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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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TBH  i think i prefer GFS and GFSP to UKMO at 144, American models look to be quicker removing the high to our west than UKMO?

GFS

image.thumb.png.261f564c1cade2d7c9569dd4d0342a44.png

UKMO

image.thumb.png.db8a8cd5d663dc8755c836b9389cec93.png

Not much in it TBH ...not saying UKMO is bad, just not quite as good as GFSP in particular..

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GFS ENS are actually better than the 06z, just need a good ECM now. 

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

just need a good ECM now. 

 

Just need some consistency, Trop effects now showing it’s hand imo it’s atm about the overall picture rather than small changes. 

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16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

There’s some INSANE ensembles.

A573ADA2-0107-4FC4-94BA-6DE329E11DBA.png

B7779BBC-E56F-4C2E-8FFC-295FB6C05134.png

6B316C6E-5D98-45C7-88DA-62D568715E4A.png

95104498-F31E-4D4D-A226-8853460EE589.png

F476B0B8-1DB9-4563-ADCD-FDC36B2FB639.png

42196FC1-8EE2-4867-8365-41D916116F7B.png

32066396-67BE-49DC-89C0-C345098ED793.png

85948E74-CC7F-44E4-A6DD-93B0CFBC9AE9.png

They look fantastic!   And the general pattern looks good enough anyway.

But.......but.... could someone post up the 3 worst looking ensembles?  Just to remind me that, as my optimism, what can go wrong often does go wrong, and show me what the difference could be in the weather we end up getting as opposed to me telling my kids what to be looking forward to!!!!

 

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6 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

They look fantastic!   And the general pattern looks good enough anyway.

But.......but.... could someone post up the 3 worst looking ensembles?  Just to remind me that, as my optimism, what can go wrong often does go wrong, and show me what the difference could be in the weather we end up getting as opposed to me telling my kids what to be looking forward to!!!!

 

Honestly I struggled to find a really bad ones at 288, even this one on the face of it looks bas but could develop would just take longer. Put it this way given the GFS Bias to overdo things there not too many bad ensembles, that’s remarkable in itselfZ

 

F5C1A85F-BA74-48F2-A37B-90E6DBCEE3EF.png

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Impressive 850hPa postage stamps, large majority going for cold..

gens_panel_imp9.thumb.png.b78509432dd8835da3432b6d988e5cd6.png

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Just now, chionomaniac said:

Haha. Good to see that the downwelled trop response is now being picked up by deterministic and ensemble runs. And as @Nick F points out the MJO circling in the right direction. The week has started better than I even imagined as I was expecting this type of output - won’t be long before it is drawn into the ECM 10 day timeframe now.......

Its fabulous to hear you so upbeat C !!

Last week in Jan onwards looking very good as it stands..

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I have just heard from a very reliable source - knows the cousin of a cleaner at NOAA- that they didn’t bother running the GFSp as it would have just been identical to the GFS...in real news as alluded to above it will be down to the government shut down and no one available to correct any starting issues 

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38 minutes ago, Nick F said:

GFS finally picking up on the PNA ridge over western NAM linking with polar height rises working in tandem to force the trop polar vortex and thus jet south across the NAO region, aided by a strong STJ emerging from the USA too. Plenty of cold zonality and cold northerly  shots in the run there to bring some transitory northern snow towards end of next week, even the south in FI/Sat 19th.

The continued presence of the Euro trough all important - as it acts as a sink for all the deep cold arctic air to be pulled into and prevent the dreaded Azores ridge build east into Europe.

Also GFS and EC now showing consistency in retograding the MJO back through colder phases after leaving 8 and a spell of COD before re-emerging in 6 or 7 - this will encourage blocking over the Atlantic and Greenland eventually in tandem with the continued propagating down of easterly winds in the strat towards top layer of the troposphere, increasing threat for UK cold and snow.

684095364_diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member(1).thumb.gif.353cd979286930e8c28f86a356204874.gifECMF_phase_51m_full.thumb.gif.b8b3513263925fb9d776caa55057b73a.gif

 

 

 

Does Net Weather have a list of acronyms ? I am struggling with NAM, PNA, STJ, COD for example.

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3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Haha. Good to see that the downwelled trop response is now being picked up by deterministic and ensemble runs. And as @Nick F points out the MJO circling in the right direction. The week has started better than I even imagined as I was expecting this type of output - won’t be long before it is drawn into the ECM 10 day timeframe now.......

Do you think that there is enough of a strong downwelling and enough distance bewteen the lobes in order for a proper Greenland high to develop?  IF there is, this could be truly memorable as surely any forcing from the canadian lobe in the strat might actually result in the high toppling from Greenland to Scandi in the trop after the continent has been filled with blistering uppers.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, 492 said:

Does Net Weather have a list of acronyms ? I am struggling with NAM, PNA, STJ, COD for example.

Northern Annular Mode - same as Arctic Oscillation (AO)

Pacific-North American (teleconnection)

Sub-tropical Jet

Circle of Death - that middle bit of the MJO plot where it isn't influencing the weather much.

(I think! Difficult to keep track of them all!)

Edited by Mike Poole

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do you think that there is enough of a strong downwelling and enough distance bewteen the lobes in order for a proper Greenland high to develop?  IF there is, this could be truly memorable as surely any forcing from the canadian lobe in the strat might actually result in the high toppling from Greenland to Scandi in the trop after the continent has been filled with blistering uppers.

That’s where the help from the tropics comes into play. Play out how the vortex is getting fragmented and a Greenland block along the line is a great possibility 

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15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

A quick Look at the ENS graph shows there’s little sign of mild as we head toward the last third of January. 

Central South coast 

62F5F3EF-C758-4204-BD4B-5E1A6B0691AB.thumb.gif.8a71ee9df32ecd641ceb110f0ab1e2a6.gif

Some noce ppn spikes as well... ❄️🤷‍♂️

Nice mean of minus 5 for us down here. If we get it, everyone gets it.😄

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Nice mean of minus 5 for us down here. If we get it, everyone gets it.😄

Exactly, everyone should be happy with the that! I’m trying my best not to get to carried away, but it’s proving difficult 

looking forward to seeing the EC extended ens later tonight! Looking for consistency now 🤞 

Edited by karlos1983

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16 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Impressive 850hPa postage stamps, large majority going for cold..

gens_panel_imp9.thumb.png.b78509432dd8835da3432b6d988e5cd6.png

Just had a look at those myself...

IMPRESSIVE!..

CLICKING FORWARDS UPS THE ANTI FURTHER...

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