Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Derecho]

8 minutes ago, khodds said:

No one has really mentioned that the models could be struggling to get a grip on the SSW.. I know last year the models had major wobbles due to the teleconnections. Could this be the case somewhat? I know things certainly seem “better” this time round. 

People also forget to mention the extreme MJO phase that coincided with the beast from the east earlier on this year. Could it be that the influence of the MJO was underrated and that evolution was credited to the SSW too much?

I think if the GFS OP and parallel show the kind of synoptics that can persist for a long period of time, a zonal westerly flow hence the lukewarm feeling in here this evening. Some people will dismiss the GFS outright but I urge caution as people were keenly dismissing it during November and December too yet those months were very mild. I've mentioned this before that I rate the ECM and UKMO are a bit better then the GFS but to outright dismiss the GFS is a rather extreme stance to take. If it showed awesome northern blocking synoptics it would be praised.

[Duane S.]

30 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Hi all can someone explain to me why there is so many posts on here down beat tonight I'm confused ..

As always, It’s more about the actual people themselves who are posting these constant downbeat comments, than the prospects taking a turn for the worse. Some just go looking for it, it’s in their nature. 

No downgrades, no guarantees, same entropy, same great potential. Yet some, always the same ones, are evidently completely incapable of just enjoying the unfolding ups and downs.

[Catacol]

26 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

People also forget to mention the extreme MJO phase that coincided with the beast from the east earlier on this year. Could it be that the influence of the MJO was underrated and that evolution was credited to the SSW too much?
 

I'll jump in here and say no. The Beast was primarily a strat driven event - it was visible up to 2 weeks away and was caused by the speed and extremity of the downwell. The vortex shard that could be seen tracking east to west pulled the trop with it - and it was all about cyclonic energy running the wrong way. The lesson of Feb/Mar 18 was that, when in full bloom, an effective warming bosses the pattern.

People have got very hung up on the route rather than the destination here this evening. Whether we get a full blown slider scenario or a more defined low tracking SE the trend is for a deep Euro trough to establish with a signal for heights to spike to the north once it is in place. This is where we are going - but will it be 3+2 or 4+1 in getting there? The models are really going to struggle with resolving the amount of energy in the Canadian lobe with a slow SSW downwell and a pacific pattern that still wants to work a meridional solution. 

We all have our favourite run - for me, once you get within 72 hours and looking at the specifics of the pattern around the UK the UKMO is best - and nothing to do with national loyalty! ECM has a tendency to overmodel the amplitude of the atlantic at times, and GFS definitely has a tendency to wind up lows too hard and force everything too far east. My best guess is that the GFS scenario is underplaying high pressure resistance and the fact that ECM is very much in line with the UKMO modelling at 96 means we have a solution that will trend closer to slide than not.....but ultimately it all seems a bit irrelevant to get hung up on it because it's where we are once the trough drops into Europe in the middle of next week that counts.

Anyway a mostly enjoyable day. I fully expect more drama tomorrow as the landing zone for cold creeps ever closer....

[A Frayed Knot]

24 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

As always, It’s more about the actual people themselves who are posting these constant downbeat comments, than the prospects taking a turn for the worse. Some just go looking for it, it’s in their nature. 

No downgrades, no guarantees, same entropy, same great potential. Yet some, always the same ones, are evidently completely incapable of just enjoying the unfolding ups and downs.

Well said "they are the ones who wants it to snow pr is it going to snow INTBG 'waiting for the great posters to reply to them . Seen it thousands of times on here all I say is Hit the block button so you cannot see there silly chuck the dolls out of the pram posts -it is going to get very cold even brutal cold after next week with snow and ice for all parts of the United Kingdom. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

ICON going for the EC/GFS blend I spoke of

[Cheshire Freeze]

You can clearly see the imprinted strat on the troposphere here and highlights my post from last night- vortices Canada and Scandi side, with weak split up the middle and suppressed Atlantic HP...For now...

5th Jan strat chart-

16 day downwelling...

This was the situation on the 12th-

So we should see some Scandi HP charts soon enough

 

Edited January 14, 2019 by CreweCold

[Dave Kightley]

UKMO looks OK but strange it updates from 92h hours and updates the 144h chart before the 24h one on Meteociel

Still updating but looks alot further east... Cold uppers are nearly gone at 120h.. 

Edited January 14, 2019 by Dave Kightley

[Cheshire Freeze]

That second LP needs to head SE, with the jet continuing to head NW-SE. No interference from Atlantic HP wanted at this juncture

[Daniel*]

Good stuff from UKMO she sure is sliding.. GFS having none of it like 18Z much less shallow too need to keep AH retracted away from Iberia minor details sure do blow up in these situations.

[Dave Kightley]

UKMO a tad disappointing for this weekend if you want snow.  To far east you would think.. 144h Everywhere but UK with cold uppers!

Edited January 14, 2019 by Dave Kightley

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

UKMO looks OK but strange it updates from 92h hours and updates the 144h chart before the 24h one on Meteociel

Still updating but looks alot further east... Cold uppers are nearly gone at 120h.. 

Infinitely better than the GFS and ICON though...it keeps the jet favourably aligned with cold uppers encroaching from the NW

[snowangel32]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That second LP needs to head SE, with the jet continuing to head NW-SE. No interference from Atlantic HP wanted at this juncture

Yh i think a blend will be the final outcome as every model has its own strength and weakness. But they all still lead to cold after this week. Also look at the deep cold brewing all around us i think when the flood gates open we will see something memorable. Even if we get deep lows from the West i think it could still be snow infact i remember that a few years ago.

[Dave Kightley]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Infinitely better than the GFS and ICON though...it keeps the jet favourably aligned with cold uppers encroaching from the NW

Quite Underwhelming when you get an snow chance then end up with a mild sector like that.. Just our luck this winter to date

[snowangel32]

7 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

UKMO a tad disappointing for this weekend if you want snow.  To far east you would think.. 144h Everywhere but UK with cold uppers!

I wouldnt even look that far ahead the models are having a nightmare with this setup. FI maybe 3 days lol. Still lots to be decided its going to be one hell of a rollercoaster to be on.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

Yh i think a blend will be the final outcome as every model has its own strength and weakness. But they all still lead to cold after this week. Also look at the deep cold brewing all around us i think when the flood gates open we will see something memorable. Even if we get deep lows from the West i think it could still be snow infact i remember that a few years ago.

The strat reanalysis charts will give you guidance as to where we're headed. It's pretty well signposted.

I just hope the HP that will form to our E in a couple of weeks isn't too far E to properly affect us.

[Dave Kightley]

GFS second go at a slider is probably worse... Crap run!  

 

could get interesting in FL though

Edited January 14, 2019 by Dave Kightley

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM ending entirely feasible as we arrive towards second phase of SSW downwell- low heights draining away from Scandi...pressure rising...

Just need strong Candian PV to back a little further west...

Edited January 14, 2019 by CreweCold

[snowangel32]

Ermm gfs where did your storm go.

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

GFS second go at a slider is probably worse... Crap run! 

Watch FI back end though...

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

Ermm gfs where did your storm go.

It's there

[snowangel32]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GEM ending entirely feasible as we arrive towards second phase of SSW downwell- low heights draining away from Scandi...pressure rising...

Yh it finishes on a swan song. Although we still have the Black hole around Greenland we need that to do one. But again all routes lead to cold just diffrent themes on the evolution.

[snowangel32]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's there

It's nothing like the same though Crewe. Yesterday it showed Scotland getting blown away. Now it's like a fart in the wind lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

It's nothing like the same though Crewe. Yesterday it showed Scotland getting blown away. Now it's like a fart in the wind lol

Hairy for N sea coasts though...

[Cheshire Freeze]

And there's your building Scandi HP...

18 day downwell from 12th Jan...not a bad fit...clockwork.

ALL roads will lead to Scandi side blocking towards the end of the month, regardless of what transpires for us inbetween.

Edited January 14, 2019 by CreweCold

[swfc]

Slightly underwhelming output for me this morning or gFS and gFS parra.looks very flat on west to east!!!