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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I after say I am struggling to remember the last really strong northerly flow, I mean 09-10 was dominated by northerlies, as was a fair chunk of December 10, but after that, not so much.

I can't even really remember a decent toppler such as Jan 04 in recent years either.

Feb 3-5 '03

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Nope gfs still the same!!massive fail if it backsdown!if not then what a victory regarding the slider at least!!

Regarding the 1st slider, the gfs will never back down at t 96.....expect the Euro to blend in tmw morning...

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Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow
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Yeh surely just surely gfs cant be wrong at 96 hours!!i.dont want it to be right and am.not being negative i really am startin to think the ukmo and ecm havs it too far west!!its a horrible feeling but am afraid gfs could be right on this occasion!!

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Expect GFS and ECM to meet in the middle tomorrow. When they disagree like this at short range that is usually what happens - There is rarely a clear winner, just a middle ground solution 

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The NMP is actually moving westward at a rapid rate, towards the eastern hemisphere. In the past half century it has gone from the central Canadian arctic islands near Resolute to a position near 85N 175W which is basically north of the Bering Strait. It has been gaining longitude faster but its rate of motion has been similar, it's just that at 85N or higher, the longitude lines are almost within walking distance of each other. I do feel this has some impact on climate, with the atmosphere responding to the changes in magnetic field, but without much definition to that process, so if the NMP were to keep on moving west and then continue its long-term arc to the southwest, it could end up near Murmansk before the middle of the 21st century. That should, in theory, chill Europe and warm North America. We only have a vague idea where the NMP was before about 1700, after which time it was wandering around the Canadian arctic from west to east until 1840, then north and more recently northwest to almost due west. But some research indicates it may have been northeast of the Kola peninsula at some point around 200 to 800 AD before presumably heading east (or perhaps across the pole) to Canada. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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12 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yea this is pretty strange place at the minute all i can see is cold from next weel onwards.

J192-7.gif

You are correct all roads are taking us to cold. This weather game is a serious hobby for some and the wind up merchants (same old screen names)know they will get a reaction from some of us by their constant posting of inaccurate rubbish often without even a chart to back it up. 

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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but it hasn’t happened yet, so how do you know?

it may be correct, it may not. We’ve seen GFS back down at T48 in the past!

10+ years of model watching experience and analysis ?

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5 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Regarding the 1st slider, the gfs will never back down at t 96.....expect the Euro to blend in tmw morning...

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Why won't the GFS back down at t96 and why should the ECM?

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19 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Wouldn't warmer sst's produce more convection if the 850's/tm2's are low enough,seems possible?

Yep, warmer SSTs = steeper lapse rates with deep cold crossing seas and thus deeper convection = heavier snowfall. Just need to get deep cold in first place, ie below -10c T850s, which is a tall ask with many cold incursions coming to the UK!

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Well a few backing the GFS @ T 96 . Mmm so we reckon ECM and UKMO are wrong at day 4 ? I honestly can’t see that . I could see a blend tho . Not that it matters anyway it’s after that what matters . 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Help me out here - which gfs is right?  The old one (which would be toast this month if not for the Mexican wall) or the new one ????. 

Can't believe this needs clarifying... But here goes. IMO the GFS at 96 hours will be broadly how things play out with regards to the first 'slider'. More likely a GFS weighted blend of ECM/UKMO/GFS

That's the 'old' GFS may I add. 

Anything after that first slider attempt is not what we're really discussing here. 

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Well maybe the GFS is in disagreement with the Euro's at short range, but it's also in disagreement with itself.  At 144.....

18z image.thumb.png.7878845397d6f76ca214f97a514225c8.png 12z image.thumb.png.7ab78f3efba18fdd4a2ae4f40057b530.png

Still, as Mike said just now we're not at the interesting part of the run yet

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yep, warmer SSTs = steeper lapse rates with deep cold crossing seas and thus deeper convection = heavier snowfall. Just need to get deep cold in first place, ie below -10c T850s, which is a tall ask with many cold incursions coming to the UK!

I guess we have been unlucky the previous years,surely we are due one.

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