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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Yep, warmer SSTs = steeper lapse rates with deep cold crossing seas and thus deeper convection = heavier snowfall. Just need to get deep cold in first place, ie below -10c T850s, which is a tall ask with many cold incursions coming to the UK!

Does this last sentence not highlight the problem with the current scenarios?

Edited by Guest
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, karlos1983 said:

So was the ecm.....

F202957D-DE41-4A62-95E0-3C0520EFA8F2.thumb.png.438dd251a0a6067b3f0842a35a360c8f.png

which ended at 240 like this

35A738FF-A5A7-4C5D-82AF-EF368E12DF87.thumb.png.a935b2aecb90ae9b879a62147d1b020c.png

 

Yes, day 10 encroaches on the period of interest...2 week marker

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Clusters 12Z at D15;

5 out of 6 clusters still in the game for  ridge development to the NW

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011312_360.

hard to call that. Greeny is saying "no, not quite". seems positively biased towards East of Greeny, though, which can't be a bad thing. but then there's the weak heights no mans land and the low pressure over uk outcomes. score 4:2 for snow

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

JMA throws out what I think we’ve seen as a clustered option.

274BC243-B868-4A65-AC41-C4BA286FB5C8.thumb.gif.5bfa7dac0e47bc45996bd5c9efb1afcb.gif

Would need MWB to confirm as he studies them religiously 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

JMA throws out what I think we’ve seen as a clustered option.

274BC243-B868-4A65-AC41-C4BA286FB5C8.thumb.gif.5bfa7dac0e47bc45996bd5c9efb1afcb.gif

Regardless of what happens with the slider it seems nothing is settled thereafter.

As others have said it looks like a case of hoping for some marginal snowfall until some decent blocking develops (should it happen)

I'll take what I can get with any sliders until then.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

EC ens are back 10B39616-1205-4593-B04C-1F3E643F85E1.thumb.gif.a3848d633f62cdd1e32f3e1e5eb30637.gif

looking solid as ever! Very nice

good visual representation of where the GFS(blue line) goes off on one 

Not a single EC member out of 51 supports it.... 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

GFSP out to 222. Flat as a hedgehog caught napping in the fast lane of the M25.

GEFS are largely meh, albeit there are two or three really good ones deep in FI land. If there is a deep freeze coming I sure ain't seeing it. 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 minute ago, Jason M said:

GFSP out to 222. Flat as a hedgehog caught napping in the fast lane of the M25.

GEFS are largely meh, albeit there are two or three really good ones deep in FI land. If there is a deep freeze coming I sure ain't seeing it. 

No GFS ensembles are pretty poor and least cold set for a while but tons of scatter from day 4 which says it all really

graphe3_1000_239_40___.gif

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

EC ens are back 10B39616-1205-4593-B04C-1F3E643F85E1.thumb.gif.a3848d633f62cdd1e32f3e1e5eb30637.gif

looking solid as ever! Very nice

good visual representation of where the GFS(blue line) goes off on one 

We don't want that yellow line at the end to continue going up on the next run though.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Control has same nasty system as the op

image.thumb.png.ca9ef0be10c9ec36651946836a91da1f.png

If it happens anything near that I will be very surprised, I’m not saying there isn’t going to be a milder interlude (fits in well with MO view) but a system like that seems unlikely GFS is notorious for such nonsense.

People trusting the GEFS and OP at this range are making a big mistake in my opinion, it’s a poor model when things get complicated.

 

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
20 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

Does this last sentence not highlight the problem with the current scenarios?

Fortunately the upcoming encroachment of cold in our sights, although not looking to be characterised by particularly deep cold, could be be cold enough at the surface, given slack flow and little mixing, to bring a snowfall risk when Atlantic fronts bump in to it. Snowfall risk from convection less likely initially, more frontal for now, but may change if we get a strong Atlantic/Greenland high build or Scandinavia high to bring in deeper cold. But no concrete signs in high res yet of deeper cold, just in the ensemble guidance for now.

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GFSP out to 222. Flat as a hedgehog caught napping in the fast lane of the M25.

GEFS are largely meh, albeit there are two or three really good ones deep in FI land. If there is a deep freeze coming I sure ain't seeing it. 

 

 

 

 

laughed out loud thanks 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We don't want that yellow line at the end to continue going up on the next run though.

It’s barely going up.. maybe half a C tops, probably skewed by the unlikely 2 or 3 mild rebels of the set. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
9 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GFSP out to 222. Flat as a hedgehog caught napping in the fast lane of the M25.

GEFS are largely meh, albeit there are two or three really good ones deep in FI land. If there is a deep freeze coming I sure ain't seeing it. 

 

 

 

 

Yup very flat GFSP indeed... all hail the SSW..., it's not living up to any hype so far (as far as NH synoptics go). Either that or its incredibly slow to downwell to the surface. The PV looks remarkably well organised on the GFSP. Maybe its just a blip... the 06z had a fair bit of blocking to the NW.

If the PV becomes as well organised as below we will be relying on the Scandi high to deliver the goods... if that doesn't happen we will probably get a very positive NAO phase setting up.

image.thumb.png.1b1e432858e3d64a9dbe3acda588c002.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

It’s barely going up.. maybe half a C tops, probably skewed by the unlikely 2 or 3 mild rebels of the set. 

we either need to see it going down though, or if it stays the same, a good sized cluster falling like a stone, thus indicating a block delivering those brutal uppers.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup very flat GFSP indeed... all hail the SSW..., it's not living up to any hype so far (as far as NH synoptics go). Either that or its incredibly slow to downwell to the surface. The PV looks remarkably well organised on the GFSP. Maybe its just a blip... the 06z had a fair bit of blocking to the NW.

If the PV becomes as well organised as below we will be relying on the Scandi high to deliver the goods... if that doesn't happen we will probably get a very positive NAO phase setting up.

image.thumb.png.1b1e432858e3d64a9dbe3acda588c002.png

yep its a strange one..everything is in place you would think to deliver some very cold synoptics..solar minimum, SSW early doors and faltering El Nino but its a real struggle to get there.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Saying the GFSP output is flat, but it still shows systems moving north west to south east, with plenty of cold air in the mix.

Not that output at that range really matters anyway. Just that the aforementioned trends are still there, rather than a mild west/south west flow.

The outlook hasn’t changed but I think people are looking too much for deeply cold and blocked output which isn’t going to be the case. Not for a little while anyway.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
6 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Hi all can someone explain to me why there is so many posts on here down beat tonight I'm confused ..

When you’ve been on here a long time you realise this place is always the same, it will never change and to be honest I’m glad it won’t! I’m sure the mods aren’t but it’s part and parcel of the UK winter cold chase, toys going out the pram/arguments ect

Put simply there’s been some wobbles, the slider track isn’t nailed down and is looking likely to be rain for quite a few, thereafter there has been a trend today to send a fragment of vortex barrelling across the Atlantic towards us in the medium range, although view this as highly unlikely it may actually help us if it drains some of the purple blob you see over Canada currently. Not to worry, my advice is take this thread with a large pinch of salt just like the models.

I think the models are struggling to process things, there’s a lot of things going on in the atmosphere that aren’t normal and thus there will be volatility in the output.

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

No one has really mentioned that the models could be struggling to get a grip on the SSW.. I know last year the models had major wobbles due to the teleconnections. Could this be the case somewhat? I know things certainly seem “better” this time round. 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

I no I should not post this in here but long range forecast saying locked in cold next weekend and following week very wintery i expect more changes within models upgrade the cold very soon .

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