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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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52 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Here is an interesting question I’ve been thinking about.  

I recently read that due to the US federal government shutdown the GFS was affected when it was given a bad data format. Has this been rectified or could The shutdown  still be having an affect on it’s performance?  Apologies if this has already been discussed. 

This prompted me to have a look around to see what's been affected. It looks like the National Weather Service has "excepted status" which means they have to go on working even if they don't get paid, it seems. It's obviously important that things like the radiosonde network are kept running, not just for the GFS but for all the other models which use the data.

This ECM article from 2015 shows how important it is:

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/149/meteorology/global-radiosonde-network-under-pressure

When the Russian met reduced their radiosonde readings from twice a day to once a day, it had a significant effect on the forecast skill.

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We really need at least a steadying hand on the 12z's but preferably an upgrade, or i can see this thing starting to unravel before its even got going.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We really need at least a steadying hand on the 12z's but preferably an upgrade, or i can see this thing starting to unravel before its even got going.ng

It already has buddy!!!i cant see it changing much now!!compared to the snowfest charts we were seeing friday and saturday it just seems to have been delayed more and more!story of the winter really!!nice charts at 240 hours only for it to be flattened  closer to the time!!

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We really need at least a steadying hand on the 12z's but preferably an upgrade, or i can see this thing starting to unravel before its even got going.

Well, my opinion FWIW   is that the azores high has complicated things short term, an unwelcome complication i might add..

The mid term is looking like Exeter have signposted previously with colder air from the NW, we ought to be looking to heights moving into the north Atlantic as the trough(s) head SE into Europe..

I totally understand the frustration to be fair - we have been in this long game for what seems like an age...

Northern areas with altitude could well be very snowy as we head to the last week of Jan..i appreciate that does not please many..

EC46 again will be important, im confident the signal will maintain.

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Just now, shaky said:

It already has buddy!!!i cant see it changing much now!!compared to the snowfest charts we were seeing friday and saturday it just seems to have been delayed more and more!story of the winter really!!nice charts at 240 hours only for it to be flattened  closer to the time!!

I agree snowfest chart operationals have gone, but there is such a big window of opportunity, the potential is still there for some sliders to give dumpings 25th - 30th and blocking to get going in feb, BUT, its got to start a shift back soon, its not  a hopeless situation, there are still a heck of a lot of ens members across suites that are still showing either cold or very cold, or the potential to become either of those two things, all i am saying is this - yes we always get downgrades in the run up to a cold spell, but they usually are replaced with upgrades pretty quickly, my experience tells me if we get another day or 2 of negatives then its time to worry, at the moment though, we still have a shot.

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2 hours ago, winterof79 said:

Hi Knocks can you post the ECM  50 mb geo chart please.

Cheers

I'm afraid I can't winter, sorry

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We really need at least a steadying hand on the 12z's but preferably an upgrade, or i can see this thing starting to unravel before its even got going.

Can you explain what needs a steadying hand, and what might unravel? The models show a system dropping SE bringing wet and windy conditions with the potential of snow over high ground in the north etc?

 

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My Weather App is calling for sleet in Central Suffolk next Tuesday. I can't see much more than that in the near future and the Models look like they may be about to bottle even that.

Edited by Spikey M

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1 minute ago, Lloyds32 said:

Can you explain what needs a steadying hand, and what might unravel? The models show a system dropping SE bringing wet and windy conditions with the potential of snow over high ground in the north etc?

 

The chances of a widespread snow event and decent cold spell between now and around the 5th - 10th feb.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I agree snowfest chart operationals have gone, but there is such a big window of opportunity, the potential is still there for some sliders to give dumpings 25th - 30th and blocking to get going in feb, BUT, its got to start a shift back soon, its not  a hopeless situation, there are still a heck of a lot of ens members across suites that are still showing either cold or very cold, or the potential to become either of those two things, all i am saying is this - yes we always get downgrades in the run up to a cold spell, but they usually are replaced with upgrades pretty quickly, my experience tells me if we get another day or 2 of negatives then its time to worry, at the moment though, we still have a shot.

Completely agree with this, very often you get a few runs that don’t look as good but then they start to improve again getting closer to the event etc

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12 minutes ago, shaky said:

It already has buddy!!!i cant see it changing much now!!compared to the snowfest charts we were seeing friday and saturday it just seems to have been delayed more and more!story of the winter really!!nice charts at 240 hours only for it to be flattened  closer to the time!!

It’s been the same since the start of December with the models, the cold is always 10 days away,,,I keep getting shot down for saying this but it’s true and we are now mid way through January. A little cold blip coming this week though.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The chances of a widespread snow event and decent cold spell between now and around the 5th - 10th feb.

Thanks for the reply. The models haven't been zoning in on any widespread snow event or cold 'spell' and now are backtracking..? It was just a potential slider.

Also anything into FI is more of the same, with a strong Azores High dictating the pattern. 

Edited by Lloyds32

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If you cast your mind back to last year, it was always 10 days away then too. Until it wasn't, that is.

Edited by Spikey M

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11 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm afraid I can't winter, sorry

I take it from what you saw the signal was still for a colder scenario with the Euro trough hence the "Giddy Aunt"

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with the anomaly charts have any of them shown lower heights in the Azores mid Atlantic area ? until this starts being seen you have to wonder if we have any chance of cold , the Azores high is constantly nosing in ...

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6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I take it from what you saw the signal was still for a colder scenario with the Euro trough hence the "Giddy Aunt"

Well all the signs point that way in the medium term at the moment.

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A few posts hidden, Just 'Model' discussion in here please.

Thanks.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Looking forward to some decent 12zs...

Just checked a tweet in that thread and backs up what im thinking regarding mid term..

Hang on in there coldies!

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

At no point has the model output shown a plunge into the deep freeze and a snowfest. It has always been a downward trend in temperatures and a gradual increase in wintry potential over a fairly long period of time, and that remains the case. The up and down mood in here is due to people getting hung up on and sucked in by individual models and charts.

If you qualify that statement with "apart from in FI" then I would agree with you!

It is amazing how easily the latter reaches of FI seem to locate our dream scenarios, in ways that T96-T144 output seems to find nigh on impossible!

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking forward to some decent 12zs...

Just checked a tweet in that thread and backs up what im thinking regarding mid term..

Hang on in there coldies!

Getting to the stage NW when a uptick on the outputs showing some consistency at least before months end!!!!

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So this is how i see it panning out...still

Much as knocks alluded to earlier on ECM 50 mb

Major Euro trough in our vicinity by 24th 

Here is ECM Moyenne

GEFS Moyenne 

CFS Daily

GEM control

 

Screenshot_20190114-135845_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190114-134712_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190114-140229_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190114-140415_Chrome.jpg

 

Overall Northern hemispheric profile not far off this

ECH1-240.gif

Plenty of cold / very cold air to tap into and copious chances of snow events in a very unstable set up.

Obviously the further North and East the better but with scope for rapid improvements to come thereafter

Edited by winterof79

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