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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS has no clue, the difference between 12z and 18 z is laughable..

Hope its had a change of clothes with it for the walk of shame in the morning.. ?

No it’s going to be stripped naked for that after all it’s for the scrap soon anyway

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I'm going to burn the corduroys!  Well, back to the models (sorry mods), the GFSP is fairly consistent at 96 vs the 12z

image.thumb.png.07093fa1d18a43d1bb260fb93697a486.png

Less of a circular shape to the low maybe?

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13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You could say that about ANY model output at day 10 in a high uncertainty scenario... 

Anyone expecting an op run of any modelling product to nail a pattern in a volatile atmospheric base state at day 10 is living in cloud cuckoo land to be frank. 

There is a difference between nailing something down to the shortwave detail and showing the complete opposite pattern to the last run by day 8, ie deep trough where last run  there was a very strong ridge

What would be cookoo land would be tossing a coin and saying either one of those is correct.

Edited by Mucka
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FWIW, the GFS 18z ends where, in my opinion, we're likely to end up late Jan into early Feb. Mid Atlantic heights arching into Scandi and troughing dropping S through the N continent. 

If we get lucky we could even see a brutal airmass advected west round the back door...

Edited by CreweCold
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19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Is it? 

According to meteociel the UKMO is running at 1.25 and the GFS 1.0

ECM trumps them both at 0.5

I think that is for chart  plotting purposes, nothing to do with the size of the grid blocks the models run with.  The resolutions  that the various models run with is available, look it up if you want to. 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

FWIW, the GFS 18z ends where, in my opinion, we're likely to end up late Jan into early Feb. Mid Atlantic heights arching into Scandi and troughing dropping S through the N continent. 

Well I think we can all agree we'd be happy with that!?

image.thumb.png.91a1b86d0995a8ead8cca64c8c5b64b1.png

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

FWIW, the GFS 18z ends where, in my opinion, we're likely to end up late Jan into early Feb. Mid Atlantic heights arching into Scandi and troughing dropping S through the N continent. 

Quite plausible, the only small question is what will the weather be like between now and then ?

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Just for context the 18z GFS low at roughly 216hrs would be the 15th deepest EVER recorded winter low pressure. Should give an idea of just how extreme the op is.

Synoptic extremes do happen occasionally, but they usually have a few more things going for them than we have at the moment...

Edited by kold weather
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Just now, Mucka said:

Quite plausible, the only small question is what will the weather be like between now and then ?

My bet would be on alternating colder and milder interludes...just like the Metoffice have stated. This before a more pronounced cold period.

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

FWIW, the GFS 18z ends where, in my opinion, we're likely to end up late Jan into early Feb. Mid Atlantic heights arching into Scandi and troughing dropping S through the N continent. 

If we get lucky we could even see a brutal airmass advected west round the back door...

Cool. Hanging around for the parallel? ?

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18 minutes ago, Law of averages!! said:

. Your last comment, just the same as that PROFESSOR... who in the early 2000s said ' would there be SNOW in western Europe '... this really ticks me off, patterns and cycles yes... GW/CC NO

Look, I'm not saying this kind of thing will be instant, it's a slow gradual process, evolution and nature always is. The MODEL OUTPUT ? over the last couple of years in winter has been great, we have had some really exiting modeling. However there can be no denial that things are warming up, the evidence is everywhere. 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

My bet would be on alternating colder and milder interludes...just like the Metoffice have stated. This before a more pronounced cold period.

Seems like a good bet Crewe.

We at least know there will be some mobility for a good while yet, it all depends on whether we can stay on the cold side of any sliding/disrupting Atlantic lows - the devil is in the detail as they say.

Could be a damp squib until we get some proper blocking rather than transient ridges or we could get lucky and get a snow fest, the smart money would be on something in between.

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

My bet would be on alternating colder and milder interludes...just like the Metoffice have stated. This before a more pronounced cold period.

A very ordinary build up to winter weather I would say.......

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just for context the 18z GFS low at roughly 216hrs would be the 15th deepest EVER recorded winter low pressure. Should give an idea of just how extreme the op is.

Synoptic extremes do happen occasionally, but they usually have a few more things going for them than we have at the moment...

Well we're going to see a densely cold profile of air cross the N Atlantic sector quite possibly at some point down the line. As Bluearmy says, it's within the envelope and remains a possibility, however unlikely. 

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Seems like a good bet Crewe.

We at least know there will be some mobility for a good while yet, it all depends on whether we can stay on the cold side of any sliding/disrupting Atlantic lows - the devil is in the detail as they say.

Could be a damp squib until we get some proper blocking rather than transient ridges or we could get lucky and get a snow fest, the smart money would be on something in between.

Generally the knife edge scenarios produce the most wide spread snow...battlegrounds with solid HLB and active weather systems bumping into it from the west or south as could be the case, as is the nature of the beast with SSW's anything could happen...... 

Edited by Mark Parsons
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

My bet would be on alternating colder and milder interludes...just like the Metoffice have stated. This before a more pronounced cold period.

Agree, although i don't think the mild periods will actually be mild as such, they just might mean a wintry mix so yes - some rain mixed in, btw the strat charts now (T0) do still allow a window down the line for Greeny height rise but you always seem to just get that bit of residual trop vortex which may push it more icelandic, i want  to see another beast long term but the reason i wan't to go the Greeny / slider route is i don't want to have the scandi high as last chance saloon and if it fails then there is nowhere to go, just feel that if we get a greeny, the fact that the strat split wasn't far and wide might actually eventually play into our hands as there might be enough forcing from the canadian segment to prevent what happened last year with an abrupt end to a stonking but short spell.

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19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL 18Z is  SNOWMEGEDDON  DRUNK.

Dont even know how to spell it lol..

Fixed that spelling for you @northwestsnow ?? Honestly GFS is on one this week. Not that any of us have a crystal ball but seriously the swings from run to run make even the Brexit negotiations look stable. Let’s see what rhe Para has to  offer...little change up to 96... potentially slightly less progressive?

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2 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Look, I'm not saying this kind of thing will be instant, it's a slow gradual process, evolution and nature always is. The MODEL OUTPUT ? over the last couple of years in winter has been great, we have had some really exiting modeling. However there can be no denial that things are warming up, the evidence is everywhere. 

Sorry I disagree BIG time... so what's happening in EUROPE or the STATES eastern side nearly every yr... is GW/CC... sorry no chance, I'll lose my balloon knot before any of that lol

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