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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    ECM 120 sliding the low nicely with still -6c in the East, -5c across England

    could be a snow event for the NW there & down into wales !

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ECM 96 is much better than UKMO with -7 touching 41A186EF-03D7-4DE9-86EA-A7DADB45B74B.thumb.png.0df81fab31e0d87c6421d54dcca80fe1.pngBristol Midday Thurs !

     

    Like your style Steve?

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    Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton
    1 hour ago, IDO said:

    This Winter long-recurring theme of Atlantic High is again evident on the GFS, just pushed further east, ergo worse, compared to the 06z! So cold shots interspersed by milder sectors, not really the plan. This scenario has been constant in the GEFS as a cluster.

    We need to get the PV lobe over the NW to be ejected in blocks rather than a slow flow of systems that have little chance of suppressing that omnipresent pulse of heights. The GEM has moved towards that synoptic and joins the ECM. However, the latter flips every run to a different output around D10 so tonights run will be important.

    Hopefully, even the worse GFS run will lead to cold/snow eventually but another delay is wearing! The T300 chart is not what I was expecting in the last week of January:

    gfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.b717836852324a1d0f3d6642749a1eae.png

    Of course usual caveats to the wonders of the GFS...

    You’re worrying over a GFS chart at T+300

    Seriously???

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Can't split ECM and UKMO at T120, 

    image.thumb.jpg.9d6a3baaabe2440ae86624cb79110ac8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.19e5535185103739304537e5958f8caa.jpg

    Spot the difference!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    ECM 120 sliding the low nicely with still -6c in the East, -5c across England

    could be a snow event for the NW there & down into wales !

    Aye, on the anniversary too Friday 18th

    ECM1-120.GIF?13-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Who said expect downgrades ?

    6E25DE25-64EA-4AFB-B997-001DC61145DC.thumb.png.14dc6665a9db8003f11a332027fe9e47.png

    very good ECM so far... 

    No one lol I said we shouldn't be surprised ………….let it run and then comment . ?

    Edited by Banbury
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    Can't split ECM and UKMO at T120, 

    image.thumb.jpg.9d6a3baaabe2440ae86624cb79110ac8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.19e5535185103739304537e5958f8caa.jpg

    Very good news. GFS without doubt will fall in line. Can’t see both ECM and UKMO being wrong now.

    @Banbury was just a bit of fun. ? I know exactly what you meant, and it was wise. At some point things have to peak in terms of cold, but I don’t think we are there yet! 

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Winter Hill said:

    You’re worrying over a GFS chart at T+300

    Seriously???

    But if that showed a 1987 /1991 uppers style Easterly, he would be saying its FI - that's my point.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Remarkable consistency from the Big 2 T144:

    image.thumb.jpg.c8e3e610f50025a067bbe82aa7c5673c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7720e2ee6bc890424007567cab38cf6c.jpg

    But with ECM we get to see the next four frames!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    Interesting. Lining up to slide - but the depth of the low to the NW is much deeper than on the 0z. Will this impact on the block's ability to hold? Bated breath.....

    ECM1-144.thumb.gif.f2921aeb934ef69e7c3395e9958038ca.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Second day on the trott we have a surpressed 00z ECM then a progressive 12z - so you end up with a big swingometer-

    ?irritated.

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, BlackburnChris said:

    prectypeuktopo.png 4 days away.

    WOW - where did you pull that from!!!!   -   i have seen some loopy netweather GFS PPN type charts in my life but i don't think i have ever seen one that good, even at 300+, never mind 4 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    Get in t168 

    40A20E25-4648-48AC-8154-3E2014990811.png

    Nice chart ice cold . Will it be likely to see -8 more widely say  at T192.

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
    4 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

    prectypeuktopo.png 4 days away.

    Bizarrely GFS P precipitation charts on Netweather are broken and seem to show continuous precipitation over the whole map on various frames.

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    52 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Para looks very snowy to me?

    To the north and north/west and higher elevations, I can't ever remember a synoptic similar to that which has brought widespread heavy to other regions though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    Just now, sorepaw1 said:

    Nice chart ice cold . Will it be likely to see -8 more widely say  at T192.

    Sorry mate got ahead of myself that was yesterday’s 12z 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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