the wintryness depends on the slidergate result.  Colder cold continental influence will mean much better result when that trough dives NW/SE.  

 

BFTP

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Will it eject the shortwave cleanly after  day 6!

A change of evolution between day 5 and 6 from the ECM.

Need to keep an eye on the system coming off the esb as well, as that could well flatten the pattern?

EDIT; it appears to be behaving ?

Edited by karlos1983
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And just to add, this ‘slider’ looked to only affect the short term, ECMs evolution says otherwise. The difference between EC and GFS highlight how the path of the low and associated energy could support a surface high ahead (or not in the case of gfs)

FD7A43C0-95BF-409B-86C6-5DA027722A91.thumb.png.4b479b2599e8b257059c926d9284dbdc.png

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Am pretty certain thats a snow event across england between 96 -120 hour ecm!

bit meh away from northern hills

the transition to the nw airflow brings dp's back above 0c

that op is very similar to the single eps cluster from the 00z run ---- spooky!

should clear se at day 7 and the small ridge build in behind ….. then throw a double six and guess day 8 …………...

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