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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    We need to be really careful here of not falling into the trap of talking total nonsense!

    Even JMA going for it, T192:

    image.thumb.jpg.bbf801611afaf4b1c338188e8477ee4a.jpg

    ??

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    So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

    I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

    It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    We need to be really careful here of not falling into the trap of talking total nonsense!

    Even JMA going for it, T192:

    image.thumb.jpg.bbf801611afaf4b1c338188e8477ee4a.jpg

    Yea this is pretty strange place at the minute all i can see is cold from next weel onwards.

    J192-7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    49 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Right the Icon has fired up ?

    Lets reset & go again.

    Just a reminder the boom charts are at day 10 'as well as' day 4...

    Plenty of snow about this week, Thursday seems trough day to me!!

     

    Yep, not far away now

    gfsnh-0-90.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    31 minutes ago, Don said:

    This might be rubbish, but I can't help but think, had these same synoptics occurred in the 90's and especially 80's, there would have been a greater chance of countrywide snow events, particularly for the southern half of the country with less marginal temperatures?

    I don’t know, there are some pretty impressive cold temps appearing even from GFSp on pM air.  Let’s see how we pan out, although I do think the warm AMO has affected things .....that cycle is due to switch.

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    I think there is some credence to increasingly warmer temperatures globally bringing warmer SSTs around our shores thanks to longer warm/hot periods becoming more common prior to winter onset. This could moderate northerly/northwesterly arctic flows, due to longer sea track, more in some years with warmer SSTs in NE Atlantic and around UK, certainly I think northerlies are often not as cold as they used to be. However, I think continental landmasses still cool down like they used to away from the warmer oceans that are more sensitive to global warming, so if we tap into continental flows they could still be as good as 80s and 90s if the source gets very cold, which I believe still can. The continental land area of eastern USA saw some record lows a few winters back, the same winter we had all that flooding, 2014?. Look at March 2018 for UK, lowest max temp on record for March, from a continental source.

    I do not have any stats to prove the above, so anyone feel free to prove otherwise, just more of educated hunch I guess.

    I agree that we can still get just as good cold spells from continental flows.  However, I also agree that northerly arctic flows do not seem to have the same bite they used to.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    I think there is some credence to increasingly warmer temperatures globally bringing warmer SSTs around our shores thanks to longer warm/hot periods becoming more common prior to winter onset. This could moderate northerly/northwesterly arctic flows, due to longer sea track, more in some years with warmer SSTs in NE Atlantic and around UK, certainly I think northerlies are often not as cold as they used to be. However, I think continental landmasses still cool down like they used to away from the warmer oceans that are more sensitive to global warming, so if we tap into continental flows they could still be as good as 80s and 90s if the source gets very cold, which I believe still can. The continental land area of eastern USA saw some record lows a few winters back, the same winter we had all that flooding, 2014?. Look at March 2018 for UK, lowest max temp on record for March, from a continental source.

    I do not have any stats to prove the above, so anyone feel free to prove otherwise, just more of educated hunch I guess.

    Wouldn't warmer sst's produce more convection if the 850's/tm2's are low enough,seems possible?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    33 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

    Thank you Nick.

    I appreciate your time

    I can't verify atm whether this is the case or not as I don't have time, but if this was the situation (re the SSW)  then it certainly didn't do the great Jan '87 cold spell any favours; once we got past the middle of the month, we were stuck under a rather benign, dirty HP which lasted until the end of the month but triggered an arduous, painfully boring thaw in the process. Temperatures then took a significant upturn at the beginning of February and that was the winter that was. I remember it vividly.  

    Edited by Easton Luna Boys
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    6 minutes ago, Don said:

    I agree that we can still get just as good cold spells from continental flows.  However, I also agree that northerly arctic flows do not seem to have the same bite they used to.

    I still vividly remember a bbc forecast early 2000s sometime presented by Rob McElwee showing a N'ly topper scenario with max temperatures around 0c for large parts of the country. This was the end of January sometime. 

    We struggle to get Arctic Northerlies that potent anymore. 

    I presume it's due to the amount of sea ice we've lost over the years. 

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    6 minutes ago, Don said:

    I agree that we can still get just as good cold spells from continental flows.  However, I also agree that northerly arctic flows do not seem to have the same bite they used to.

    I after say I am struggling to remember the last really strong northerly flow, I mean 09-10 was dominated by northerlies, as was a fair chunk of December 10, but after that, not so much.

    I can't even really remember a decent toppler such as Jan 04 in recent years either.

    Edited by kold weather
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    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    I still vividly remember a bbc forecast early 2000s sometime presented by Rob McElwee showing a N'ly topper scenario with max temperatures around 0c for large parts of the country. This was the end of January sometime. 

    We struggle to get Arctic Northerlies that potent anymore. 

    Yeah it's was Jan  2003 I believe 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    I still vividly remember a bbc forecast early 2000s sometime presented by Rob McElwee showing a N'ly topper scenario with max temperatures around 0c for large parts of the country. This was the end of January sometime. 

    We struggle to get Arctic Northerlies that potent anymore. 

    wonder if its anything to do with the magnetic North Pole moving Eastwards at a crazy rate. I see they had to do an emergency upgrade to GPS this week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    Still loving the look of that huge Siberian high out in cuckoo land:

    gfsnh-0-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I still vividly remember a bbc forecast early 2000s sometime presented by Rob McElwee showing a N'ly topper scenario with max temperatures around 0c for large parts of the country. This was the end of January sometime. 

    We struggle to get Arctic Northerlies that potent anymore. 

    I presume it's due to the amount of sea ice we've lost over the years. 

    Sounds like the 30th January 2003 when lots of motorists got stranded on the M11?  I think the lack of sea ice is a contributing factor to more wishy washy northerlies these days.

    EDIT:  Leo97t beat me to it!

     

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, Don said:

    Sounds like the 30th January 2003 when lots of motorists got stranded on the M11?  I think the lack of sea ice is a contributing factor to more wishy washy northerlies these days. 

    Yes I had 2003 in my head. 

    I know it was a Thursday or Friday that I remember the chart being from. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    I after say I am struggling to remember the last really strong northerly flow, I mean 09-10 was dominated by northerlies, as was a fair chunk of December 10, but after that, not so much.

    I can't even really remember a decent toppler such as Jan 04 in recent years either.

    Feb 3-5 '03

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    GFS has had this 'slider' situation nailed down all along IMO. No back tracking on the 18z- in fact at 108 hrs it's flatter than the 12z.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Yeh surely just surely gfs cant be wrong at 96 hours!!i.dont want it to be right and am.not being negative i really am startin to think the ukmo and ecm havs it too far west!!its a horrible feeling but am afraid gfs could be right on this occasion!!

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Expect GFS and ECM to meet in the middle tomorrow. When they disagree like this at short range that is usually what happens - There is rarely a clear winner, just a middle ground solution 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The NMP is actually moving westward at a rapid rate, towards the eastern hemisphere. In the past half century it has gone from the central Canadian arctic islands near Resolute to a position near 85N 175W which is basically north of the Bering Strait. It has been gaining longitude faster but its rate of motion has been similar, it's just that at 85N or higher, the longitude lines are almost within walking distance of each other. I do feel this has some impact on climate, with the atmosphere responding to the changes in magnetic field, but without much definition to that process, so if the NMP were to keep on moving west and then continue its long-term arc to the southwest, it could end up near Murmansk before the middle of the 21st century. That should, in theory, chill Europe and warm North America. We only have a vague idea where the NMP was before about 1700, after which time it was wandering around the Canadian arctic from west to east until 1840, then north and more recently northwest to almost due west. But some research indicates it may have been northeast of the Kola peninsula at some point around 200 to 800 AD before presumably heading east (or perhaps across the pole) to Canada. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    12 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Yea this is pretty strange place at the minute all i can see is cold from next weel onwards.

    J192-7.gif

    You are correct all roads are taking us to cold. This weather game is a serious hobby for some and the wind up merchants (same old screen names)know they will get a reaction from some of us by their constant posting of inaccurate rubbish often without even a chart to back it up. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but it hasn’t happened yet, so how do you know?

    it may be correct, it may not. We’ve seen GFS back down at T48 in the past!

    10+ years of model watching experience and analysis ?

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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