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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Steve, we were asked to add date and time when posting mobile piccs, could you oblige with this one please?

thanks

 

240 chart from 12z today.

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21 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Where is the snowline? And please don't say M4 north.

North of a line from say Cardiff to oooh…. London.  😈

Edited by Skyraker

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8 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

So we have no northern blocking, a strong PV over Greenland, a strong Atlantic High hopefully being nice, so we can feed off the cold air scraps sent in a SE direction. Mixing in and out of milder air could be an issue? Also with -5 air above, 2m temps will be what 3-5 degrees? This sort of pattern seems the complete opposite of what we were hoping for post SSW. 

I would agree 100%

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Scraps you say......

A761B055-992D-4634-BD1C-4B6BF40D8516.thumb.png.b8a3c3a9894fc6efa74b977f8a6768f8.png

-5c 850’s you say

DEFE8716-3155-45F9-9428-F29BBBB4DB22.thumb.png.7400734ea70b5b5fdb9cd2a32ad3369a.png

Standard winter with PV over NE Canada would be a problem. But it’s not a standard winter now....

For balance and closer to home.

image.gif

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1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

For balance and closer to home.

image.gif

Not really. The GFS was nowhere near the euros on the 12z and I’m not a fan of saying this, but that run should be binned!

Edited by karlos1983

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No game changers at T0 from the ECM ensembles.

image.thumb.jpg.042e31b843516b0dc3f37a9535b6aeb2.jpg

why do they put this chart out?  Any way cold is now virtually assured,  the ensemble output will start to help us unpack how that cold will impact the different regions of the country.

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

Superb ECM mean at T 240:

image.thumb.jpg.675cabbe28ab2020c400ec281d0b2afa.jpg

Looks a fair reflection of the Det all the way through to be honest. I think 🤔 

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not really. The GFS was nowhere near the euros on the 12z and I’m not a fan of saying this, but that run should be binned!

Binned why? Interested as to why you feel it should be binned when it mirrored the Icon earlier.....Do not really understand the gfs bashing on this thread then it's great when it produces 2010 360 hour Greenland highs and brings them in.

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow

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15 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

So we have no northern blocking, a strong PV over Greenland, a strong Atlantic High hopefully being nice, so we can feed off the cold air scraps sent in a SE direction. Mixing in and out of milder air could be an issue? Also with -5 air above, 2m temps will be what 3-5 degrees? This sort of pattern seems the complete opposite of what we were hoping for post SSW. 

Great post, 3C to 5C max's for most is what we're looking at, just below average and nothing out of the ordinary for mid to late January. It will mainly be sunny and dry for most. 

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1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Binned why? Interested as to why you feel it should be binned when it mirrored the Icon earlier.....Do not really understand the gfs bashing on this thread then it's great when it produces 2010 360 hour Greenland highs and brings them in.

I know mate - it's all quite silly really: the GFS is the bee's knees, when it shows ten-foot-deep snowdrifts!

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4 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Great post, 3C to 5C max's for most is what we're looking at, just below average and nothing out of the ordinary for mid to late January. It will mainly be sunny and dry for most. 

Not true, for my location the GFS mean shows a max of 1 degree above freezing from 20th to the end of the run.

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Once the SSW begins to downwell later this week and the models pick this up I am pretty sure these charts will look totally different come the end of this week. From what I've read the models will not show SSW response untill it hits the trop. Very much still in game and some!

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Jeez whats happened to this thread. Its been invaded by the U12 mild brigade.

Indeed Steve 😴. The ECM mean looks rock solid out to T240 . When do you think the gfs will stop it’s 💩

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I showed the peachy T+240 Ecm 12z ensemble mean on previous page but let's not forget next thurs / fri which show arctic air flooding south!..and to think the real excitement may come during the following week (s)!!!👍😍😉:cold-emoji:❄❄❄❄❄❄

EDM0-96.gif

EDM0-120.gif

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