Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Apologies in advanced for the newbie question:

If the lobe over Canada does reach the UK, what weather would that bring? Or is that impossible to answer? 

Unsettled!

Low temperatures would be modified upwards by the journey over a much warmer ocean and mixed out by interaction with warmer air being dragged in form the south, but actual values would depend on how quickly it moved across, and the direction of travel. It doesn't happen very often, but a few forecast charts have shown such an event recently, and it gave 850 temps of around -6 or so (as a guestimate) which would probably result in rain/sleet/snow for higher ground and further north. As a general summary anyway...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Incredible consistency in regards to the slider from ukmo!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Incredible consistency in regards to the slider from ukmo!!

Yeah and now at 120hrs, surely can't be wrong at 120 hrs the UKMO can it???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Incredible consistency in regards to the slider from ukmo!!

GFS showing the same consistency albeit with a correction west slightly (Of the uppers).

gfs-1-90.png?12gfs-1-96.png?6

Edited by frosty ground

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Yeah and now at 120hrs, surely can't be wrong at 120 hrs the UKMO can it???

I have found that in the past, when we get scenarios likes this, there is generally a movement towards a middle-ground solution over the next 4-5 days. However until all main models agree it is difficult to judge.

Edited by Chris K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFS showing the same consistency albeit with a correction west slightly (Of the uppers).

gfs-1-90.png?12

Yup but those colder uppers have been pushing more and more west throughout the day and that slider is being modelled further west with each run!!gfs could be a fail in that sense!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, booferking said:

UKMO vs GFS who wins we all know were the money goes..

UW96-21 (1).gif

gfs-0-96.png

Whilst there are differences, surely the weather at the surface will be the same? Cold rain for most away from the hills and North Eastern areas of Britain?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, booferking said:

UKMO vs GFS who wins we all know were the money goes..

UW96-21 (1).gif

gfs-0-96.png

Wins what tho???? it will flatten out like gfs going forward.This wont stop the energy to the north west pushoing threw in that time frame

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UW144-21.GIF?14-17

Next low coming around the high at 144 on UKM

Milder sector would be noticeable backs the GEFS uptick in temps. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Whilst there are differences, surely the weather at the surface will be the same? Cold rain for most away from the hills and North Eastern areas of Britain?

Well the low is further west on the UKM so the colder air will be to. The direction of travel beyond day 6 is clear but not sure there is no snow to be had from the UKM chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

gfs-0-114.png?12?12

All of a sudden the GFS looks better for beyond day 7 with day 5 also producing more snow for the midlands northwards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could be 'interesting' come late Thursday into Friday? On the subject of 'who wins', who cares: the weather's gotta do what the weather's gotta do!🤠

image.thumb.png.1a0e5f8f5bf8afc11e12aea758c34ded.pngimage.thumb.png.1d6ee4fadd5f1e176b342f7ba9e19952.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Well the low is further west on the UKM so the colder air will be to. The direction of travel beyond day 6 is clear but not sure there is no snow to be had from the UKM chart.

There would be from the first slider but only over hills in the North and East and would soon melt as the next trough bring in milder uppers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Whilst there are differences, surely the weather at the surface will be the same? Cold rain for most away from the hills and North Eastern areas of Britain?

Snow event for some little bit further west were in action.👌

UW96-21 (2).gif

UW96-7.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS pretty consistent today.6-z and 12z wise.poor for us coldies but its what it is

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I wouldn’t be making any assumptions of warm sectors - with cold air following from the wnw, we may see occlusions headed se into slack flow 

ukmo day 5 has reasonably low uppers and a continental flow 

gfs-1-138.png?12

GFS showing just that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, swfc said:

GFS pretty consistent today.6-z and 12z wise.poor for us coldies but its what it is

A contiuation of that slider backing West with its uppers a few miles each run could at least see a few more fruits on the tree by weeks end.

After that.........????

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

could be a stellar fl coming up for what’s it worth,and snow from the slider for some,nightmare  forecasting coming up for  the pros regarding where snow falls or doesn’t later this week,as is nearly always the case for the U.K.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The day 6 outputs are closer in agreement in terms of overall pattern but how they get there still differs . The UKMO is still more amplified and there’s still a chance of some snow as the shortwave energy slides se before hand .

The UKMO also has the sharper troughing over southern Greenland which could be important moving forward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can it get much worse from the charts we were given a few days ago at t300 or so? Someone salt that bloody piece of vortex!!

FF92E504-8D71-40AE-BEAA-F1C6943C5558.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Can it get much worse from the charts we were given a few days ago at t300 or so? Someone salt that bloody piece of vortex!!

FF92E504-8D71-40AE-BEAA-F1C6943C5558.png

Where do you think all that energy is heading?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...