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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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7 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Well it’s good timing as well. Potentially if/once this pattern hits, it could last until the end of meteorological winter. Now there’s a thought....

Timing sounds like a quicker version of 2013, and indeed some of the models are starting to really looking quite 'slidey' in the 8-15 day range which will give some a chance at snow, probably higher risk the further north you go though but each slider gives us that chance of locking into a proper cold pattern.

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FV3 seems to have blown a fuse after churning out that ridiculous 6z run. 💣

 

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do you think that there is enough of a strong downwelling and enough distance bewteen the lobes in order for a proper Greenland high to develop?  IF there is, this could be truly memorable as surely any forcing from the canadian lobe in the strat might actually result in the high toppling from Greenland to Scandi in the trop after the continent has been filled with blistering uppers.

Does it really matter where the lobes end after a split of the vortex? I mean a split is always a split it must have some effect even if minor

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Just now, Faronstream said:

Does it really matter where the lobes end after a split of the vortex? I mean a split is always a split it must have some effect even if minor

Yes. 

If the lobes end up on our side of the Hemisphere then we can end up being under very mild weather while other areas of the NH get blasted with bitter cold and snow.. 

What happens after the split/where the lobes go is almost as important as the warming itself.

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Posted (edited)

Is it me or does this look primed really early!!

7F14461E-260B-4F15-ADC1-624D13AC232E.png

For a decent initial cold snap anyway, looks more west than the 00z

Edited by Ali1977

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Is it me or does this look primed really early!!

7F14461E-260B-4F15-ADC1-624D13AC232E.png

I must admit I was thinking the same, 

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1 minute ago, Faronstream said:

Does it really matter where the lobes end after a split of the vortex? I mean a split is always a split it must have some effect even if minor

It definitely matters, if the lobe hadn't moved to Canada and had only moved to Greenland with the other Lobe in Scandi, there would have been minimal chance of any sustained Greenland blocking, now there is a realistic shot (not guaranteed obviously)

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I'm keeping an eye on my enemy the slug of the high. I see that the overnight run on the ECM it began trespassing over us far too much again. Hopefully this run we can be packing it's bags.

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Posted (edited)

ECH1-120 (1).gifecm12z..

Mopping up...very clean n-hem...and waa.

Pv being bullied now..

And feeling the pinch..

 

Edited by tight isobar

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That 12z GFS is sniffing something wintry with Nly outbreaks in 10days time.

I am sure of it. 

Will it vanish in the next few runs or will it stay?

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GFS And ECM looking very similar at day 6

678BD39B-9B19-4248-9E05-97333EFB06F6.png

DF818C6D-3BC5-4A46-BF59-AC6868A72635.png

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I like EC 144- surely the low near Iceland is going to dive SE at 168..

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20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Northern Annular Mode - same as Arctic Oscillation (AO)

Pacific-North American (teleconnection)

Sub-tropical Jet

Circle of Death - that middle bit of the MJO plot where it isn't influencing the weather much.

(I think! Difficult to keep track of them all!)

Many thanks Mike.

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I like EC 144- surely the low near Iceland is going to dive SE at 168..

don't see why ……. looks consistent 

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Posted (edited)

+192 looks primed and ready!

A1116C98-972B-4195-8299-8BF44348484A.thumb.png.6a8f6fe64088b623b22bc82354df9592.png

should be a decent end coming up

Edited by karlos1983

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A cheeky little northerly from ECM?

image.thumb.png.cd55131aa6e58377a251dcd188c959c4.png

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, booferking said:

PV should/could split Day 9..

ECH1-192.gif

less than the 00z ….. day 10 is a bit early …...

nice little wedge though and those systems have actually meandered south so the jet looks supressed already 

Edited by bluearmy

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Posted (edited)

That’s a great looking chart, as early as Thurs next week. It’s been creeping forward a little - Blue mentioned that earlier too I think. -10s already I to N Scotland, could be whole of UK under -8s by 240

04E90E88-FD86-4402-8FC2-9C92E39FEE79.png

Edited by Ali1977

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